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The Singularity University

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The Singularity University

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 05:28:11

New graduate school sets out to make sense of rapidly changing technology

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')AN FRANCISCO - Technology is changing the world so rapidly that even geniuses need help making sense of it all.

That's the idea underlying Singularity University, an unconventional school that will host its first class of 30 graduate students this summer. They will take a nine-week course exploring ways to ensure technology improves mankind's plight instead of harming it.

Singularity's founders planned to unveil the school's grand ambitions Tuesday in Long Beach, Calif. at the annual Technology, Entertainment and Design conference, known as TED.

The school will be based on NASA's Silicon Valley campus and revolve around the concept that the exponential advances occurring in various fields should be melded to solve daunting problems like poverty, famine, disease, global warming and dwindling energy supplies.


[web]http://singularityu.org/[/web]

Supposedly, the movie, The Singularity Is Near is due out soon; the website says "early 2009". But I haven't heard about any release date yet.

A while back, I emailed James Kunstler about the Singularity Conference which took place in September 2008 in Silicon Valley. I think Kunstler is at his satirical best when he's tackling something like "delusional techno-triumphalism". As he says in his blog:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kunstler', 'T')echno-grandiosity and techno-triumphalism must be be sedulously monitored and guarded-against. They jointly amount to the great mass psychosis of our time and culture. This array of traps -- from proposed flying cars to "renewable" motor fuels -- is the ultimate Faustian "bargain." It will be at the heart of any campaign to sustain the unsustainable, sucking us ever more deeply into the diminishing returns of over-investments in complexity.


I was hoping he would make the trip out to The Singularity Conference to report on it - and to ask questions of the participants. I thought it was a great chance for Kunstler to get another piece published in Rolling Stone or somewhere -- I love to read about all the Singularity stuff, but also like to laugh -- but Kunstler didn't want anything to do with The Singularity people.

At the conference, there had been at least 8 speakers representing Cambridge University's Global Catastrophic Risks Conference -- and not a single one of them spoke about energy supplies or anything remotely connected with a Hubbert curve. Why not?

Someone should have been there to ask about energy and resource depletion. Maybe it was the $500 entrance fee that kept people out. I wonder who's going to be coughing up the $25,000 for a 9-week course?

James, are you out there? Why not bring some of that cynical wit of yours to bear on The Singularity?

[web]http://singularity.com/themovie/[/web]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Singularity Movie', 'T')he intertwined B-line (between interviews with notable people) is the story of Ramona, Ray Kurzweil’s female alter ego, starting with actual footage of Kurzweil creating and demonstrating his virtual creation at the 2001 TED (Technology, Entertainment, Design) conference, where Ray – as Ramona – sang Jefferson Airplane’s “White Rabbit.” This presentation was the inspiration for the Warner Brothers’ movie Simone, where the character played by Al Pacino turns himself into Simone, just as Ray turned himself into Ramona at TED.

The B-line continues as Ramona goes into the future where she becomes more and more humanlike and independent - a Pinocchio story. She combats an attack of self-replicating nanobots (gray goo) and hires Alan Dershowitz (who plays himself ) to press for her legal rights as a “person.” The judge rules that he will grant her full legal personhood if she passes a “Turing test,” in which she must appear indistinguishable from an actual human in a text conversation. She gets coaching from Tony Robbins (who plays himself ) to become “more human.” The story continues from here. . . .
Last edited by Carlhole on Tue 03 Feb 2009, 05:44:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Sixstrings » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 05:36:29

Please tell me federal tax dollars are not funding this university on the NASA campus.

As for the "singularity.." as far as it relates to computing (that is, the point at which artificial intelligence becomes self-aware), it is an inevitability. Moore's Law on processing power has held up for what? 30, 40, 50 years now?
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 05:48:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'P')lease tell me federal tax dollars are not funding this university on the NASA campus.


Federal tax dollars are not funding this university on the NASA campus.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 08:38:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') while back, I emailed James Kunstler about the Singularity Conference which took place in September 2008 in Silicon Valley. I think Kunstler is at his satirical best when he's tackling something like "delusional techno-triumphalism".



I'm not sure why you would want to waste your time with such a neo-luddite doomsayer.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 09:05:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') while back, I emailed James Kunstler about the Singularity Conference which took place in September 2008 in Silicon Valley. I think Kunstler is at his satirical best when he's tackling something like "delusional techno-triumphalism".


I'm not sure why you would want to waste your time with such a neo-luddite doomsayer.


I don't know how old you are, but if you happen to recall how incredibly funny Hunter S. Thompson was when he was writing for Rolling Stone in his Gonzo-journalistic style in the 70's...

THAT'S what the permaculture, sustainability, peak oil and new urbanist movements need in a writer. James Howard Kunstler shows at least a few decent glimmerings of that style here and there in his blog.

The whole idea of a Neo-Luddite taking on the sheer gaudiness, the extravagant waste, the upside-down values, and the general unholy consumeristic binge of American life is inherently funny. When you take someone who already has a raging hard-on for all those things and put them up against the Singularitarians, that's REALLY potentially funny stuff.

Of course, it takes a genius and a man-of-the-times to really make a reader weep with laughter. Kunstler may not be a Hunter Thompson but there is no reason why he shouldn't take a few cues from the old Gonzo-ist. When he doesn't allow his anger to bury it, Kunstler DOES show wit in some of the things he writes.

And I thought the Singularity Conference would be a rich vein to mine for new material.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 10:58:44

Google and Nasa back new school for futurists

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FT.com', 'G')oogle and Nasa are throwing their weight behind a new school for futurists in Silicon Valley to prepare scientists for an era when machines become cleverer than people.

The new institution, known as “Singularity University”, is to be headed by Ray Kurzweil, whose predictions about the exponential pace of technological change have made him a controversial figure in technology circles.

Google and Nasa’s backing demonstrates the growing mainstream acceptance of Mr Kurzweil’s views, which include a claim that before the middle of this century artificial intelligence will outstrip human beings, ushering in a new era of civilisation.

To be housed at Nasa’s Ames Research Center, a stone’s-throw from the Googleplex, the Singularity University will offer courses on biotechnology, nano-technology and artificial intelligence...

The school is backed by Larry Page, Google co-founder, and Peter Diamandis, chief executive of X-Prize, an organisation which provides grants to support technological change...
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Windmills » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 11:46:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'P')lease tell me federal tax dollars are not funding this university on the NASA campus.

As for the "singularity.." as far as it relates to computing (that is, the point at which artificial intelligence becomes self-aware), it is an inevitability. Moore's Law on processing power has held up for what? 30, 40, 50 years now?


I don't know see how curve-fitting a trend makes the leap to inevitability. How many thousands of trends lay in wrecked heaps by the roadside of history, trends that lasted more than just a mere few decades, trends that lasted for centuries and longer. People thought those much longer trends were inevitabilities, too. There has to be a much firmer arguement for this than simply, "it is, so it will always be." Isn't that one of the first attacks against peak oil, too? "We've always had oil, so we always will." I'm sure there's a nice word from a logic studies class that defines and refutes how faulty this line of thinking is.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 11:50:32

Edited for off-topic
Last edited by Ludi on Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:49:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 12:01:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')There are already loads of solutions devised for these problems. They simply aren't being implemented on significant scale. There's really no need for a Wankers University to spend more time jerking off trying to come up with more solutions that won't be implemented.
:roll:


I bet there was at least one smart Easter Islander who said "you know, maybe we shouldn't chop down every tree" or "maybe we shouldn't have so many kids" but ultimately he got drowned out by the dumb majority.

Considering polls like this coming out of a mostly secular educated country, I don't see how we could ever reach enough concensus over issues like global warming, peakoil, or overshoot to really make a difference at the macro scale.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby heroineworshipper » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 20:58:08

Amazing how many people have $25,000 for a 9 week class in an age of distance learning & IPTV lectures.
People first, then things, then dollars.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Tue 03 Feb 2009, 22:32:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') don't know how old you are, but if you happen to recall how incredibly funny Hunter S. Thompson was when he was writing for Rolling Stone in his Gonzo-journalistic style in the 70's...



Little before my time.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onsidering polls like this coming out of a mostly secular educated country, I don't see how we could ever reach enough concensus over issues like global warming, peakoil, or overshoot to really make a difference at the macro scale.



The be fair the British education system is even more of a trainwreck than ours is, but that is pretty much inline with polls from the US.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Pops » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 00:59:36

I don't understand why you posted this in PFTF?

Any particular reason?
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 03:51:49

Because rapid technological advance is part of our future?
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby lowem » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 10:22:36

The doomer faction needs a response :

Doomer University.

Official training videos shall be the Mad Max movie series.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby katkinkate » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 11:12:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'B')ecause rapid technological advance is part of our future?


For how much longer?

Past trends are no guarantee of future performance.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 11:32:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'B')ecause rapid technological advance is part of our future?


For how much longer?

Past trends are no guarantee of future performance.



A while, much to the doomers annoyance. The rate of technological advance has been increasing, and the rate of increase has been happening more and more rapidly in recent years.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 11:35:42

edited for off topic
Last edited by Ludi on Sun 08 Feb 2009, 21:49:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 12:33:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')A while, much to the doomers annoyance. The rate of technological advance has been increasing, and the rate of increase has been happening more and more rapidly in recent years.


So we can watch porn on a smartphone. Big deal. It's a day late and a dollar short where we need it most. Where are the really cheap solar panels? Where is EESTOR or silicon nanowire batteries? Where are platinum-free fuel cells?
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby outcast » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 12:54:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's a day late and a dollar short where we need it most.


So that's it? Game over? Run for the hills?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')here are the really cheap solar panels?

Is under $1 per watt cheap enough?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ilicon nanowire batteries


The concept wasn't even proven until last year, there still needs to be more R&D on how to make them in bulk. While advance is more rapid than before, stuff still doesn't happen overnight.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')here are platinum-free fuel cells?


Again, this concept wasn't proven until recently

So you read stuff about how something was just developed and expect it to instantly appear on the market? That just isn't fair, it still needs some more time for development, however what that does mean is we can expect it within the next 5-10 years, which is when we will start to really need it.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's a day late and a dollar short where we need it most.

Hardly, it's right where it needs to be. None of those things you listed were well developed because it was not economical to do so. Oil per barrel in the late 1990's cost about as much as a Big Mac meal (from what I recall, haven't been to mickey D's in a while), so we didn't need it, but now that is starting to change.
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Re: The Singularity University

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 04 Feb 2009, 14:00:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'I')s under $1 per watt cheap enough?


Not available yet.

"AVA Solar is a manufacturer of thin-film photovoltaic (PV) modules.

AVA Solar’s proprietary technology will enable the production of low-cost PV modules and will significantly reduce the cost of generating solar electricity. Production capacity will be scaled rapidly to meet the fast growing demand for solar energy.

Using cadmium telluride (CdTe) thin-film technology, AVA Solar has perfected a robust, industrial-scale, continuous process for producing solar PV modules. Over the past five years, AVA Solar has successfully performed testing simulating 30 years of field exposure. These tests indicate efficiency and stability performance comparable to the leading CdTe-based modules currently on the market.

AVA Solar is currently in the process of scaling up its initial production lines for a variety of large-scale, grid-connected applications.

AVA Solar intends to enter large-scale production in 2009."


http://www.avasolar.com/

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 's')ilicon nanowire batteries


The concept wasn't even proven until last year, there still needs to be more R&D on how to make them in bulk. While advance is more rapid than before, stuff still doesn't happen overnight.


So they also aren't available.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')here are platinum-free fuel cells?


Again, this concept wasn't proven until recently.

So you read stuff about how something was just developed and expect it to instantly appear on the market? That just isn't fair, it still needs some more time for development, however what that does mean is we can expect it within the next 5-10 years, which is when we will start to really need it.

We need it now, and it's not available.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t's a day late and a dollar short where we need it most.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', ' ')so we didn't need it, but now that is starting to change.

Fantastic! It'll be great when these things are actually available, instead of just intended to be available sometime.

Intention is not the same as existence. Plans are not the same as reality.

Folks talk about their plans here all the time, but unless they actually DO something, it's all just words.

In my big fat opinion. :)
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