by ReverseEngineer » Mon 19 Jan 2009, 13:55:26
The whole idea that this is a "paradox" and is discussed this way is in itself paradoxical. Its not REALLY a paradox, its axiomatically wrong which is why you seem to get a paradox out of it. You made false assumptions to begin with of course, that is WHY you get a paradox.
Money as debt demands some folks go into debt, elsewise you have no money. At the same time however, up until the credit market went into lockup mode, Americans in general were excoriated by TPTB for digging themselves into a debt hole. The Chinese of all people were held up as Models of Thrifty Savers who we would end up as perpetual debt slaves to.
NOW the problem isn't that Americans are in deep debt, its that they won't (really CAN'T) go into DEEPER debt to keep the engine of capitalism running! This isn't a "paradox", its just stupid. Paradox gives it a cover of Keynsian Economic "science".
First off, Americans cannot go into further debt because nobody is going to lend money to unemployed people in an economy going South faster than Amundsenn made the South Pole. Second, its about as close to suicidal as you could get in this society to dig yourself an even BIGGER debt hole just to buy some Chinese Toys or a new car, when the old one is still working. Those of us here with ZERO debt pat ourselves on the back for our prescience, those who still have mortgages are looking for ways to pay it down fast as they can. WTF wants Phillipino Phone Banks calling you up every day dunning you for payment on your Credit Cards anyhow?
The Fed is shovelling money out to banks using a Daiwoo Front End Loader, but that money isn't finding its way out to Pigmen who NEED new loans to keep their Malls floating another week. Why? Because the Malls are not making a Profit! Why would the bank lend MORE money to a money losing bizness?
The reason nobody is loaning any money out is because none of the asset classes are makng a profit, there is just no place to put capital and get a return on it, so instead its being harbored to pay down debt. Hunkering down for survival on all levels, personal and corporate of course.
Unless and until some asset class is perceived as having profit potential, no money will be lent out. The most obvious attempt to create an asset calss would be either in Renewable Energy or in Energy Efficient Transport, and this likely will be the attempt made here to keep some money oving around the general economy. In real terms though, it can't make a profit because of the EROEI, which at best is break even in most cases, but more often negative. What you really need to do is mtigate the shrinkage, and that could only be done through careful planning, not through a market based economy. I pondered on this on my plane ride back from Hawaii, and I do think that it could be accomplished by letting the current system fail in its entirety. That unfortunately is not being allowed to happen because it takes the ownership out of the hands of the current Elite. However, they are losing that ownership anyhow, so its just a matter of time here before you get a similar result. Problem with the latter methodology is that the period of dislocation will be stretched out quite a bit.
I believe you could set up a monetary system designed for shrinkage by setting up boundary conditions for the currency and sticking to them. You define minima and maxima and adjust the currency value of goods related to survival to those minima and maxima. If you did this, you could virtually overnight make it possible to provide work for people and keep the subsistence level goods moving. It could be done.
I think this is going to happen down the line, but not before we dig ourselves deeper into the current hole. There will need to be greater dislocation (read that starvation in the first world) for the current system to be trashed in its entirety and the Banksters to be hung up by their Gonads. This might take another 5 years, but it will happen.
Meanwhile, we will have quite a bit of anarchic outplay of the current system. It will rain pigmen for a while longer before the system as a whole is trashed.The likelihood will be a decade long period of dislocation, another decade of mass death and then in the decade following that a controlled monetary system based on shrinkage. That would be best case scenario.
Reverse Engineer