[coyote]

When I want to know the answer to something important, and my rational mind is having trouble with it, I have an intuition trick I taught myself long ago that has actually had a fair success rate for me over the years. First I load up on the subject - read, ponder, read some more, everything I can find that's relevant, until I'm practically dreaming the stuff. Then I stop all of it, and deliberately keep all thought of the subject out of my mind, no reading or pondering, for several weeks. Finally, one day, at the moment the thought occurs to me, I ask myself the question - as you would if trying to catch someone off guard. When I do this, it's important to go with the very first answer I 'receive,' not the second (even though the second is often much stronger, and can sometimes be mistaken for the first if I'm not careful).

What I'm doing isn't mystical or anything - I'm just giving my subconscious some time to percolate, filter, and correlate material that is too complex or too psychologically loaded for my conscious mind to sort out. It doesn't have a perfect track record, obviously, but good enough for me to believe it's not a waste of time, that there is actually something to this method. I've used it for everything from finding lost keys to winning baseball pools.

In 2005, I discovered peak oil. I was quite concerned, as are many of us, with the question of how much time I had to prepare. Late in that year, probably around this time, I took myself through my little procedure. After reading like a madman, then purposefully ignoring all hint of the subject for several weeks, I stopped suddenly in the middle of doing something else and asked: When does the shit hit the fan?

The answer came, immediately and quite clear: 2009. This next year.

The way things are looking now, with "demand destruction" the term of the hour, nothing's going to be hitting much of anything in the next year, except maybe the economy hitting the other side of our magnificent housing and derivatives bubble. Nevertheless, I figured I'd post my little non-rational projection before the new year kicks off. You never know.

[Ludi]

Entirely depends on your personal definition of "The Sh*t Hits the Fan." Does it mean YOU lose your job, or does it mean a bunch of other people lose their jobs? Does it mean starvation in the Third World (already happening) or does it mean there's no food at your local grocery store?

So your projection doesn't really mean anything specific to other people, though it may mean something specific to you.

[GoghGoner]

I have always been able to successfully complete computer programming tasks on teams where other members could not solve the problem. I read the code for some amount of time, then I sleep, then I try to change a part and then the problem is solved (most of the time I think my changes won't work but they do). I think I am successful because I don't try to go line-by-line and keep track of every detail -- in many cases (with a 200,000K lines of code), this is impossible.

I trust my intuition.

[korosten]

This is cool, I do the exact same thing... also with software engineering . Whenever I have a very hard problem I read all I can about it, then I do something totally different for a while, such as sleep, or go for a walk, or play with the kids and deliberately NOT think about it. Most of the time the answer WILL appear suddenly!

Also when fixing bugs, I seem to have this almost scary ability to find and fix bugs, even though *I* think I have no idea what I'm doing. but my intuition "tells" me, "just change that +1 to -1" or similar, and almost all of the time it works.

I think in this case it works similar to playing the piano. If you play for many years, you don't have to actively *think* about playing anymore, you just know how to do it and your hands almost play automatically.

For me it is mainly with software engineering (and bug fixing), but also with other complex problems.

I do think that it is possible to use the subconscious for other problems as well - and as you said, often it is hard to listen to that first "answer". (it also works with "telling the time - try it! Ask yourself, what time is it, whithout checking or thinking and very often you will be very close (+- 15 minutes))

[Heineken]

Environmental and economic conditions will continue to worsen on average. How much worse is anyone's guess.

I think what will stand out most in 2009 is a "coming down to earth" of current grossly unrealistic expectations regarding Obama. Disappointment and anger will gradually displace most of the optimism.

There could be an epic geopolitical event, too. We're overdue for one. Always the wild card.

[pedalling_faster]

there's intuition & there's intuition.

it was part intuition that led me to think Organic Online was a good investment in 1999. it was hope that led me to keep buying it.

it was intuition - a deep feeling of "Heeby-Jeeby", that led me to abort a skin-dive in 2002. i later on found out that a large adult great white attacked & killed a large adult mother seal about 100 yards west of where i would have dived that day. at the time, i had never aborted a dive, and never have since.

for people that subscribed to From the Wilderness, there's been a stream of "the economy is imploding" news since 2005-2006. what manifested in September & October in 2008.

all the data points point to a further slowing economy next year. it's already slow. local crime is already up - there was an inflection point in my neighborhood sometime during the last year (after i moved in ).

it's interesting to watch, it's important not to dwell on. tinned peaches & pears are on sale at the local market, so to compensate for this time BS'ing, maybe i'll "shut up & load up".

getting back to the crime - dentist office 2 blocks away robbed 2 weeks ago ... $20,000 in jewelry stolen from the house across the street 3 months ago ... neighbor's car keyed a month ago, looked like the "keyer" was trying to imitate with Christo or one of those artists. i'm not listing the Wamu robber-at-gunpoint that happened a week ago, because that seems more 'routine'.

the state of California is stopping payment on about $4 billion worth of bond-funded projects. in a month or so, when the layoffs from that manifest, i expect it will be noticeable.

to me, the trucks not bringing food to the stores, and/or riots like the LA riots for weeks on end, those are TSHTF kinds of things.

garbage pick-up shifting to every other week, official unemployment climbing to 10%, those are not TSHTF, they're a continuation of present trend-lines.

maybe it's time to eat some more eathworms. the first time, i ate 2. i was planning to eat 4 the second time, working my way up to a full helping (1/4 pound). i have a choice between red-worms, the kind that are normally used in vermiculture, and good old-fashioned earthworms. Mmmm Good

[JoeW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('korosten', 'T')his is cool, I do the exact same thing... also with software engineering .

Also when fixing bugs, I seem to have this almost scary ability to find and fix bugs, even though *I* think I have no idea what I'm doing. but my intuition "tells" me, "just change that +1 to -1" or similar, and almost all of the time it works.

[Golgo13]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('korosten', 'T')his is cool, I do the exact same thing... also with software engineering . Whenever I have a very hard problem I read all I can about it, then I do something totally different for a while, such as sleep, or go for a walk, or play with the kids and deliberately NOT think about it. Most of the time the answer WILL appear suddenly!

Also when fixing bugs, I seem to have this almost scary ability to find and fix bugs, even though *I* think I have no idea what I'm doing. but my intuition "tells" me, "just change that +1 to -1" or similar, and almost all of the time it works.

I think in this case it works similar to playing the piano. If you play for many years, you don't have to actively *think* about playing anymore, you just know how to do it and your hands almost play automatically.

For me it is mainly with software engineering (and bug fixing), but also with other complex problems.

[threadbear]

My intuitive track record is pretty good. I'll go on record that we won't see collapse, but the beginnings of tremendous change, socially, politically and environmentally. It will be very hard, but much good will come of it and we will return to our roots, looking after each other, friends, family, community. People who have will be much more willing to share with those who don't as the perception of poverty will change. It will be seen by more people as a consequence of circumstances, not the result of some kind of character defect.

[Serial_Worrier]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Golgo13', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('korosten', 'T')his is cool, I do the exact same thing... also with software engineering . Whenever I have a very hard problem I read all I can about it, then I do something totally different for a while, such as sleep, or go for a walk, or play with the kids and deliberately NOT think about it. Most of the time the answer WILL appear suddenly!

Also when fixing bugs, I seem to have this almost scary ability to find and fix bugs, even though *I* think I have no idea what I'm doing. but my intuition "tells" me, "just change that +1 to -1" or similar, and almost all of the time it works.

I think in this case it works similar to playing the piano. If you play for many years, you don't have to actively *think* about playing anymore, you just know how to do it and your hands almost play automatically.

For me it is mainly with software engineering (and bug fixing), but also with other complex problems.

[coyote]

Thanks for the responses. I realize my bold prediction is just a bit on the vague side - however, my intuition wasn't any more specific than that. I can say that when I asked the question, I wasn't referring to only myself - personally losing my job would suck, but wouldn't count in my mind as a catastrophic event. By TSHTF, I suppose I simply meant some seismic event or development that leads the world at large to understand about peak oil, precipitating a general scramble to respond, maybe a bad market crash, military activity, real shortages, that sort of thing. Anything more specific than that would be the conscious me speculating, and not the "information" I received from my subconscious.

It's vague and silly. But this year has been stuck in my mind since 2005. I guess I'll find out if I was on the mark or not.

[WildRose]

My intuition tells me that 2009 is the year we, individually and collectively, begin to truly live within our means.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', 'M')y intuition tells me that 2009 is the year we, individually and collectively, begin to truly live within our means.

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', 'M')y intuition tells me that 2009 is the year we, individually and collectively, begin to truly live within our means.

[Heineken]

I don't think carrying capacity has anything to do with economics, WildRose.

It's a biological and environmental phenomenon.

The earth doesn't give a hoot about human economic systems.

[Pops]

Not sure if this is relevant but in the different projects I take on from job or location change to graphic design to construction to farming I often study hard, make a few tentative steps then lallygag around and let it stew.

Like the OP, many times I come up with a much better/easier/cheaper process/design/approach.

Not sure how that applies to predicting the future...

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') don't think carrying capacity has anything to do with economics, WildRose.

It's a biological and environmental phenomenon.

The earth doesn't give a hoot about human economic systems.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'W')hen I want to know the answer to something important ... I have an intuition trick ... that has actually had a fair success rate ... When I do this, it's important to go with the very first answer I 'receive,' not the second.

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') think what will stand out most in 2009 is a "coming down to earth" of current grossly unrealistic expectations regarding Obama.

[Heineken]

VMarc, my position is that we're an empire in decline (for many of the classic reasons) and that the slide has reached a point of no return. So, I don't think it really matters who's president anymore. The government is hopelessly incompetent and bloated out of all proportion and is about to get more so.

Obama isn't in office but he's stated his intentions. Basically, they're more of the same.