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My Kids Want To hear it from you.

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.

Unread postby Aaron » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 17:20:21

"However, assessment results are controlled by geology-based input parameters supplied by assessment geologists who are regional experts, and not by computer-generated statistical projections of historical trends."

"You keep using that word... I do not think it means what you think it means."

- Inigo Montoya

They are not doing projections based on historical trends... which is obvious to say the least, since they predict a massive upswing in discovery of new oil.

I'm failing to comprehend your disagreement here actually...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he USGS isn't using historical trends for anything, or making any predictions of future trends. They do resources with geological experts.


What does that even mean?

They don't try & predict future trends?

Ummm... yes they do... I posted them in this thread with a link you provided. Based on "...assessment geologists who are regional experts", as your quote notes.

They predict 2.6+ trillion barrels URR.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')..smashing together complete and different distributions in such a way as to generate a probabilistic answer.


bla bla bla... it's about half... the average between the 2 figures.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Note that the geology-based Seventh Approximation does not attempt to predict volumes of conventional resources that will actually be discovered in a given assessment time frame."



Pfft... "...does not attempt to predict volumes of conventional resources" Now here's our prediction.

I call BS on whoever wrote that... they most certainly do.

I also call BS on your attempts here to make a simple concept more complex with irrelevancies. Not very nice to do in a thread aimed at young folks... but so be it.

ASPO & others are saying that they estimate about half the URR the USGS & others predict.

Anyway... enough of that in this thread.

I just posted they graph to quantify the argument.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.

Unread postby gnm » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 19:23:43

Hey kids - I'm just an average guy in an average place with 2 kids of my own and guess what - I've been studying this for 8 years and...

We're FUX0rED.....

Get yourselves out of the BS system that has been created to control you now. Do something real. I like WestTexas's Idea (from TOD) Economize Localize Produce....

Thats what I am trying...

-G
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 20:56:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')hey are not doing projections based on historical trends... which is obvious to say the least, since they predict a massive upswing in discovery of new oil.

They specifically say they DON'T predict any such thing. Why is this causing confusion?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')hey don't try & predict future trends? Ummm... yes they do...

I restate what the USGS says.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('USGS report says...', '"')Note that the geology-based Seventh Approximation does not attempt to predict volumes of conventional resources that will actually be discovered in a given assessment time frame."

DOES NOT ATTEMPT TO PREDICT.......so....the USGS says they aren't predicting and you say they are. Do you have some insider information here which wasn't included by the authors of the report?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')hey predict 2.6+ trillion barrels URR.

They don't call it URR, so perhaps you are using different terms? Here is what they call it, and the results: link

"World level summary of petroleum estimates for undiscovered conventional petroleum and reserve growth for oil, gas, and natural gas liquids (NGL)."

When you say URR, do you exactly mean "estimates for undiscovered conventional petroleum and reserve growth"? Or do you mean something else?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'P')fft... "...does not attempt to predict volumes of conventional resources" I call BS on whoever wrote that... they most certainly do.

Reference please?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I') also call BS on your attempts here to make a simple concept more complex with irrelevancies. Not very nice to do in a thread aimed at young folks... but so be it.
The USGS says you can't predict with their work. ASPO then does it. I think the children can figure out what is happening.

I've got some potential gold in the seawater near my dads house, can you estimate how much $$ I can deposit in my bank account from producing it next month please? :-D
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'I') just posted they graph to quantify the argument.
Cool. Got any reference to the wordage related to it? To use it in a classroom I need to reference it all properly.
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.

Unread postby Revi » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 21:02:45

Show them End of Suburbia, but edit it severely. I showed it to a bunch of high school kids, and they all said that they thought there were too many talking heads.

I would say show the first half hour or so.
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 29 Dec 2008, 22:26:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'S')how them End of Suburbia, but edit it severely. I showed it to a bunch of high school kids, and they all said that they thought there were too many talking heads.

I would say show the first half hour or so.


I've read some of Kunstlers work, I'm looking for specific scientific misrepresentation or misdirection rather than just random social commentary. The whole Kunstler, Ruppert, Heinberg triad doesn't hold up to any critical examination at all.

Campbell and Deffeyes used to do a little better, and as of late TOD has been a decent source of material, its varied enough to get the kids digging into all sorts of library corners finding the basis for some of the ideas, or finding another basis to dispute it.

Unless I can find some verbiage on this ASPO graph, it goes in the "too easy to refute" category for now.

On a professional level, I'm not much of a fan of showing some of these homemade quality videos, or any video's at all if I can avoid it to future college students. Just because Americans seem to want everything reduced to soundbites doesn't mean I have to perpetuate such nonsense.

Round up a couple non obvious scientific misrepresentations, put'im in groups to tackle them, tell them to prove it or dispute it, and the grades go to those who do either the best.

Its wildly entertaining.
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