Inflection Point

by **Stoic** » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 21:30:16

Does anybody know around what year we reached the rising point of inflection for the world's conventional crude production curve?

Thanks.

by **Licho** » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 21:35:27

First one was in the 70's. But we didnt hit the second one, production is still rising exponentionally (according to IEA data, last year 2004)

by **Licho** » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 21:41:41

This is made from official IEA data of oil supply:

by **Stoic** » Wed 06 Apr 2005, 00:47:33

Hmmm. So, the quantity produced is increasing, but the rate at which production increases each year is decreasing?

by **Licho** » Wed 06 Apr 2005, 05:08:26

No, it's still increasing! Second derivation is positive, we didnt hit inflection point :-)

As I said, production is still increasing exponentially..
Isn't it apparent from graph?

by **kerosene** » Wed 06 Apr 2005, 06:10:06

yep. It isn't like the produced oil gets stored somewhere (in huge amounts) so as consupmtion goes up exponentially the production needs to do the same. If not - that is when thungs start to change.

by **Stoic** » Wed 06 Apr 2005, 11:26:29

Oh wait, ya you're right, I see it now. Sorry, I wish the IEA would make it easier for us and graph the damn derivatives.

Doesn't that put us far away from peak oil though? That would be weird, because after seeing $2+ gas for over a month, I was beginning to think that we had already peaked. :lol:

Inflection Point

Inflection Point

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