by MonteQuest » Sun 18 Jan 2009, 13:27:06
For many years, economists held the view that since money saved was later invested; you could never save too much. This notion was revised by economist John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s, who asserted that thrift is virtuous only up to a point. An increase in the savings portion of your disposal income reduces the expenditure on goods and will lower total demand in the economy. This thrift is commendable up to the point others in the economy wish to borrow your savings for investment. Herein lies the paradox.
On the face of it, saving more of your disposable income would seem to lead to an increase in overall savings, but an economic multiplier model predicts that total savings will remain the same and income will decline.
Thus, the paradox of thrift implies that more savings will harm the economy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nother way to illustrate the logic of the paradox of thrift uses the analogy of the leaky bucket. Consider what will happen if the savings hole in the bucket is made a little larger, which corresponds to people becoming thriftier. Initially there will be a larger flow of water out. But this cannot continue indefinitely. Equilibrium exists when the inflow equals the outflow, and the inflow has not changed. This means that the water level must drop so that the pressure forcing water out the bottom will be reduced. Less pressure means less outflow, and at some lower level of water equilibrium will be reestablished.
Thus, the Keynesian denigration of saving is currently being used to get people to stop saving their money for a rainy day, paying down debt, and just flat stop being thrifty, while we create massive deficits in order to redistribute wealth from those who would save it to those who would spend it. With all this infusion of liquidity, are they trying to convince people that prices are going to go up later (inflation), thus encouraging them to spend now?
This can also be readily applied to the
Paradox of Conservation.
Both have the collective paradox: what is good for the individual will weaken the economy. Because as conservation may be a virtue for the individual (microeconomics), it damages the economy as a whole (macroeconomics).
In the Paradox of Thrift, faced with slowing demand, businesses would not necessarily use the extra money available in the economy to invest. In the Paradox of Conservation, faced with slowing demand, businesses would not necessarily use the extra money available in the economy to invest, either.
However, since much of the conservation (reduced spending) in a post-peak world would be targeted at less energy consumption, faced with slowing demand, would businesses use the lower energy costs available in the economy to either lower prices to stimulate new demand or do more with less costs and increase profitability?
If they did, the conservation of energy gains would be used up to fuel increased consumption or profitability and a growth in GDP which takes more energy.
If they did not, then the conservation measures induce a self-imposed economic contraction. Either way, in a growth based economy, thrift and conservation spell trouble.
Does this lead to a recession or a depression? Isn’t that just the question we are waiting to see answered with our demand destruction and increased saving’s rate? The word on the street is that increased savings is killing the economy; we got to spend.
What if we also tried to be energy thrifty about now?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."