[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', 'T')he lemmings are now being shoved over the cliff by the other lemmings.

[miskatonic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IgnoranceIsBliss', '
')20% would be unrest in the streets and pretty much TSHTF. Beggars everywhere and crime such that it is unsafe to go to the stores or drive around.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miskatonic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IgnoranceIsBliss', '
')20% would be unrest in the streets and pretty much TSHTF. Beggars everywhere and crime such that it is unsafe to go to the stores or drive around.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('manu', 'T')he lemmings are now being shoved over the cliff by the other lemmings.

[high5]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'B')y Summer it should be evident we are in a full blown depression. Give it 2 more quarters of horrific news and the sheep will realize.

[RdSnt]

The whole notion that we can compare the current state of affairs with any other time in history, particularly the "great depression" is ludicrous.

Let's consider the 30's depression and the state of the world. The US industrial complex was big but still quite primitive compared to Europe, where the majority of technological innovation was still occurring.
The majority of the US population was still rural, and the political orientation was decidedly isolationist. The US contribution to WW1 was minimal (only 18 months worth) and a noticably unpleasant experience which they didn't want to repeat.
The world was still on the gold standard, and the US had lots of money, enormous potential capacity and a burgeoning will to exploit it.
The stock market was small and the domain of the elite, banks were still simply banks and manufacturing corporations did not have financial subsidiaries.

Now, the US industrial base is at the end of its life and has been stripped of its value. Manufacturing jobs are mostly point and click with little in the way of skills, glorified burger flippers mostly.
Rural is a place for distant suburbs with food growth dominated by corporations and giant, machine dependent, farms.
The US is bankrupt, its banks (complex processors of ponzi schemes) are equally underwater. The consumer, who is the driving force of gdp, is busted and rapidly loosing their virtual jobs.
Government is dominated by self-indulgent cowards focused on their next, lobbyest paid, meal and haven't the least interest in either their country or the future.
The will to succeed and advance has been sapped by greed, laziness and cynical denial of action.
The global economy is completely dependent on the US dollar, since everyone bought into the notion that it was equivalent to gold.

What is coming, particularly within the US, is without precedent and will be much harsher and more dangerous than anything before.
We are at the Malthus limit (but certainly not as he originally envisioned it ) and many people will perish.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'W')ell, just as a hypothetical, if you Nationalized all industries, created an entirely new currency from scratch and created a Make Work project to employ all your Unemployed workers this would resolve your unemployment problem in an instant.

The real bear of course is running this show, state directed economies aren't known for their efficiency of course. However, inefficiency would be better than mass anarchy.

Reverse Engineer

[coyote]

Relevant:

Recession or depression? Too early to tell
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s bad as things are today, conditions are nowhere near as bad as they were during the Great Depression. At least not yet.

The differences are stark. From 1929 and 1933, inflation-adjusted gross domestic product plunged 27 percent, some 10 times worse than any recession since. Today, even the worst forecasts don’t expect GDP to shrink by more than a few percent this year before recovering in 2010.

Unemployment in the 1930s peaked at 25 percent in 1933; most forecasters don't expect unemployment this time around to rise much above 10 percent, compared with the current 7.2 percent.

Other comparisons don’t measure up either. Since the current crisis began unfolding, the number of banks that have failed or been forced to find merger partners can be measured in the dozens; in the 1930s, roughly a third of all banks failed. Even last year's sickening 38 percent drop in stock prices was fairly tame compared to the 90 percent drop during the Great Depression.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t least in the 30's we not only had the ability to fire up our industry but ample domestic fuel to run it!

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IgnoranceIsBliss', 'H')ow in the heck to you dig out of a 20% unemployed hole? You don't.

[patience]

Because of the proposed US record deficit for '09, and the current National Debt level, I think the crucial thing to watch now is the bond market. Challenge #1 for next year is going to be financing that deficit. If demand for US Treasury debt drops more, as some are forecasting, the result can only be, 1) Interest rates (bond yields) increase, which will drive all interest rates up and kill commercial lending, or 2) If there aren't enough buyers for T's, and the govt won't rein in spending, then the only choice is for the Fed to buy the T's. The Fed then pays for the T"S with fiat. End game.

The end point is bad, or worse. Watch the BONDS. Germany and others already have had bond auction failures, meaning no buyers at the offered interest rate. Govts don't set interest rates, and never did. The market sets interest tates by what it is willing to buy.

I have just about given up watching the DOW, since I have come to believe that it is highly manipulated, and thus not as good an indicator. I watch new unemployment claims, and bond rates now, and both are getting pretty scary.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t least in the 30's we not only had the ability to fire up our industry but ample domestic fuel to run it!

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o are you trying to say we _didn't_ have ample domestic fuel production to run the social programs?

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o are you trying to say we _didn't_ have ample domestic fuel production to run the social programs?

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o are you trying to say we _didn't_ have ample domestic fuel production to run the social programs?

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '
')
No:

welfare
food stamps
energy assistance
and so on in the 30's

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'T')he whole notion that we can compare the current state of affairs with any other time in history, particularly the "great depression" is ludicrous.

Let's consider the 30's depression and the state of the world. The US industrial complex was big but still quite primitive compared to Europe, where the majority of technological innovation was still occurring.
The majority of the US population was still rural, and the political orientation was decidedly isolationist. The US contribution to WW1 was minimal (only 18 months worth) and a noticably unpleasant experience which they didn't want to repeat.
The world was still on the gold standard, and the US had lots of money, enormous potential capacity and a burgeoning will to exploit it.
The stock market was small and the domain of the elite, banks were still simply banks and manufacturing corporations did not have financial subsidiaries.

Now, the US industrial base is at the end of its life and has been stripped of its value. Manufacturing jobs are mostly point and click with little in the way of skills, glorified burger flippers mostly.
Rural is a place for distant suburbs with food growth dominated by corporations and giant, machine dependent, farms.
The US is bankrupt, its banks (complex processors of ponzi schemes) are equally underwater. The consumer, who is the driving force of gdp, is busted and rapidly loosing their virtual jobs.
Government is dominated by self-indulgent cowards focused on their next, lobbyest paid, meal and haven't the least interest in either their country or the future.
The will to succeed and advance has been sapped by greed, laziness and cynical denial of action.
The global economy is completely dependent on the US dollar, since everyone bought into the notion that it was equivalent to gold.

What is coming, particularly within the US, is without precedent and will be much harsher and more dangerous than anything before.
We are at the Malthus limit (but certainly not as he originally envisioned it ) and many people will perish.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o are you trying to say we _didn't_ have ample domestic fuel production to run the social programs?

[Tyler_JC]

(Just to play the Devil's Advocate here)

Wasn't one of the big problems with Peak Oil the weakness of the electric grid to accommodate the new electric transportation infrastructure? And isn't part of Obama's big stimulus push an attempt to "build a smart electric grid"

Consumers will cut back on spending (aka, resource consumption), couples will have fewer children (overpopulation solution) and government will invest in the kind of infrastructure we need to survive in a post oil world. Less economic activity means less pollution and fewer greenhouse gas emissions, giving us more breathing room to deal with climate change while we develop new technologies to produce cleaner energy.

There will be human suffering, no doubt about it. But the nation and the world as a whole will be better for it. We can build a more sustainable future that isn't dependent on financial bubbles but instead on the real economy like energy production.

So, if anything, this Depression might actually be exactly what we need.

Depression? Bring it on.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 1929 large areas or rural America had not yet been electrified.