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Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby RdSnt » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 18:56:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '
')
Even today, some organizations in Hawaii offer a system where you do a certain amount of work, then you can go home. No matter what time it is.


It's called "piece" work. Nothing radical about that, most trades people work this way and have for millenium.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby Leanan » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 19:59:50

"Piece work" generally means you get paid per piece. So there is incentive to work extra. Finish more pieces, you get more money. That's not way the "ukapau" system in Hawaii worked.

It's true that in foraging societies, people generally work less than four hours a day. People living foraging lifestyles now are living on very marginal lands - the desert, the Arctic. So it's likely that most humans actually worked even less in our hunter-gatherer days, since they were living on better land.

What changed? Agriculture. Particularly, the growing of grains that could be stored. That allowed people to accumulate wealth.

Before grain, that wasn't possible. Most foods (meat, vegetables, fruit) cannot be easily stored for long periods. Once you had enough to feed your family, there was no reason to grow or gather more.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 20:06:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')The problem left unresolved in the promotion here of a society where people do not really need to work so much is just how you distribute out the food and shelter to the people?

We can no doubt keep producing food for quite some time, we certainly have plenty of shelters built. How, in the absence of jobs and functioning money do we equitably distribute out the food and the shelter?

Reverse Engineer


Daniel Quinn has some ideas of how to transition to a non-hierarchical society in which the food isn't locked up, in his book "Beyond Civilization," which I recommend to anyone who is interested in ideas about "what's next."
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby seldom_seen » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 20:11:50

You must read this article from Orion magazine if you haven't done so already.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Gospel of Consumption

Industrialists feared that the frugal habits maintained by most American families would be difficult to break. Perhaps even more threatening was the fact that the industrial capacity for turning out goods seemed to be increasing at a pace greater than people’s sense that they needed them.

It was this latter concern that led Charles Kettering, director of General Motors Research, to write a 1929 magazine article called “Keep the Consumer Dissatisfied.”

http://www.orionmagazine.org/index.php/ ... ticle/2962

We Americans have consumed ourselves right off a cliff in a manufactured feeding frenzy.

Imagine if instead of burning up, cutting down and strip mining everything in less than a century...we instead worked less, wanted less and consumed less? The US could have lasted several thousand years instead of a few hundred.

What is remarkable to me about the American empire is not how big it is, but what a short lifespan it will have and what a mess it will leave of sick and diseased people and sick and diseased landscapes.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby Byron100 » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 20:59:09

Excellent article - thank you so much for posting that. Sums up very nicely my long-held beliefs about work. Kudos to Kellogg for having the six-hour day - imagine if that was the universal standard as opposed to the 8-hour day, which is often much longer than that, even.

Damn those nasty Puritans and the moronic "work ethic" they stuck us with...I just wish those azzholes had settled in Brazil or someplace like that...LOL. I've always hated them with exuberant passion, even as a little kid. :o

I've come to believe that us humans were never meant to be slaves to the land or the factory, rather, we're a thinking species, destined to live content, joyful lives full of creativity, leisure and fellowship with friends and family - and working just hard enough to provide for our basic needs and a few cherished luxuries, in total harmony with our environment.

Any other mode of living is a fool's errand - as we're about to collectively find out in a very big way, very soon.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby RdSnt » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 23:18:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '
').Imagine if instead of burning up, cutting down and strip mining everything in less than a century...we instead worked less, wanted less and consumed less? The US could have lasted several thousand years instead of a few hundred.


Sure, all 382.4 of you.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Wed 14 Jan 2009, 23:27:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '
')I've come to believe that us humans were never meant to be slaves to the land or the factory, rather, we're a thinking species, destined to live content, joyful lives full of creativity, leisure and fellowship with friends and family - and working just hard enough to provide for our basic needs and a few cherished luxuries, in total harmony with our environment.

Any other mode of living is a fool's errand - as we're about to collectively find out in a very big way, very soon.


That's beautiful! 8)
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby jdmartin » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 00:00:29

Great article! Thanks for the link. I had no idea Kellogg was so progressive back in 1930. That would be a great movement today. Some of the European cultures seem to lean that way - I know a lot of my Italian relatives would be considered "lazy" in the US, especially without any real commitment to time, 2 hour lunch breaks, etc.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby TWilliam » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 01:01:09

Well, looks like a good time to dust off this classic piece...

The Abolition of Work

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]No one should ever work.

Work is the source of nearly all the misery in the world. Almost all the evil you'd care to name comes from working or from living in a world designed for work. In order to stop suffering, we have to stop working.

That doesn't mean we have to stop doing things. It does mean creating a new way of life based on play; in other words, a ludic revolution. By "play" I mean also festivity, creativity, conviviality, commensality, and maybe even art. There is more to play than child's play, as worthy as that is. I call for a collective adventure in generalized joy and freely interdependent exuberance. Play isn't passive. Doubtless we all need a lot more time for sheer sloth and slack than we ever enjoy now, regardless of income or occupation, but once recovered from employment-induced exhaustion nearly all of us [will] want [to] act. Oblomovism and Stakhanovism are two sides of same debased coin.

The ludic life is totally incompatible with existing reality. So much the worse for "reality," the gravity hole that sucks the vitality from the little in life that still distinguishes it from mere survival. Curiously—maybe not—all the old ideologies are conservative because they believe in work. Some of them, like Marxism and most brands of anarchism, believe in work all the more fiercely because they believe in so little else.

Liberals say we should end employment discrimination. I say we should end employment. Conservatives support right-to-work laws. Following Karl Marx's wayward son-in-law Paul Lafargue I support the right to be lazy. Leftists favor full employment. Like the surrealists—except that I'm not kidding—I favor full unemployment. Trotskyists agitate for permanent revolution. I agitate for permanent revelry. But if all the ideologues (as they do) advocate work—and not only because they plan to make other people do theirs—they are strangely reluctant to say so. They will carry on endlessly about wages, hours, working conditions, exploitation, productivity, profitability. They'll gladly talk about anything but work itself. These experts who offer to do our thinking for us rarely share their conclusions about work, for all its saliency in the lives of all of us. Among themselves they quibble over the details. Unions and management agree that we ought to sell the time of our lives in exchange for survival, although they haggle over the price. Marxists think we should be bossed by bureaucrats. Libertarians think we should be bossed by businessmen. Feminists don't care which form bossing takes so long as the bosses are women. Clearly these ideology-mongers have serious differences over how to divvy up the spoils of power. Just as clearly, none of them have any objection to power as such and all of them want to keep us working.


(The rest at the link...)
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby Snowrunner » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 02:14:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'I') would LOVE to live in a society like that. This whole idea of staying on the clock for 8 hours a day regardless if the job is done or not is just insane - I mean, what's the point of "finding" stuff to do, or "looking busy" just to run out the clock each day?


I had more than one job where that was the case, it's a remnant of the industrialization. Machines don't need breaks (well, occasionally for maintenance they do, but much less than humans). So humans were "bend" to the machine, spend 8 hours a day at the machine and then go home etc. It's a foul system really, but I am thinking it'll stay with us for a while longer.

On the original post.

My office overlooks one of Vancouvers harbors, before the "break" I took over Christmas and new years, container ships came in, unloaded and loaded containers. It seemed to be a zero sum game, meaning, the ship came in deep in the water and left deep in the water.

Since this week I noticed that the ships are riding quite high, both inbound and outbound, so high in fact that I could see the screws turn in the water.

Not a good sign.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby alokin » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 03:24:38

Well, that means that some of us may be without jobs very soon.
But does this mean real shortages? You can't really talk about shortage on plasma TV's, that's not really affecting anybody. I mean the stuff we really need - will there be shortages of this?
And factories shut and may reopen, however that is not really likely as we won't have money to buy.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 10:24:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'W')ell, that means that some of us may be without jobs very soon.
But does this mean real shortages? You can't really talk about shortage on plasma TV's, that's not really affecting anybody. I mean the stuff we really need - will there be shortages of this?
And factories shut and may reopen, however that is not really likely as we won't have money to buy.


Shortages on TV's (or just no one buying them) affects those dock workers and truck drivers and salespeople employed in their shipping, distribution, design and sale.

These people loose their health insurance and do not go in for "little things" like suicidal idealition, flu, or to have that hip replaced. Nurses, support staff, CNA's they get laid off (already happening btw).

State revenues go down from job losses, medical assistance is cut as well as other programs... all equals more jobs which ripples through the economy.

Waste = unnecessary consumption that does not support your own livelihood.

Vital Concumption = unnecessary consumption that does (directly or indirectly) support your livelihood.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby RdSnt » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 10:41:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '
')Since this week I noticed that the ships are riding quite high, both inbound and outbound, so high in fact that I could see the screws turn in the water.

Not a good sign.


Also a sign that the incoming ships are dumping their bilges out of sight of land so they don't get pollution charges. They don't cross the ocean riding that high.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby lawnchair » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 10:46:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', '
')But does this mean real shortages? You can't really talk about shortage on plasma TV's, that's not really affecting anybody. I mean the stuff we really need - will there be shortages of this?


From one perspective, no, there shouldn't be. It's silly. There's entirely no shortage of food or housing. Petroleum... maybe a little, but the equation is within the realm of even the mildest conservation.

Yet, there can be starvation and homelessness.

Say trucking conglomerate A transports food 20 percent of the time and plastic pumpkins, etc 80 percent of the time. Suddenly no more demand for the plastic crap. Boom. He could, maybe, lay off most of his workers or ask them to work fewer hours. Maybe. But, he's still got leases on a lot of trucks. Bankruptcy. Eventually, someone gets some of the trucks in the fire sale, and starts small again. That can take a while.

Plus, all those suddenly jobless TV sellers and botox injectors are capable of some pretty intense hoarding behavior in a panic.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby bratticus » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 11:10:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'T')hese people loose their health insurance and do not go in for "little things" like suicidal idealition, flu, or to have that hip replaced. Nurses, support staff, CNA's they get laid off (already happening btw).


Scammers all

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Patients Caught In Insurance, Hospital Dispute
Thousands To Told To Find New Doctors

TheBostonChannel.com
January 14, 2009

... skip ...

The battle is over the rates that the insurance company pays doctors at Tufts. The medical center it has lost tens of millions of dollars in its deals with Blue Cross Blue Shield.

"Tufts Medical Center strongly hopes to come to an agreement with Blue Cross Blue Shield of Massachusetts so that our patients can continue to see the doctors they know and trust," according to a statement.

Blue Cross said that it was Tufts that walked away from the table, leaving it with very little time to handle 14,000 members that are being affected.

... snip ...
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 11:16:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'T')hese people loose their health insurance and do not go in for "little things" like suicidal idealition, flu, or to have that hip replaced. Nurses, support staff, CNA's they get laid off (already happening btw).


Scammers all


um... no. Not all. In fact a rather small proportion. But you can believe whatever you want, just realize that it will apply to you or your loved one when they "really do" need a hospital bed. If it ain't there; it ain't there regardless if you are a "scammer" or "really sick."
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby bratticus » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 11:32:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'I')n fact a rather small proportion.


of health insurance companies?
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Thu 15 Jan 2009, 11:36:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'I')n fact a rather small proportion.


of health insurance companies?


My apologies, I thought you were referring to patients. I realize I read your quote a little too quickly and with one too few cups of coffee...
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby IslandCrow » Wed 11 Feb 2009, 06:42:05

Trade volumes sink even further http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/davos/7882816.stm

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')hina's exports fell more than expected in January, down 17.5% from a year earlier, marking the biggest drop in more than 10 years, figures have shown.

Imports were down 43.1% in the month compared with a year ago, as China's economy continued to be hit by the global economic slowdown.

Analysts say the slowdown could prompt more factory closures and job losses.

China's global trade surplus widened to $39.1bn last month, after recording a surplus of $39bn in December.


Huge drops :shock: But the imports are falling faster than the exports, keeping the financial imbalances in the short term. I guess that imports are a forward indicator, in that a lot of Chinesse made goods had components made else where but we just assembled in China.

I wonder how this will feed into demade destruction for oil (very little from the ships as they are so efficient, more from inland distribution, more from people making fewer shopping trips, and some from having fewer shop assistants needing to get to work).
We should teach our children the 4-Rs: Reduce, Reuse, Recycle and Rejoice.
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Re: Shipping rates hit zero as trade sinks

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 07 Apr 2009, 04:41:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')quot;If you sit in one of the glamorous bars on the south side of Hong Kong, especially in the evening, you will see the lights of lots of ships," says Tim Huxley, chief executive of Wah Kwong Shipping, one of Hong Kong's largest ship-owners.

"Those ships are sitting there, waiting," he says.

"Those are bulk carriers and container ships that haven't got anywhere to go at the moment, there's no cargo for them to carry.

"They're sitting waiting for instructions, waiting for an upturn in trade that will see them moving again, carrying the raw materials that are needed to make the finished goods that are then exported out of southern China to the markets of the West."

Hong Kong has about 70 ships in "hot lay-up" at the moment, meaning they are waiting with full crews. Singapore has several hundred ships in "cold lay-up", where the ships are without crew.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') ship owner will typically rent out, or charter, a ship for a fixed rate over a number of years and the charterer will often sub-charter that ship on to a sub-charterer for a higher rate and a shorter period.

Such chains can go up to six or seven sub-charterers and, in current times, can break when any one of those in the chain starts experiencing problems.

That is when the shipping lawyers come in.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7973752.stm
nice long article
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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