Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Singularity University

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby kmann » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 15:29:31

They are actively hiring for the manufacturing plant. An aquaintance interviewed for an engineering position there - didn't get it because of lack of experience with silicon mfg. They could be cranking out panels by the end of the year.
User avatar
kmann
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 551
Joined: Mon 25 Jul 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 18:38:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', ' ')to solve daunting problems like poverty, famine, disease, global warming and dwindling energy supplies.


There are already loads of solutions devised for these problems. They simply aren't being implemented on significant scale. There's really no need for a Wankers University to spend more time jerking off trying to come up with more solutions that won't be implemented.
:roll:

Geez, you're cranky today.

Loads of solutions to global warming? Name five. How about loads of solutions to world energy supplies (again, name five).

What's your problem with this university?
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
User avatar
Narz
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat 25 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Location: the belly of the beast (New Jersey)

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 18:43:55

Ok, I read some of your concerns. Basically you're cranky cause they're talking about things that don't exist yet. Great, lets just disband all research & development & shun all new technology. Better yet, lets go back to the stone age. Even better lets not even use sticks to catch termites like monkies. Free full frontal lobotomies for all!
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
User avatar
Narz
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat 25 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Location: the belly of the beast (New Jersey)

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Pops » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 19:55:17

I'm not sure where this should go but it is not for PFTF.

I'll stick it the open for suggestions as to it's appropriate place.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 21:03:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Is under $1 per watt cheap enough?


That's BS. It's not really $1 a watt until these things are being sold for $200 a pop to Joe Peaknik.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')stuff still doesn't happen overnight.


That's where the "day late" part comes in.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')So you read stuff about how something was just developed and expect it to instantly appear on the market?
...
That just isn't fair,


Collapse isn't going to just patiently wait for this stuff to come to market in order to "be fair".

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Hardly, it's right where it needs to be. None of those things you listed were well developed because it was not economical to do so. Oil per barrel in the late 1990's cost about as much as a Big Mac meal (from what I recall, haven't been to mickey D's in a while), so we didn't need it, but now that is starting to change.


After we fall off the oil production plateau into the 9+% decline rates predicted by the IEA don't expect oil prices to follow a gentle enough upward trend for new products to gradually be released and commoditize to save the day.
mos6507
 
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 21:11:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'O')k, I read some of your concerns. Basically you're cranky cause they're talking about things that don't exist yet. Great, lets just disband all research & development & shun all new technology. Better yet, lets go back to the stone age. Even better lets not even use sticks to catch termites like monkies. Free full frontal lobotomies for all!


Nobody is advocating that. We're just trying to throw some water on the typical polyanna "they'll think of something" argument against worrying about peak oil.
mos6507
 
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 21:45:09

edited for off topic
Last edited by Ludi on Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:50:28, edited 1 time in total.
Ludi
 

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 21:45:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
Nobody is advocating that. We're just trying to throw some water on the typical polyanna "they'll think of something" argument against worrying about peak oil.


100% agree.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 22:36:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e need it now, and it's not available.



With gas prices this low, we don't absolutly need it. We could use it, but we don't have to have it right now. In 10 years we absolutly will need it, which is right when it becomes available.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat's BS. It's not really $1 a watt until these things are being sold for $200 a pop to Joe Peaknik.



According to Ludi's post thin film solar becomes available later this year, of course you overlooked that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')ollapse isn't going to just patiently wait for this stuff to come to market in order to "be fair".


Still convinced the world is going to end right when we hit the peak? There's still the oil on the other side of the peak we can use to transition away from it. We still have synthetic oil as a stopgap if that becomes necessary.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')obody is advocating that. We're just trying to throw some water on the typical polyanna "they'll think of something" argument against worrying about peak oil.


It sounds a lot like "give up", "we're doomed", "there's nothing we can do".
Y2K is real. Y2K is going to rock our world.
-Kunstler

Don't respond, I'll just ignore it.
-MonteQuest
User avatar
outcast
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 885
Joined: Mon 21 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 23:49:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')Nobody is advocating that. We're just trying to throw some water on the typical polyanna "they'll think of something" argument against worrying about peak oil.

But studying this stuff in a university isn't about "they", it's about... well, you if you're the one studying.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Loads of solutions to global warming? Name five. How about loads of solutions to world energy supplies (again, name five).


Read my posts over the past four years. I've posted about solutions pretty constantly.

Yeah, well name two here (one solution to global warming & one to world energy supply needs) cause I don't recall seeing either & I always read your posts when I see them in a thread.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'W')hat's your problem with this university?


Hey, if people want to go to school to wank off, good for them! But I thought MIT (Masturbating Into Tomorrow) was the place for that.

Wanking off is a fun way to avoid doing something more useful.
What in the hell are you talking about? People studying the issues of the day in college are "wanking off" but 14,000 posts on a peakoil forum is somehow more noble (no offense but really)?

Were the guys who made the technology & exchange of ideas that led to the Internet "wanking off", how about climate scientists, are they wanking too? :roll:

Your analogies confuse me. Please Ludi, enlighten me what is useful & what is not!

Seems like there is alot of hostility on this forum to anyone who dares to dream of a brighter tomorrow & is willing to do work & research towards that dream. Yeah, some dreams won't materialize, that's just life. Doesn't mean any research along similar avenues is also doomed.

I know many here are Luddites who're convinced all progress is bad & we'd have been better off if we'd never even invented the wheel but it's too late for that shit now. We've got 7 billion people on the planet & just quitting now is not an option. Like it or not technology (along with social change) is necessary to help mitigate mass-suffering & death. Permaculture gardens are not going to feed 7 billion people. Ironically I'd be willing to bet 95% or more of the people who've even heard of permaculture (jumping the gun in guessing this is one of Ludi's solutions) would never even have heard of it if it weren't for... The Internet (OMG, techno-fix Image).
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
User avatar
Narz
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat 25 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Location: the belly of the beast (New Jersey)
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby rsch20 » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 05:47:22

the 'where is the good stuff' argument is an argument from ignorance. a logical fallacy. the equivalent of sticking your fingers in your ear and going 'la la la i can't hear you'.

Accelerating Technology is as real a concern as Peak Oil, drum it into your skulls. Not only that it isn't necessarily a utopian thing to consider but could even more of a threat than PO.

luddites.
User avatar
rsch20
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 275
Joined: Mon 26 Sep 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 10:28:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')With gas prices this low, we don't absolutly need it. We could use it, but we don't have to have it right now. In 10 years we absolutly will need it, which is right when it becomes available.


If we had this discussion back when oil was $145 bbl would you have been predicting BAU for the next 10 years? Don't expect the timing to work out as perfectly as you currently predict.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')According to Ludi's post thin film solar becomes available later this year, of course you overlooked that.


These press releases are not credible. Their pricing also universally refers to utility-grade orders, not consumer retail prices. I'm all for utility grade solar but I think cheap rooftop solar is much more transformational as a way for individuals to take personal ownership of their own energy supply.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Still convinced the world is going to end right when we hit the peak?


Not necessarily, but the closer we cut it, the more risk we're assuming. Waiting for that last minute hail-mary pass is not cause for a "don't worry be happy" attitude.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')It sounds a lot like "give up", "we're doomed", "there's nothing we can do".


It's very possible we're doomed--if we do nothing but "trust the market" to develop and roll out new technology on its usual glacial timetable, ignorant of the pending collapse scenarios.
mos6507
 
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 10:46:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')I know many here are Luddites who're convinced all progress is bad & we'd have been better off if we'd never even invented the wheel but it's too late for that crap now. We've got 7 billion people on the planet & just quitting now is not an option.


I agree with that. Even if you think there will be a massive die off, I would suggest we make a good show of it. I will not hold the banner for infinite growth in a finite world, however. We shouldn't have to power all the way down to the stone-age as long as we can get a handle on population.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Like it or not technology (along with social change) is necessary to help mitigate mass-suffering & death. Permaculture gardens are not going to feed 7 billion people.


Yes, but if anything can be learned from recent events, is that big business is too slow to adapt to abrupt changes in the market landscape.

The automakers, for instance, had bet the farm on cheap oil and were not agile enough to retool for a future of $4 gasoline.

But it seems the credit crisis and the has caused many here to have a much too carefree attitude about the future. Yes, we have a reprieve, but like Obama said, it's "shock to trance". Have we been scared straight? I don't think so. Renewables always suffer in times of cheap energy. The market really wants to wait until the last minute and that will only work in a slow crash scenario.

Even in a depression with lowered and flatlined oil demand I expect that when we fall off the global oil production plateau that we will still see TSHTF in a painful way.
mos6507
 
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 10:59:44

It's interesting people don't see permaculture as "technology and social change" when of course it is both.

Why is "technology" only something shiny, plastic and chrome? Why aren't systems of design using plants "technology"? Not shiny enough?
Ludi
 

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 12:22:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's very possible we're doomed--if we do nothing but "trust the market" to develop and roll out new technology on its usual glacial timetable, ignorant of the pending collapse scenarios.



There's a number of reasons we should have taken getting off oil more seriously much earlier than we did; sociological, health, environmental, even national security. There were a number of reasons we shouldn't of just trusted the market.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If we had this discussion back when oil was $145 bbl would you have been predicting BAU for the next 10 years?



Depends on what was causing it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')es, but if anything can be learned from recent events, is that big business is too slow to adapt to abrupt changes in the market landscape.

The automakers, for instance, had bet the farm on cheap oil and were not agile enough to retool for a future of $4 gasoline.


Not all of them failed, Ford and GM were seriously mismanaged to varying degrees and they had a range of other serious issues. The European and Asian automakers did fairly well at $4 per gallon because unlike Detroit because they had far better management that didn't put all their eggs in one, gas guzzling basket.
Y2K is real. Y2K is going to rock our world.
-Kunstler

Don't respond, I'll just ignore it.
-MonteQuest
User avatar
outcast
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 885
Joined: Mon 21 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 13:58:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')I know many here are Luddites who're convinced all progress is bad & we'd have been better off if we'd never even invented the wheel but it's too late for that crap now. We've got 7 billion people on the planet & just quitting now is not an option.


I agree with that. Even if you think there will be a massive die off, I would suggest we make a good show of it. I will not hold the banner for infinite growth in a finite world, however. We shouldn't have to power all the way down to the stone-age as long as we can get a handle on population.

Agreed.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Like it or not technology (along with social change) is necessary to help mitigate mass-suffering & death. Permaculture gardens are not going to feed 7 billion people.


Yes, but if anything can be learned from recent events, is that big business is too slow to adapt to abrupt changes in the market landscape.

The automakers, for instance, had bet the farm on cheap oil and were not agile enough to retool for a future of $4 gasoline.

But it seems the credit crisis and the has caused many here to have a much too carefree attitude about the future. Yes, we have a reprieve, but like Obama said, it's "shock to trance". Have we been scared straight? I don't think so. Renewables always suffer in times of cheap energy. The market really wants to wait until the last minute and that will only work in a slow crash scenario.

Even in a depression with lowered and flatlined oil demand I expect that when we fall off the global oil production plateau that we will still see TSHTF in a painful way.

IMO, superior technology already exists but the big corps are waiting to unless it until people get desperate. There's still a ****load of money to be made off oil.

Might some conspiracy-esque but to me it's just common sense.

There is a good chance we will not be able to transition in power even if/when the powers that be honestly try to (for the sake of continuing their profit stream) though.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t's interesting people don't see permaculture as "technology and social change" when of course it is both.

Why is "technology" only something shiny, plastic and chrome? Why aren't systems of design using plants "technology"? Not shiny enough?
??? I'm the one who said permaculture is/was technology and never would have reached even the edges of mainstream if it weren't for another technology called the Internet.

Why don't you respond to my questions? Or are you just here to troll?
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
User avatar
Narz
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat 25 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Location: the belly of the beast (New Jersey)
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 14:31:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')t's interesting people don't see permaculture as "technology and social change" when of course it is both.

Why is "technology" only something shiny, plastic and chrome? Why aren't systems of design using plants "technology"? Not shiny enough?


It's not technology if you can't plug it in or put a battery in it. And it's not positive social change if people view permaculture as a well armed doomstead with tall walls/hedges to hide the fact you've got food from the [s]future zombies[/s] neighbors.
mos6507
 
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 14:44:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '
')Why don't you respond to my questions?


Because I'm mostly ignoring you, I guess. You seem really upset at me for some reason and I'm not sure why.

You don't seem to remember what I've posted, so I guess it didn't make much of an impression.

But ok, I'll play along. I'll list some solutions which will probably get shot down by you anyway.

Global warming:

1. Moratorium on new power plants
2. Super efficiency and conservation programs
3. Stop plough agriculture
4. Restore forests and prairies
5. Population reduction

World energy supply needs

1. Super efficiency and conservation programs
2. Population reduction

These are not the only solutions, of course. People are welcome to come up with more if they want to. However, it is my personal point of view, in my own opinion, that much of the "We need to research solutions!" is either out of ignorance of existing solutions or a way to avoid implementing existing solutions.

In my opinion, personally. Your mileage may vary. Etc etc etc.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 14:47:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')It's not technology if you can't plug it in or put a battery in it. And it's not positive social change if people view permaculture as a well armed doomstead with tall walls/hedges to hide the fact you've got food from the [s]future zombies[/s] neighbors.


Yep, well, that's unfortunate. I guess they actually don't care to learn much about it.

I'm completely wasting my time here, apparently.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Narz » Thu 05 Feb 2009, 17:41:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'B')ecause I'm mostly ignoring you, I guess. You seem really upset at me for some reason and I'm not sure why.

I'm in a funk lately but that doesn't take away from my criticism.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ou don't seem to remember what I've posted, so I guess it didn't make much of an impression.

You have, I just don't remember you tackling large scale issues.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'B')ut ok, I'll play along. I'll list some solutions which will probably get shot down by you anyway.

Global warming:

1. Moratorium on new power plants
2. Super efficiency and conservation programs
3. Stop plough agriculture
4. Restore forests and prairies
5. Population reduction

No new power plants? No "plough agriculture"? Population reduction? Those aren't realistic & they aren't going to happen voluntarily in the US anyway. You have to be realistic.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')orld energy supply needs

1. Super efficiency and conservation programs
2. Population reduction

In other words you don't have any solutions.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')hese are not the only solutions, of course. People are welcome to come up with more if they want to. However, it is my personal point of view, in my own opinion, that much of the "We need to research solutions!" is either out of ignorance of existing solutions or a way to avoid implementing existing solutions.
Population reduction is not a solution to our energy problems. Neither is efficiency alone, that will only slow the decline rate, surely you know that already though.

You don't have realistic solutions so why bash other people who are trying to find them?

You're living up to your location (except the idiot part, I don't think you're an idiot, I just think you have the human tendency to bash people who have a different worldview).
“Seek simplicity but distrust it”
User avatar
Narz
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2360
Joined: Sat 25 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Location: the belly of the beast (New Jersey)
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests

cron