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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Oil : Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: "Peak Oil" is BS

Unread postby ki11ercane » Sun 04 Jan 2009, 16:37:56

When I see someone post here indicating that they believe is Peak Oil is a pile of cow cookies, I smile, a greedy smile! I smile knowing one less sap is going to be around that I will have to worry about feeding, keeping, and maintaining socially. More room for me, my family, and their family!

All I can say is "thank you for thinking PO is BS!"
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Re: "Peak Oil" is BS

Unread postby Geodesic » Sun 04 Jan 2009, 17:01:26

I said it's BS "for now". Amazing how hysterical people get when you question their PO religion. People were pointing to $147. oil as proof of imminent PO. The dollar index was ~72 in July; it's ~82 now so yes it is stronger because as bad as the US economy is the rest of the world is worse. That will probably continue to be the case at least throughout 2009.

Obviously PO will occur at some point but betting on it is a fool's bet as I've discovered. The imminent demise of civilization has been greatly exaggerated. At this point judging by the markets and oil reserves throughout the world the PO doomers like Simmons, Heinberg and Kunstler and my investment adviser have been proven wrong and the debunkers like the oil sheik who said, "PO is a myth" have been proven right.

Who knows what will happen in the future but it's a waste of time obsessing about it. You're just as likely to be done in by a falling icicle as PO. If you want to live in a mobile in the desert with your shotgun and Rottweiler waiting for "the big one" be my guest but I've gotten quite fond of my petroleum based products and plan to enjoy them as long as possible.
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Re: "Peak Oil" is BS

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 04 Jan 2009, 17:06:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', 'I') said it's BS "for now". Amazing how hysterical people get when you question their PO religion. People were pointing to $147. oil as proof of imminent PO. The dollar index was ~72 in July; it's ~82 now so yes it is stronger because as bad as the US economy is the rest of the world is worse. That will probably continue to be the case at least throughout 2009.

Obviously PO will occur at some point but betting on it is a fool's bet as I've discovered. The imminent demise of civilization has been greatly exaggerated. At this point judging by the markets and oil reserves throughout the world the PO doomers like Simmons, Heinberg and Kunstler have been proven wrong and the debunkers like the oil sheik who said, "PO is a myth" have been proven right.

Who knows what will happen in the future but it's a waste of time obsessing about it. You're just as likely to be done in by a falling icicle as PO. If you want to live in a mobile in the desert with your shotgun and Rottweiler waiting for "the big one" be my guest but I've gotten quite fond of my petroleum based products and plan to enjoy them as long as possible.

C-E-R-A............ :razz:
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Re: "Peak Oil" is BS

Unread postby ki11ercane » Sun 04 Jan 2009, 17:13:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', 'I') said it's BS "for now". Amazing how hysterical people get when you question their PO religion. People were pointing to $147. oil as proof of imminent PO. The dollar index was ~72 in July; it's ~82 now so yes it is stronger because as bad as the US economy is the rest of the world is worse. That will probably continue to be the case at least throughout 2009.


Geodesic, I was on the PO bandwagon early 2005, almost 3 years before oil was $148.00 a barrel. Some others here have been PO aware since the 70's.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '
')Obviously PO will occur at some point but betting on it is a fool's bet as I've discovered.


I'd happy being either right and prepared or wrong and a fool. Either way I win. I can live with "fool." I won't live if I don't plan and prepare and things go south.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '
')The imminent demise of civilization has been greatly exaggerated.


Which simply proves you're not one of the hundreds of thousands of Americans homeless, broke, or living outdoors, and not one of the millions of people in the world without a job or a means to survive. For them, their civilization is already at the state of demise. Eventually the MSM will find it unable to ignore the growing numbers. Sad but true.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '
')At this point judging by the markets and oil reserves throughout the world the PO doomers like Simmons. Heinberg and Kunstler have been proven wrong and the debunkers like the oil sheik who said, "PO is a myth" have been proven right.


If you can find me one published piece either on the Internet or the real world that with causality proves it either way, show it to me. We're not idiots here, we already know the answer to that one, but you're a New Guy here, will give you the chance to make your case.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '
')Who knows what will happen in the future but it's a waste of time obsessing about it.


I think the only person obsessing here is you with your passion to convince us not to do anything about the future. That's obsessive.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '
')You're just as likely to be done in by a falling icicle as PO.


Which is why I make it a point to "prep" by walking around hanging icicles and not going on tour groups to underground caves. It's worked so far. I am "icicle free since 1973."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '
')If you want to live in a mobile in the desert with your shotgun and Rottweiler waiting for "the big one" be my guest but I've gotten quite fond of my petroleum based products and plan to enjoy them as long as possible.


And as I said in my previous post, I hope you do.
Last edited by ki11ercane on Sun 04 Jan 2009, 21:23:24, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Peak Oil" is BS

Unread postby Ludi » Sun 04 Jan 2009, 17:26:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', '
')Who knows what will happen in the future but it's a waste of time obsessing about it. You're just as likely to be done in by a falling icicle as PO. If you want to live in a mobile in the desert with your shotgun and Rottweiler waiting for "the big one" be my guest but I've gotten quite fond of my petroleum based products and plan to enjoy them as long as possible.


I've found it's quite possible to prepare for tough times and enjoy the petroleum based products. Doesn't need to be one thing or the other. There doesn't have to be "one right answer" for every situation.

Just sayin'. :)
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Re: "Peak Oil" is BS

Unread postby NoWorries » Sun 04 Jan 2009, 17:26:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'I') think the OP means to say that last summer's run-up was not a direct result of geological peak (which many of us knew at the time) but was rather due to a confluence of primarily economic factors. It was a "false peak", or an artificial inflation of oil prices-- but it gave us a taste of what lies down the road as supplies deplete.
I doubt OP meant that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NoWorries', 'I') think the real unknown here i shte US dollar. It should be much much weaker right now than it is. One can say that is also an artificial high, just as oil was 6 mos ago. Investors are buying T-Bills (inexplicably) instead of oil as a hedge. So we've gone from one "bubble" to another, in that sense.

But that could change very quickl
Why should it be weaker? Every economy is in the same situation, except maybe Cuba, Zimbabwe, and Somalia.


Because the US is by far the largest debtor nation in the world (and possibly in all of history). It may be strong relative to Zimbabwe et al, but I don't consider that serious consolation but rather a measure of how low it's gotten.

The US economy is running on borrowed money and borrowed time.
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Re: "Peak Oil" is BS

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 04 Jan 2009, 20:45:38

Peak Oil isn't about the peak price of oil.

Peak Oil will occur when global oil production maxes out.

The price of oil, whether high or low, is a side-effect of peak oil and its effect on the economy.
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Re: "Peak Oil" vs Gold

Unread postby Jotapay » Mon 05 Jan 2009, 01:44:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', 'I') think it's time to face reality. "Peak Oil" is BS at least for now.


One of the dumbest things I've heard this year. Anything else to add there while you've started this line of thought, professor?
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Re: "Peak Oil" vs Gold

Unread postby ki11ercane » Mon 05 Jan 2009, 02:11:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', 'I') think it's time to face reality. "Peak Oil" is BS at least for now.


One of the dumbest things I've heard this year. Anything else to add there while you've started this line of thought, professor?


Another point Geodesic doesn't seem to grasp is simple math. Oil was $9.82 US$ not adjusted for inflation 10 years ago. ($19.64 if you do adjust) Today it's 200% higher adjusted against inflation.

And if it runs up again, sky's the limit. Hysterical hoping it won't.
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Re: "Peak Oil" vs Gold

Unread postby outcast » Mon 05 Jan 2009, 06:51:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ho knows what will happen in the future but it's a waste of time obsessing about it. You're just as likely to be done in by a falling icicle as PO. If you want to live in a mobile in the desert with your shotgun and Rottweiler waiting for "the big one" be my guest but I've gotten quite fond of my petroleum based products and plan to enjoy them as long as possible.



Some people here have made a run for their doomsteads or are scared shitless because of fear mongering by people like y2kunstler (a jab at Kunstler's failed Y2K predictions), some others like the cult of monte have because they hate modernization and want to turn the clock back 100-200 years.
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Re: "Peak Oil" vs Gold

Unread postby Geodesic » Mon 05 Jan 2009, 10:28:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jotapay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', 'I') think it's time to face reality. "Peak Oil" is BS at least for now.
One of the dumbest things I've heard this year. Anything else to add there while you've started this line of thought, professor?

Brilliant analysis. Who needs statistics when you can have a hissy fit.
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Re: "Peak Oil" vs Gold

Unread postby Geodesic » Mon 05 Jan 2009, 10:33:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ki11ercane', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geodesic', 'I') think it's time to face reality. "Peak Oil" is BS at least for now.
Another point Geodesic doesn't seem to grasp is simple math. Oil was $9.82 US$ not adjusted for inflation 10 years ago. ($19.64 if you do adjust) Today it's 200% higher adjusted against inflation. And if it runs up again, sky's the limit. Hysterical hoping it won't.

Another point you don't seem to grasp is gold is a more accurate indicator of value than phony money which was one point of the article. By that indicator the price of oil is the same as it was 10 years ago and heading lower.
Last edited by Geodesic on Mon 05 Jan 2009, 11:14:27, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: "Peak Oil" vs Gold

Unread postby Geodesic » Mon 05 Jan 2009, 10:40:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', 'S')ome people here have made a run for their doomsteads or are scared shitless because of fear mongering by people like y2kunstler (a jab at Kunstler's failed Y2K predictions), some others like the cult of monte have because they hate modernization and want to turn the clock back 100-200 years.

Sounds strangely familiar. I've read a lot of JHK's PO writing and he's basically just "repurposing" his Y2K material. The end is near, run & hide. Still, I'm getting all nostalgic over Y2K. Seems like the good 'ole days.
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Oil production rises. Gold affected by FX movements

Unread postby barbara23 » Tue 27 Jan 2009, 13:27:47

Hey guys, how are you doing. We have good news for those of you who like to trade commodities these days.

Demand and supply go hand in hand, if there is huge supply and not enough demand the price of that commodity dips and that is what is happening with oil. The Energy Information Administration showed the US crude supplies have risen by 6.1m barrels in the week ending 16 January.

After declining throughout the day, oil price steadied due to comments from White House spokesperson, Robert Gibbs saying that the government will soon introduce measures to tackle the economic slowdown crisis. Crude oil for March delivery finished at $43.67 in New York trading, up 12 cents.

Gold was not as lucky as oil in sneeking some last minute gains yesterday, as dollar took a stand against the euro. The February contract for gold rose $8.70 to $858.80 an ounce.

Cheers!

Barbie :razz:

{link removed by Shannymara per CoC 3.1.7}
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Re: Oil production rises. Gold affected by FX movements

Unread postby Maddog78 » Tue 27 Jan 2009, 17:00:28

I don't mean to be rude exactly but what really is the point of these little "update" posts of yours?
You seem nice and all but your info. is usually a couple of days or more out of date.
Anybody seriously interested in trading commodities has real time windows open on their commodity of interest.
At least I do. :-D
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Re: Oil production rises. Gold affected by FX movements

Unread postby scienceteacher » Tue 27 Jan 2009, 19:53:04

For god's sake woman - leave it out! You don't sound important - just purile.

Your statements are childish. Try this for some serious numbers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZsY1rFr_yw

Thanks.
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Re: Oil production rises. Gold affected by FX movements

Unread postby Micki » Tue 27 Jan 2009, 20:28:34

Appreciate the effort Barb, but I am also a bit confused with what the purpose of this is.
It is snapshots that is useful for short term only, but anyone wanting to trade short term needs to pay attention to the market and real time news, not PO postings. Furthermore I think most posters here follow price movements quite well at least of markets they are interested in. If they don't, they probably aren't that interested anyway.

If you really are into trading you might want to add some commentry like when there is trigger pointso for buy/sell and what you analysis is or what it is based on etc. And you might also want to give a longer term outlook so that people know where you are coming from (if you have any bias at all).

If it is just publishing of news, then make sure it at least in your mind is something important enough to publish. i.e. if a February contract Gold price closes at $858.80 doesn't mean anything particular to you, don't assume it will for anyone else either (as mentioned, those who really care are following the market anyway.) And if it does mean something to you a commentry would be wolcome as some of us otherwise will continue to wonder about the purpose.

If there was some completely different purpose with such posts, then apologies if I missed it.

Anyway hope I didn't scare you off and don't expect everyone here to agree with you. If you think you are doing something valuable , then that is what matters.
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Re: Oil production rises. Gold affected by FX movements

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Tue 27 Jan 2009, 20:53:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('barbara23', ' ')Crude oil for March delivery finished at $43.67 in New York trading, up 12 cents.


That was last Thursday, 22 Jan 09.

Why would any of us have the slightest interest in that snapshot of historical information?
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Re: Oil production rises. Gold affected by FX movements

Unread postby ColossalContrarian » Tue 27 Jan 2009, 21:03:57

c'mon barbie couldn't you've found a better avatar than that?

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