[dohboi]

"Things down keep getting worse and worse economically like you all tend to believe."

I doubt it will be linear, so I think you're right in that. I think it will get quite a bit worse, but then there will be some kind of tepid recovery, then things will get even worse, then a bit more recovery....

In each case, the slight recovery will convince a lot of people that our troubles are over and happy days are here again forever.

I'm not sure which part of permanent resource depletion and runaway global warming you are missing. Do think things on the downslope of these trends will look like economic and other patterns of the last 70 years, years when on average the world could reliably look forward to more and more oil availability,on average, every decade?

Or were you just trying to make my point above, that the future won't be consistently linear in any direction, but will have a lot of bumps in both directions?

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Severe retail downturn forecast for 2009

James Temple, Chronicle Staff Writer
SFGate / San Francisco Chronical
Sunday, January 4, 2009

... skip ...

Retail casualties

Stores that will close in 2009: 200,000*

Malls that will close in 2009: 2,000 to 3,000*

Retail vacancy rate by third quarter: 12.7 percent, up from 9.8 percent a year earlier**

Rent decline by third quarter: 7.3%**

Debt coming due for publicly traded mall owners in 2009 and 2010: $23 billion***

Stores that will open in 2009: 105,000 to 110,000, down from around 125,000 in recent years****

Sources: *Strategic Resource Group, **National Association of Realtors, ***Green Street Advisors Inc., ****International Council of Shopping Centers

... snip ...

[bratticus]

[flash width=425 height=344]http://www.youtube.com/v/Hrokoy9PxyE[/flash]

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]For Commercial Real Estate: Let's Make a Deal

Stephen Taub - CFO.com | US
January 6, 2009

... skip ...

In a new study, commercial real estate services and investment firm Grubb & Ellis predicts that the office vacancy rate will rise by 2 percentage points, to 16.5 percent at the end of 2009.

... snip ...

[Armageddon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]For Commercial Real Estate: Let's Make a Deal
Stephen Taub - CFO.com | US January 6, 2009
... skip ... In a new study, commercial real estate services and investment firm Grubb & Ellis predicts that the office vacancy rate will rise by 2 percentage points, to 16.5 percent at the end of 2009. ... snip ...

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b][url=http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-foreclosure-filings-2008-rose/story.aspx?guid={1B0E993C-88D5-44B6-8C50-C02410082B5E}&dist=msr_10]U.S. foreclosure filings in 2008 rose 81% from 2007[/url]

... A total of nearly 3.16 million foreclosure filings -- measured by default notices, auction-sale notices, and bank repossessions -- were reported in 2008.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Hotel center auctioned, foreclosed, now for sale again

Cabinet.com
Published: Thursday, Jan. 15, 2009

MERRIMACK – Inside the old hotel, many friends were reunited. Couples exchanged wedding vows, chefs clinked knives in culinary competitions, and retirees celebrated their newfound freedom.
The hotel also hosted then-presidential candidate Bill Clinton in 1992, when he logged an unexpected, second-place finish in the primary. During his famed speech before 700 supporters, he anointed himself the “Comeback Kid.”

... skip ...

Peter Annon, a real estate agent from the Portsmouth-based broker Wason Associates, said New Stream Capital, LLC, has bought the building and land, at 4 Executive Drive, just off the F.E. Everett Turnpike at Exit 11.

Annon said he recognizes the challenges in the current economy, and said it’s probable the industry will have more commercial foreclosures before things get better.

“The problem is banks were financing things at sometimes 95 percent, and with the downturn of the economy, people can’t make their loan payments.”

... snip ...

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Schnurman: Is commercial real estate next in line to fall?

By MITCHELL SCHNURMAN
star-telegram.com
Thursday, Jan 15, 2009

Is commercial real estate next?

First came the housing bust. Then financial services, commodities and the job market went south. Now it’s commercial real estate in trouble — overbuilt, overleveraged and on the verge of a shakeout.

... skip ...

Other than apartments, experts are forecasting almost no new commercial construction starts this year. Companies are cutting workers, not adding them. Retailers are closing stores and demanding concessions. And lenders and investors are leery of new projects, insisting on higher equity stakes on all of them.

... skip ...

"It’s a sinking ship for a bunch of metros," Calanog says, "and even the strongest cities won’t be spared."

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]’08 Foreclosures Set Stage for Rough ’09

ANDY MEEK | The Daily News
January 15, 2009

... skip ...

The number of commercial foreclosures [in Shelby County] was up about 50 percent in ’08 compared to ’07, going from 96 (2007) to 145 (2008).

... snip ...

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Some big names join list of tax delinquents

By Lee Davidson

Deseret News
Published: Monday, Jan. 12, 2009

Frontier Airlines and Sprint Nextel just obtained what are essentially big, low-interest "loans" from Utah taxpayers — even though Frontier is in bankruptcy and Sprint Nextel saw its debt downgraded last month to "junk" status.

Still, they did not need to fill out any loan applications before automatic approval. They need not make any payments for five years. Their interest rate is 6.2 percent, not bad for shaky companies in tough times. Frontier's "loan" is for about $312,000, and Sprint Nextel's is for $860,000. It was all much simpler than seeking a congressional bailout.

How did that happen? They simply did not pay their 2008 property taxes on time.

... skip ...

Somewhat similarly, banks and mortgage companies often delay property tax payment on foreclosed properties — and accounted for about 2 percent of all delinquent taxes in the three counties. And commercial property companies, such as owners of shopping centers or apartments, accounted for about 3 percent of delinquencies. Other businesses — including many known to be in financial distress — accounted for 16 percent of all delinquencies. Homeowners accounted for the other 50 percent of unpaid tax.

... snip ...

[lawnchair]

Eventually the past-due tax bill gets high enough that no one wants to pay it off, so the property reverts to the county/crown. What they do with it remains to be seen. Bulldozers, possibly, so they don't undercut still-surviving (and taxable) commercial.

[vtsnowedin]

I have to wonder. If instead of dumping 350 billion into the private jet accounts of the banksters we had instead just paid the payments on those 3.1 million distressed propertys for a year. If you take a guess of $1000/ month payment times 12 months that comes out to just 37 billion and you would have 313 billion left for the next ten years or so. If you only paid the amount the loan holders were short you could go a lot longer. Stupid idea I agree but what we did do with it was a lot stupider.

[Jotapay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '2')012 = Mayan Calendar STOPS!
What we will witness = Major events happening at an ever increasing rate until the end of 2012.

[Daphne64]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '8')) I have to wonder. If instead of dumping 350 billion into the private jet accounts of the banksters we had instead just paid the payments on those 3.1 million distressed propertys for a year. If you take a guess of $1000/ month payment times 12 months that comes out to just 37 billion and you would have 313 billion left for the next ten years or so. If you only paid the amount the loan holders were short you could go a lot longer. Stupid idea I agree but what we did do with it was a lot stupider.

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'A')s a lawyer, in my personal experience in my local area, banks are reluctant to sell foreclosed homes and are in fact, holding onto them and continuing to "book" them with inflated values. Here's a post I made on the subject:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the ongoing residential bust, I always wondered why banks weren't simply willing to pull the trigger and get rid of the foreclosed homes for whatever they could get. Well, its not that simple, bc in the end, they don't have enough capital to allow them to get rid of them. They have to hold the houses and claim a false value on the defaulted properties hoping they can sell them later at the price they have in the properties - Enron banking style.

Why must they show them on their books with false inflated values? Keep in mind the assets and liabilities of a bank. Deposits are liabilities that in addition they have to pay interest on. Loans are considered assets, as long as they are good. Basically, the assets and liabilities of a bank must maintain a certain proportion, otherwise, they are bankrupt. So, when a bank forecloses, they take the house back, replacing the asset value of the good loan with the asset value of the home they are holding - if they take a loss on the home or mark it down to its true deflated value, it reduces their assets.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Takeover at Latham Circle Mall

... Latham Circle Mall has been taken over by its lender, which foreclosed on the struggling property because of $25 million in debt.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Hancock Tower could go to Chicago investor

... The ownership is up for grabs after Broadway Real Estate Partners LLC defaulted on a $700 million mezzanine loan earlier this month. New York-based Broadway Partners bought the Hancock Tower and other assets as part of a $3.3 billion portfolio acquisition from Beacon Capital Partners LLC.

[lawnchair]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Banks Foreclose on Builders With Perfect Records

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Banks Foreclose on Builders With Perfect Records

[basil_hayden]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lawnchair', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b] Banks Foreclose on Builders With Perfect Records