[anarky321]

no web stream?

[AAA]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', 'n')o web stream?

[TheDude]

Keep an eye on MS's webcast page: morgan stanley Resources | BNET.

Sadad, interesting.

[timmatoil]

Any one else think oil, like gold, could act as a store of value rather than a growth investment?

[Graeme]

Energy Market Analysis

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he EIA released their Short term Energy Outlook on Tuesday morning. The report was bearish but it did not present as bearish an outlook as the IEA report released last Friday. In a market that is looking for every excuse in the world to move to higher ground there are definitely degrees of bearishness. Following are some of the main highlights from the report.

World oil consumption is expected to decline by 1.35 million bpd in 2009 compared to 2008. EIA assumes that the global gross domestic product (GDP), weighted by oil consumption, will fall by 0.8 percent this year. Consumption is expected to fall by 1.6 million bbl/d in the OECD countries and rise by 270,000 bbl/d in non-OECD nations. The bulk of the decline is expected to be concentrated in the first half of the year. World oil consumption is expected to grow by 1.1 million bbl/d in 2010, driven by a recovery of global GDP growth to 2.6 percent.

Non-OPEC supplies for 2009 are expected to be close to last year’s levels. The United States , Brazil , and Azerbaijan will show large growth in supplies this year. However, these increases in production are offset by large declines in production from Mexico , the North Sea, and Russia . Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by a modest 260,000 bbl/d in 2010, due to increasing production from Brazil , the United States , and the former Soviet Union .

Estimated OPEC crude oil production fell by 1.1 million bbl/d during the fourth quarter of 2008, reaching 30.6 million bbl/d, then fell by an additional 2.1 million bbl/d in the first quarter of 2009 to 28.5 million bbl/d. EIA expects production to remain close to that level in the second quarter, then gradually increase to about 29.2 million bbl/d in the fourth quarter. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production in 2009 to average 28.8 million bbl/d, then rise to 29.8 million bbl/d in 2010 in response to an expected increase in world oil consumption.

OECD commercial inventories at year-end 2008 stood at 2.68 billion barrels. At 56 days of forward cover, OECD commercial inventories were above average levels for that time of year. Preliminary estimates suggest that OECD commercial inventories at the end of March 2009, measured in terms of days of forward supply, continued to remain substantially above average levels for this time of year

[Armageddon]

There won't be a crises. It doesn't take much gas to walk or bike to your local soup kitchen.

This will be interesting to watch.

>>> Bloomberg <<<
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Oil Traders Are Likely to Start Selling Stored Crude, JBC Says
By Alexander Kwiatkowski

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Oil traders who have been keeping as much as 100 million barrels of crude on tankers to profit from forward prices are likely to start selling the cargoes as the incentive to store wanes, consultant JBC Energy said today.

BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Hess Corp. are among oil companies whose first-quarter earnings were boosted by storing crude in tankers. By anchoring laden vessels offshore, companies were able to profit from the so-called contango, where crude contracts for delivery in the future are more expensive than near-term supply.

“Oil should soon start to return to the market as contango structures appear to be narrowing, especially in the U.S.,” Vienna-based JBC said in an e-mailed research note today. JBC estimates that as of end-April, 40 million barrels were being stored in the U.S. Gulf Coast while as many as 24 million barrels were anchored off the U.K. and West Africa.

[...]

[copious.abundance]

Oops, sorry pup I didn't see you posted it in the other thread.

[peeker01]

Here is an excellent article supporting the popular contention that the price of oil is
disconnected from supply and demand.

http://www.businessinsider.com/oil-mark ... del-2011-8

[Graeme]

Iranian sanctions and potential impact on oil market

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith an expected drop in demand for oil this year and increase in non-OPEC supplies, the oil market is waiting anxiously to see how US-led Western sanctions against Iran will unfold after they complete full year in effect.

Since they came into force in the summer of last year, there was a trend of fluctuation between one month and another in the volume of Iranian exports, though the general trend seems to be going downward.

For instance, last March Iranian exports plunged by almost one quarter from the level achieved in the previous month, or February, when an estimated 810,000 barrels per day were believed to have been loaded for export against 1.1 million bpd in the month before.


Despite the resolve of the US and its European allies to continue with their sanctions program, the main consumers led by China and many other Asian importers were exempted or found ways as Japan did by providing its own insurance.


The other tactic used is to use barter as an economic arrangement to buy for itself some of its needs against some crude cargo.

Ironically one of the biggest developing markets for Iranian barter deals is Iraq who a decade ago was invaded by the Bush administration with the hope of turning it into a base for change in the region.


So it seems the near and short term outlook for the oil market will be governed by regular adjustments by key players led by the Kingdom hoping to strike some kind of a balance in the mean time.

[vox_mundi]

OPEC Added Billions to Cost of Oil Production, New Research Says

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]By limiting production in member countries, OPEC drove up oil production costs and reshaped the world’s oil industry.

DURHAM, N.C. – OPEC’s effects on the world economy extend far beyond the prices that consumers see at the pump, says new research from Duke University, KU Leuven and UCLA.

Over the course of 40 years, the oil industry cartel not only drove up the cost of crude oil production by some $160 billion, it also helped change the direction of the oil industry, the authors say.

The authors examined 34 years of data on crude oil production, from 1970 to 2014. The study was unusually comprehensive, covering 13,248 oil fields worldwide — virtually all of the world’s oil active fields. The results appear online in a new National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper.

All of these expensive technologies have evolved because OPEC countries limit oil output.

“Many of these technologies – fracking, for instance — would not exist if not for the activities of the OPEC cartel,” Collard-Wexler said.

While the paper focuses on OPEC, the findings’ implications extend to the role of monopolies and near-monopolies, the authors say, suggesting that monopolies’ economic harm can extend far beyond prices.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]“Our findings suggest that monopolies raise the cost of production”

[rockdoc123]

The operating costs quoted are incorrect. The author seems to be mixing full cost breakeven costs with lifting costs. As an example for Ghawar the lifting costs are a bit less than $7, likely in the $5 range. But for the Bakken $51/bbl reflects a breakeven cost or the cost to explore, develop and then lift a barrel of oil. Lease operating costs (or lifting costs) for the Bakken are generally less than $10/bbl. In the north sea OPEX is high at around $40/bbl for some fields a product of expensive platforms and necessary maintenance.

[Plantagenet]

More bone-headed errors occur in the panel describing Alaska.

There is no oil producing are in Alaska called the "North Shore." Perhaps they meant the North Slope?

The photos show offshore rigs in Cook Inlet---an area that produces only a tiny amount of oil.

Most of the oil in Alaska comes from land based oil fields---not offshore as Duke University wrongly believes.

SHEESH!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'M')ore bone-headed errors occur in the panel describing Alaska.

There is no oil producing are in Alaska called the "North Shore." Perhaps they meant the North Slope?

The photos show offshore rigs in Cook Inlet---an area that produces only a tiny amount of oil.

Most of the oil in Alaska comes from land based oil fields---not offshore as Duke University wrongly believes.

SHEESH!

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
America is, as you know, a bit different from the rest of the world. Lately, this exceptionalism has been more noticeable than usual in the oil market: It isn't just the outright price where a gap has opened up. The shape of the futures curves -- how barrels for delivery down the road are being priced -- for U.S. and international grades of crude oil are also striking different poses: The discount for West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, blew out from about $4.50 a barrel to $6 in the run-up to and immediate aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in late August and early September. This made sense as disruption to refineries, pipelines and ports kept barrels trapped in the country. But the spread had already doubled in the month before the storm hit Texas and Louisiana. And two months on, with the U.S. oil industry having largely

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdamB', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') The discount for West Texas Intermediate, or WTI, blew out from about $4.50 a barrel to $6 in the run-up to and immediate aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in late August and early September.

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The U.S sanctioned five Iranian entities for their work on the nation’s ballistic missile program and signaled that more punitive measures lay ahead in response to the Islamic Republic’s suppression of anti-government protests. The entities, none of which are publicly traded, are being designated for being owned or controlled by Iran’s Shahid Bakeri Industrial Group, the Treasury Department said in a statement released Thursday. “The United States will continue to decisively counter the Iranian regime’s malign activity, including additional sanctions targeting human rights abuses,” Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in the statement. The Trump administration plans to ask the UN Human Rights Council to convene an emergency session on protests in Iran in which the U.S. believes at least 21 people have been killed and more than 1,000 arrested, U.S. officials have said. Thousands of Iranians have taken part in unrest across the country

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')In a few days, U.S. President Trump may try to re-impose sanctions on Iran, a dramatic step that could heighten tensions between the two countries. Some analysts believe the move could contribute to a much broader global economic power shift from the U.S. to China. The connection between the issues may not be obvious at first glance, but by seeking to isolate Iran from the international market, Iran could look elsewhere. Because the global oil trade is conducted in greenbacks, the U.S Treasury was able to restrict Iran’s ability to access the global financial system in the past. That made it extremely difficult for Iran to sell its oil prior to the thaw in relations in 2015, which kept millions of barrels of daily oil production on the sidelines. This time around, however, the U.S. will likely go it alone. The Trump administration

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
China, the world’s biggest oil buyer, is opening a domestic market to trade futures contracts. It’s been planning one for years, only to encounter delays. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange, a unit of Shanghai Futures Exchange, will be known by the acronym INE and will allow Chinese buyers to lock in oil prices and pay in local currency. Also, foreign traders will be allowed to invest -- a first for China’s commodities markets -- because the exchange is registered in Shanghai’s free trade zone. There are implications for the U.S. dollar’s well-established role as the global currency of the oil market. 1. When will trading begin? From March 26. Daytime trading hours will be from 9 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. to 3 p.m. local time and at night from 9 p.m. through 2:30 a.m. The push for oil futures

[AdamB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')A flurry of recent oil market forecasts have sent a lot of mixed messages about what to expect both in the near-term and over the next several years. Is U.S. shale about to flood the market, setting off another bust? Or is demand so strong that with the oil market already rapidly tightening, another price rally is in store? Obviously, nobody knows how to untangle the long list of variables that will ultimately decide what happens next, but the divergence in opinions is rather striking. By and large, the discrepancy is over the difference between the short-term and the medium-term. Surging U.S. shale production is keeping the market well supplied right now, but soaring demand and the lack of major conventional projects in the works will lead to a price spike somewhere down the line. Nevertheless, there is also disagreement over the immediate