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Welcome To The Depression!

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 16:42:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd yet the data does not support that thesis.

Economic downturns result in reduced birth rates in the developed world.

Drop in Births Reported, And Recession Is Blamed (1991)

Shaky economy means ‘bye-bye baby’ for some (2009)

Pregnancy and Birth Rate Declines in Weak Economy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')irth rates do tend to drop in times of economic uncertainty. There was a dramatic decline in fertility rates following the Great Depression in the 1930s, when, for the first time in U.S. history, women went from having an average of three children the previous decade to two.

In each year after the country’s last four recessions, general fertility rates — calculated as the number of women of child-bearing age per thousand who gave birth — dipped slightly. For example, in the year following the 1973-1975 recession, fertility rates dropped from 68.8 in 1973 to 65 in 1976, according to data from the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Similarly, following the 1980-1982 recession, the fertility rate fell from 68.4 in 1980 to 65.7 in 1983.


That's why my Mother is a depression kid from a family of 13.


Different times. Kids still had a use, could work in the field, rummage around for food etc. AND they were the "old age insurance".

In the modern world kids are a drain on the resources, not a benefit and as such people tend to cut back on "luxuries".

I have no problem seeing an initial decline in birth rates until it becomes more useful to have more bodies / hands to "help out".


Field? They lived in the big city. 'Old age insurance'? Hardly. Get over those myths.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby Revi » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 17:01:40

My parents were born in the Great Depression as well. I'm sure there were big families, but you have to remember that times didn't get really bad until 1932. I don't think anyone knew the depression was going to be 10 years long.

Birth rates drop in bad times, but that doesn't mean that there aren't mouths to feed that were born a few years earlier.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby FairMaiden » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 17:19:32

It funny, everytime there is discussion about the depression of the 30's ppl fail to mention that it was precipitated by the migration of jobs from human labour to machine and production efficiencies. Ford's assembly line put alot of ppl out of work. We have a similar situation now in that alot of jobs were shipped overseas...

Everyone keeps pointing out that the American economy is consumer driven (I'd argue 70% but agree with the basic fact). Who is say it HAS to stay that? Why could there not be gov't funded agro projects. Why do you have to ASSUME that NONE of the gov't driven projects this time around will help anything?

It just seems that all the conclusions and opinions on here are directed to all the possible negative outcomes. I'm not saying everything is peachy - FAR from it. But it doesn't have to be the end of the world as we know it either. (just the end of the y generation "me" greed world)
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby Pops » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 17:28:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FairMaiden', ' ')Why could there not be gov't funded agro projects.

First, big ag and big farmers have big pockets in which reside state and federal legislators.

Second, there are very few unemployed stock brokers and Realtors willing to make that change.

And finally, we ain't hungry.

But it ain't over either.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby Snowrunner » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 17:39:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'F')ield? They lived in the big city. 'Old age insurance'? Hardly. Get over those myths.


"Big Cities" were a lot smaller than today too. And yeah, if you look for example at the pictures that Illargi is posting kids were put to work much earlier.

As for old age insurance, that is "true" too. Parents tended to stay in the house when their kids took it over and lived with them, and weren't just putted off into an old peoples home in Florida.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby Snowrunner » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 17:42:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FairMaiden', 'I')t just seems that all the conclusions and opinions on here are directed to all the possible negative outcomes. I'm not saying everything is peachy - FAR from it. But it doesn't have to be the end of the world as we know it either. (just the end of the y generation "me" greed world)


Because human nature is such that things don't change until they HAVE to and by then it's "game over".

You do not make these things happen overnight, they take time to be implemented not to mention to spin up, think at least three years from the time you start until it starts finding any traction, probably 10 until the entire migration has completed.

How do you think the world will look three years from now? Ten?
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby Revi » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 17:53:08

If we suddenly got serious and actually put up solar panels on every roof, insulated every crappy apartment building and got an electric transportation system going we might have a chance.

I think we are going to end up with a lot of stuff we can't use all around us. Cars we can't afford to drive, houses we can't afford to heat and people we can't afford to feed.

It would be nice if people could prepare for things, but I think most of us lack the ability.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby AgentR » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 20:37:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'T')hat would have been an option if Bush the Younger wouldn't have depleted the US Military.

I must have been one of the few back in 2003 was thankful for this folly, I realized that this would take a long time, lots of resources and severely limit the options when TSHTF.


I wasn't really talking about this modern arcade game; more like 30 million draftie infantry with medium grade rifles and a backpack. I don't think the arcade game version gives you quite the dispersion of currency into the economy along with its outflow of consumables used by those infantry in battle.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 28 Jan 2009, 22:31:36

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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby StormBringer » Thu 29 Jan 2009, 00:13:59

Seems to me we are arguing over a name for what is by any definition a really bad near future. I don't know why so much emphasis is being place on what to call it or what difference it will make. The only question is how long will this go on?

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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby Snowrunner » Thu 29 Jan 2009, 00:24:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'T')hat would have been an option if Bush the Younger wouldn't have depleted the US Military.

I must have been one of the few back in 2003 was thankful for this folly, I realized that this would take a long time, lots of resources and severely limit the options when TSHTF.


I wasn't really talking about this modern arcade game; more like 30 million draftie infantry with medium grade rifles and a backpack. I don't think the arcade game version gives you quite the dispersion of currency into the economy along with its outflow of consumables used by those infantry in battle.


Do you think the modern US Army / Aiforce / Navy could do it without their toys?
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Thu 29 Jan 2009, 00:36:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'A')nd yet the data does not support that thesis.

Economic downturns result in reduced birth rates in the developed world.

Drop in Births Reported, And Recession Is Blamed (1991)

Shaky economy means ‘bye-bye baby’ for some (2009)

Pregnancy and Birth Rate Declines in Weak Economy

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')irth rates do tend to drop in times of economic uncertainty. There was a dramatic decline in fertility rates following the Great Depression in the 1930s, when, for the first time in U.S. history, women went from having an average of three children the previous decade to two.

In each year after the country’s last four recessions, general fertility rates — calculated as the number of women of child-bearing age per thousand who gave birth — dipped slightly. For example, in the year following the 1973-1975 recession, fertility rates dropped from 68.8 in 1973 to 65 in 1976, according to data from the National Center for Health Statistics, part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Similarly, following the 1980-1982 recession, the fertility rate fell from 68.4 in 1980 to 65.7 in 1983.


That's why my Mother is a depression kid from a family of 13.


And your personal experience was the exception, not the rule.

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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby IgnoranceIsBliss » Thu 29 Jan 2009, 18:28:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd Beth Golden, a Scituate, Mass., mother of two, still plans to have a third child, despite her relatives admonishing her about the cost of college tuition. “I just feel that bringing a child into the world is much more important to me than thinking about financial responsibilities 18 years from now,” she says. “The joy a child brings to my life cannot amount to the value of anything else.”

Even if families intend to hold off, as the saying goes, the best laid plans often go astray.
Morgan points out that nearly 50 percent of pregnancies in the U.S. are “unintended.” “I would expect some fertility downturn, but the spigot will not be turned off,” he says. “People will continue to smoke, drink — and have sex.”


This is from the above linked article (the one from 2009). I think the woman who is having her 3rd child is being kind of selfish. She needs to get a hobby.

Anyway, I'm interested to see if there is a decline in the birth rate as most seem to think (except me). My town is 33% Mexican and most of these families have very young chilldren and infants. In fact, at one local school, they just had a huge increase in the number of English for Speakers of Other Languages (ESOL) students, all in grades Kindergarten and 1st. I don't see this changing any time soon, but I could be wrong.

I personally have 2 friends who are pregnant right now. (ages 37 and 36) One is having her 1st child (and plans to have a 2nd as soon as possible) and the other is having her 3rd. I also just found out that a former co-worker of mine just had her 3rd child. (#2 was an accident and so was #3) This is a woman with a graduate degree. My friend who is 37 and having her first child any day now (with plans to get pregnant again asap) is in the following situation: (1) owns 2 homes (bought a big new one before the small one sold, and it never did) The big new house just went into foreclosure and they moved into the smaller house (still paid way too much for it in 2006). (2) Just bought a new Honda CRV because "they were offering good deals" (3) works for a timeshare company which just layed off 80% of the workforce. My friend is one of the only people left there! (and this was before they bought the car) Insane... I am 100% sure they have no stored food, formula, etc. I forgot to add that this friend also has her masters degree!
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby Jester » Thu 29 Jan 2009, 23:12:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'T')he best definition is that a Recession is when someone you know loses their job, while a Depression is when you lose your job.


Indeed.

I officially enter Depression after work tomorrow... my final day.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 30 Jan 2009, 03:53:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jester', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'T')he best definition is that a Recession is when someone you know loses their job, while a Depression is when you lose your job.


Indeed.

I officially enter Depression after work tomorrow... my final day.


Sorry to hear that Jester! But I would say, Join the club.
My wife and I are both laid off. Not having much luck finding a job either. Lots advertised, when application and resume sent, no response. Good luck to you.

I have left my regular job ~6 years ago and I only got richer (and healthier...) as a result.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby IgnoranceIsBliss » Fri 30 Jan 2009, 11:06:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cbxer55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jester', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'T')he best definition is that a Recession is when someone you know loses their job, while a Depression is when you lose your job.


Indeed.

I officially enter Depression after work tomorrow... my final day.


Sorry to hear that Jester! But I would say, Join the club.
My wife and I are both laid off. Not having much luck finding a job either. Lots advertised, when application and resume sent, no response. Good luck to you.


Now is definately when it really pays to be one of those super social type people with lots of connections. You work all of your contacts and try to find any job leads that you can. Otherwise, you are just faxing resumes into a pile of hundreds of others. I used to work in human resources and our recruiters were overwhelmed with faxes and e-mails back in 2003. Do you have any temp labor places in your area? Maybe that could be a start if you think it's worth the hassle. You can also claim unemployment if you are successfully registered at a temp agency and they don't place you on assignments. (I used to be a recruiter at one of these places too)

Good luck to you both. I'm sure more of us here on PO will find ourselves in your situation soon. (I remember when it was a terrible stigma to be unemployed (and I was for several months to even a year, twice)!
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby manu » Thu 12 Feb 2009, 10:36:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', 'T')he lemmings are now being shoved over the cliff by the other lemmings.


It's amazing how that Disney film populated the understanding of this arctic rodent in our minds.

Turns out it was all BS & the crew captured Lemmings and literally shoved them off the cliff.

link

Hmmm... maybe they are an apt analogy for this financial collapse?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Lemming (Wikipedia)

... skip ...

The behavior of lemmings is much the same as that of many other rodents which have periodic population booms and then disperse in all directions, seeking the food and shelter that their natural habitat cannot provide.

... skip ...

Lemmings can and do swim and may choose to cross a body of water in search of a new habitat.[7] On occasion, and particularly in the case of the Norway lemmings in Scandinavia, large migrating groups will reach a cliff overlooking the ocean. They will stop until the urge to press on causes them to jump off the cliff and start swimming, sometimes to exhaustion and death. Lemmings are also often pushed into the sea as more and more lemmings arrive at the shore.[8]

... snip ...



Thanks Bratticus
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby manu » Thu 12 Feb 2009, 10:42:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FairMaiden', 'I')t funny, everytime there is discussion about the depression of the 30's ppl fail to mention that it was precipitated by the migration of jobs from human labour to machine and production efficiencies. Ford's assembly line put alot of ppl out of work. We have a similar situation now in that alot of jobs were shipped overseas...

Everyone keeps pointing out that the American economy is consumer driven (I'd argue 70% but agree with the basic fact). Who is say it HAS to stay that? Why could there not be gov't funded agro projects. Why do you have to ASSUME that NONE of the gov't driven projects this time around will help anything?

It just seems that all the conclusions and opinions on here are directed to all the possible negative outcomes. I'm not saying everything is peachy - FAR from it. But it doesn't have to be the end of the world as we know it either. (just the end of the y generation "me" greed world)


Yes, close the factories down. Get people who want to start small farms back on the land again. Close Monsanto. Put the people who work for that demoniac company in jail for life. Hang the top CEO's.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby lowem » Thu 12 Feb 2009, 12:10:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', 'H')ang the top CEO's.


It seems that a lot of people are angry enough to think about doing something like that. Or that's what I gather anyway. An economic crisis is a heck of a breeding ground for discontent. And this is a heck of an economic crisis.
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Re: Welcome To The Depression!

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Thu 12 Feb 2009, 12:24:13

One would think the least tht should happen in payback terms is exactly that. Every 2 faced slimebag involved in peddling sub prime mortgages to people obviously unable to repay; in my opinion at least, should be asset stripped pronto& permanently.
They callously manipulated and left millions struggling in their wake; why should they now have any economic freedom?
Screw locking them up or hanging them; they have already cost far in excess of their worth.
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