[IronSheik]

$2+ a gallon now.
What happens at $3, $4, or $5?
When do you decide it is to much and walk to work.
How many could actually walk to work?
How high would it have to get before most
would have to quit their jobs because they could
not afford to go to work?
Would that be the time to bug-out,
or would it already be to late?
If no gas was sold for a few days
would the price come down?

IronSheik does not worry.
Have much wealth and need no job.

I have many shoes for sale.
I can let them go cheap!
Let me know.

[Guest]

I work on the other side of the county, so walking isn't an option. That's too bad; I actually like what I do.

[KiddieKorral]

That was me. I forgot to log in.

[Leanan]

Many of my coworkers live a long distance from the office. (Real estate is pricey around here, and for many, driving an hour or more a day, each way, is a price they are willing to pay for affordable housing.)

It's not a formal poll, but asking around, if gas hit $8 a gallon, they say they'd camp out in the office and go home only for weekends. Or pay me to put them up for the night.

The cost of commuting such long distances really is insane. Their insurance is higher, since they drive more. They fill up their tanks twice a week. Their cars are worn out before they are paid off. Many of them are looking for jobs closer to their homes. But they aren't easy to find, in this economy.

[Coolman]

Luckly I live 5.5 miles from work and within 10 miles of everything I need, so I don't own a car, I just bike everywere.

[Cool Hand Linc]

I live close to work. Closer than anybody else! About 2.5 miles. We have people who live 50 miles and more. It will be interested to see where the point is that people do begin to take a lesser paying job thats closer to home.

I feel I pay to much to drive a car now!

[PhilBiker]

People can carpool, that offers -huge- savings when gas prices go up and it is relatively easy to do. Heck, those SUVs that we love to hate could end up being the most efficient vehicles of all. What's better, 7 people in a Suburban getting 15mpg or 2 people in an Insight getting 50?

[Mark_i]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople can carpool, that offers -huge- savings when gas prices go up and it is relatively easy to do. Heck, those SUVs that we love to hate could end up being the most efficient vehicles of all. What's better, 7 people in a Suburban getting 15mpg or 2 people in an Insight getting 50?

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')loser than anybody else! About 2.5 miles.

[nigel]

Men arguing over who's is smallest?

For each individual the cost-benefit analysis will obviously differ. There is no one price barrier. Economic disorder occurs when the price of an 'essential' such as energy rises suddenly and disproportionatley in relation to most peoples' incomes. Sudden readajustment is often painful if not crippling.

The best way for societies to prepare for a continuous price rise in petrol would be to raise taxes on it now. The full cost of it should be in the price and then some. People would alter their lives and locations accordingly over a reasonable period of time and would not be so prone to financial ruin. Once long distance car/air travel prices people out of their jobs they will have to sell-up and move closer to work. The prices of such property will fall. Prices of city housing will rise. A 100 mile round trip to a Walmart will make it an expensive place to buy food as opposed to a walk to the citymart on one's own block etc etc.

At the moment, petrol prices in the USA are absurdly low and bear no relation to the true cost. Pollution, climate change, resource wars, foreign policy, the costs of maintaining world stability in the Middle East, road deaths and injuries, health costs, distorted pricing in food markets and so on should all be laid onto the cost of petrol.

There is little doubt that, the way things are structured in the USA at the moment, the average Joe over there will be hurt more than the average John here, in the UK by, say, a quadrupling of petrol prices. We travel less because the country is tiny. The stupid thing is, we are increasingly following your trend towards out of town shopping, moves to the country entailing longer commutes etc.

By the way, on the macho thing, mine's about half a metre!

(I walk down two floors to my office ).

[nigel]

Indirect cost of cheap petrol?

http://www.hwysafety.org/safety_facts/f ... eneral.htm

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he best way for societies to prepare for a continuous price rise in petrol would be to raise taxes on it now.

[nigel]

I don't know who's worse, the politicians or the short-sighted electorate that puts them there - us!

[guest]

I have a few questions, I'm very very new to the whole peak oil happinings in the world, and from what i've been reading all of you seem to be thinking that the poo is going to hit the fan really soon. So when or what year do you think that it will start?

[Aldert]

Guest, the more I read, the earlier I expect the energycrisis to take off.
In addition to a shortage of oil, we are facing a shortage in natural gas. Especially in the USA.

I currently expect that we will 'feel' the crisis unraveling within the next 5 years. People will start noticing the little things like paying more for gas, food and heating. They will wonder what is causing it. Expect higher inflation, a new economic recession and a blackout or two.

[nigel]

New Guest - this is a great site, have fun! . A name or tag would help.

As to the BIG question - no one's got a clue. There's a division between the cornucopian/optimists who think oil is abiotic and oil wells will naturally refill or there's seas of the stuff still to be found (they tend to get hammered by...) the die-off Malthusian ultra end of the worlders who like the drama and speculation about survival, self-sufficiency and self-defence and the rationalist/realists/sceptics - (me) who also haven't a clue.

Timings of peak production range from 1988, (the Hubbert/Campbell/Deffeyes school) who push back the date almost annually - this lot say it is imminent - or happened already ( they are buying up caves and beans), others say 2008- 2015, the 'official' view held generally by the large parts of the industry, Odell, the USGS etc is 2025 - 2050. BUT no one has a clue as everyone lies about their reserves. Considering no one's doing anything much about it and the Chinese are all about to get cars 2050 might be optimistic and anyway, is too soon for comfort.

All seem to agree we are approaching the peak.. whether this is THE peak or just the Saudis creating a false peak to bump up prices is anyone's guess. Fact is the stuff is currently in short supply and an attack by Saudi terrorists - any terrorists - would create instant economic mayhem.

Is that a fair summation chaps?

[Pops]

I suspect that many more people will be laid off than volunteer to be unemployed. Layoffs will certainly rise as more and more disposable income is spent on the rising price of all necessities – not just gas.

Carpooling, park and ride and telecommuting will probably increase dramatically. As for how long mine is, I’d say about 5” – the commute through the door from my kitchen to my office, that is.

When? Your guess is as good as mine.

[aurora]

thank you so much for your replys to my question, (how soon?)