by shortonoil » Sat 07 Feb 2009, 16:57:33
Sixstrings said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's refreshing to hear a governmental agency speaking the truth. The more debt the government takes on, the more investors will rush into treasuries, and the less they'll invest in the private market.
Sorry if this deflates your optimism toward truthful reporting by the CBO, but what they are saying is mostly a lie of omission. It is just more smoke and mirrors which confuses, and extends the denial time of the clueless American public.
First: $780 billion will not be enough to prevent the meltdown from continuing. $780 billion will not even cover financial losses in the housing and commercial markets for ‘09. Compared to the $7.7 trillion loss in household net wealth, or the $20 trillion in equity and bond losses in ‘08, $780 billion will almost be nothing more than a nuisance installment! Its impact on future years will probably be so small as to be undetectable.
Second: crowding out private investment is synonymous with producing deflation in private asset classes. In an economy that can not be grown, printing “naked currency” does not stimulate economic activity, it merely transfers wealth from asset classes into consumables. Asset values decline in direct proportion.
Third: the stimulus plan has nothing to do with stimulating the economy. Consumption will not increase, asset values will not improve, nor will job numbers grow. The stimulus plan is not being put forward to save the economy, it is being initiated to extend the life span of the present monetary system. How the money is spent is “technically” irrelevant, as long as it is spent.
The fundamental monetary problem is that the credit markets have collapsed. There is now not enough new debt formation occurring to produce the money to service the debt that is already outstanding. Without a massive injection of “naked currency” to supply the liquidity to service that debt, ‘09 would be a year of tsunami sized defaults. $10s of trillions in needed debt maintenance would not occur; a true financial Armageddon would take place.
Of course, the real problem is that we are rapidly approaching the end of the fossil fuel age. Energy requirements for the general economy have basically been ignored by neoclassical economics (which is analogous to ignoring gravity in Bungee jumping). The energy needed to fuel our modern 21’st century economy is declining by 5% per year. The idea that energy value is best correlated with Available Energy (not necessarily Ps vs. Qs) is incomprehensible to the preprogrammed neoclassical economic mind. Admitting that thermodynamics is a better substantiated science, than the “dried bones” and “chicken blood” voodoo approach of economics, is of course unacceptable.
In defense of the CBO, pumping the needed $5 trillion into the economy in ‘09 would most likely cause complications in “
the long run”. By using the proverbial economic “
IF”, if there are future years for this economy. The chances of that occurring, appear to be getting negligibly smaller by the day!
Available Energy