[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobbyald', 'I') did a quick survey in my office (in the UK where we currently pay about $7.50 per gallon) and no one said they would give up their car at $34 gallon. They would reduce usage, be more selective in their journeys and car share but would NOT lose their car - interesting don't you think?

[bobbyald]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')ow, are they rich?

[No-Oil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala', 'N')o Oil

You may be right, but nowhere in the linked article is the word "light" or
"heavy" is used.

At the end of the article, there are these two sentences:

"The IMF warning came as the US Department of Energy on Thursday raised its oil price forecast in 2005 and 2006 to about $55 a barrel, up more than $6 from last month.

US crude futures were flat in late afternoon trade on Thursday at $55 a barrel."

The above sentences clearly do not refer to heavy crude, if the author wants to use the words "crude" and "oil" to refer to first both and then to
only one, he is obliged to alert readers he has changed the meanings
unless it's a deliberate attempt to mislead them.

[Aaron]

Nope

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('No-Oil', 'W')hooooa there cowboys. The IMF is talking about average Crude prices, not "light sweet" crude that you see mentioned all the time at over $55 a barrel.
Some heavy crude is shipping today for less than $12 barrel & the main bulk of crude pumped in the world is of medium to heavy weight & trades for much less than the desirable "light sweet" crude that is preferred in the west for petrol production & because it is what our refineries are designed to process.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he IMF goes on to point out that non-Opec production is set to fall over the next 25 years, peaking in 2010.

[nth]

IMF:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')EA (2004b)
expects non-OPEC oil production to rise from 50 mbd in 2004 to 57 mbd in 2010 (including nonconventional oil and processing gains), and stay broadly constant thereafter as falling production of conventional oil is offset by rising nonconventional oil production in Canada

[nth]

Thanks Mark!

Anyone who doesn't believe in PO can now officially see IEA concluding that PO for non-Opec in 2010. IMF trusts IEA figures.

[MicroHydro]

I still see a Pollyanna attitude. The report believes that with adequate investment, OPEC can increase production to compensate for non-OPEC decline. They also believe that Canadian tar sand production can make up for shortfalls in conventional oil. The larger issue of overall global oil and gas production peaking has not been addressed.

[nth]

I believe they are addressing it by stealth. They don't want to panick the public. They obviously don't believe in the scenarios picture by ASPO. They seem to think there will be a slow decline.

There are reports of drastic actions to be taken to seriously reduce oil demands- changes in lifestyle and economy to cope with oil crisis.

I think these reports in themselves are very daring and says how much they believe that PO is for real.
They are taking the economic approach in questioning the world's ability to invest in trillions of dollars to maintain adequate oil supplies. I believed IEA has published estimates of $3trillion USD to develop oil and gas to meet demands by 2035.

If these numbers don't trigger changes to our oil and gas consumption, then people are just being stupid.
It doesn't matter if PO is real or not, we won't be able to produce enough to satisfy unrestrained growth.
You really think we can afford to spend $3+trillion to develop oil and gas? This is not the total cost. This is to develop the infrastructure to explore and extract the oil and gas. Taxes and profits are not factored in.

[something_awfull]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')OUNTRIES such as Australia that rely on oil imports must not cave in to public demands for petrol price relief, the International Monetary Fund warns.

Consumers must be fully exposed to rocketing prices and learn to change their consumption habits, the IMF says in a report released today.

The price of a litre of unleaded petrol rose from $1.16 to $1.30 in one day last week.

The IMF says that if consumers in net oil-importing countries felt the full force of market price signals on oil, it could prevent countries such as Australia from falling further into debt.

"For consuming countries, this requires full pass-through of world oil prices into domestic energy prices," the IMF's World Economic Outlook says.

Economists agree, saying higher prices would force consumers to use less petrol.

"People ought to be seeking to become more economical in their use of oil," ANZ's chief economist, Saul Eslake, said. "None of that will happen if governments seek to suppress price signals."

The Treasurer, Peter Costello, said this week the world had entered its "third oil shock", but the IMF report finds that shortages and high prices have, to date, been less severe than the previous two.

Nonetheless the IMF warns that oil prices will not fall soon. The world price of crude oil stayed at near-record levels this week, fetching $US68.50 ($93.50) a barrel on Friday. Higher oil prices are affecting the global economy, the IMF finds, because oil-exporting countries are hoarding more of their revenue from oil than in previous oil shortages. This stockpiling of petrodollars raises the risk of a "sudden, disorderly adjustment" in world markets, the IMF warns.

Mr Eslake said a fundamental shift in power could happen as global savings moved from generally compliant Asian nations towards oil exporters with a traditionally more hostile relationship with the world's biggest debtor, the United States.

These countries would be less inclined to buy American exports and fund its burgeoning current account deficit, he said.

"They have no particular vested interest in keeping the US economy afloat," Mr Eslake said.

The IMF says Saudi Arabia is still the biggest holder of world oil reserves (at 22.1 per cent), followed by Iran (11.1 per cent), Iraq (9.7 per cent) and Kuwait (8.3 per cent).

Meanwhile, the president of the NRMA, Alan Evans, said it was dishonest for petrol suppliers to blame the rising price of crude oil for sudden price rises at the bowser because a $1 rise in the price of crude oil equated to 1 cent per litre rise in the price of petrol.

Based on the price of a barrel of crude oil, petrol should have risen only by 3 cents a litre at the pump, he said.

There were also marked anomalies between the cost of petrol in the city and in the bush, Mr Evans said.

SMH

[something_awfull]

In relation to that IMF report, what the heck is a "net foreign asset positions" ?

[seahorse]

Nice article Somethingawful,

There are a couple of concerning statements made by the IMF, one is, that higher prices are hear to stay - I hope Lynch is listening.

The other is the intimation there could be a dollar collapse or something to that effect.

"the IMF finds, because oil-exporting countries are hoarding more of their revenue from oil than in previous oil shortages. This stockpiling of petrodollars raises the risk of a "sudden, disorderly adjustment" in world markets, the IMF warns."

[ubercynicmeister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('something_awfull', 'I')n relation to that IMF report, what the heck is a "net foreign asset positions" ?

[americandream]

This is choice bullcrap....first the buggers wreck our public infrastructure with raegonomiks and then they have the cheek to tell us to take a hike. Come the Revolution............

[ohanian]

The price of petrol is too cheap in Australia.
It needs to rise up to $2 per litre.
That is the right price for the damage
it will cause to the environment.

[something_awfull]

I saw on the news that it will hit $1.60/L next week, if it's prolonged it should have some interesting inflationary effects, which will put pressure on the reserve bank to raise interest rates.

[something_awfull]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ohanian', '[')size=200]The price of petrol is too cheap in Australia.
It needs to rise up to $2 per litre.
That is the right price for the damage
it will cause to the environment.
[/size]

[ubercynicmeister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('americandream', 'T')his is choice bullcrap....first the buggers wreck our public infrastructure with raegonomiks and then they have the cheek to tell us to take a hike. Come the Revolution............

[rogerhb]

Bankers Fear World Economic Meltdown

Apparently the poor countries are not playing the game and are actually paying off their loans.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gabriel Kolko', 'D')e Rato’s fears reflect the fact that the IMF has been undergoing both structural and intellectual crises. Structurally, its outstanding credit and loans have declined dramatically since 2003, from over $70 billion to a little over $20 billion today, doubling its available resources and leaving it with far less leverage over the economic policies of developing nations

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '[')url=http://www.counterpunch.org/kolko07262006.html]Bankers Fear World Economic Meltdown[/url]

Apparently the poor countries are not playing the game and are actually paying off their loans.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gabriel Kolko', 'D')e Rato’s fears reflect the fact that the IMF has been undergoing both structural and intellectual crises. Structurally, its outstanding credit and loans have declined dramatically since 2003, from over $70 billion to a little over $20 billion today, doubling its available resources and leaving it with far less leverage over the economic policies of developing nations