[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]Once-booming oilsands face uncertain future
EDMONTON
The Canadian Press
Last updated at 9:36 AM on 26/12/08

... Ben Stacey, a pipefitter from Newfoundland, was making as much as $70 an hour in the oilsands when he was blindsided by sudden layoffs. ...

... The steady stream of workers that had been pouring into northern Alberta reversed this fall as nearly every major project was delayed, cancelled or scaled back. ...

... “There are a lot of people moving and relocating right now,” said Lovasi, 29. “Everyone’s just scattering, finding what they need to move forward.” ...

... Some foreign workers who can’t afford to go home are not eligible for government welfare.
“They end up turning to food banks and different community groups and charities — churches particularly — to help them out,” said the recruiter. “There’s a lot of those people who have fallen through the cracks.” ...

[pedalling_faster]

this is a welcome relief for the environment. in one of the classic oil-sands videos an Indian chief talks about the effect of oilsands pollution on their local environment.

might as well draw a hundred mile circle around the tar sands and declare it a wasteland. then just make sure that the crap in the holding ponds stays put.

[Sixstrings]

So where does this put Canada's self-styling as the next Saudi Arabia?

[Schneider]

Things will get interesting when the taxes income from Alberta oil sands dry up since it pay for the equalization system giving money to Ontario but mostly Quebec province.

I wonder where the feds will be able to get the more than 8 billions dollar "needed" to give the "welfare check" to Quebec next year ..

Seem Quebec province will have to live within his means for once, which is good (and it's coming from a Quebecer).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'S')o where does this put Canada's self-styling as the next Saudi Arabia?

[Tanada]

It occured to me today it might be in Canada's interest to start their own SPR and start importing 1 Mbbl/d of light sweet form OPEC to drive the price back up where their tax revenue from bitumen sands resumes. If everything is really as knife edge ballanced as so many on here claim they should be able to easily drive the price up by doing something along those lines.

[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t occured to me today it might be in Canada's interest to start their own SPR and start importing 1 Mbbl/d of light sweet form OPEC to drive the price back up where their tax revenue from bitumen sands resumes. If everything is really as knife edge ballanced as so many on here claim they should be able to easily drive the price up by doing something along those lines.

[Blacksmith]

Unfortunately you are thinking like Americans and not Canadians, (if you can even find an atypical Canadian). We don’t need a Strategic Petroleum Reserve and we have plenty in one form or the other to meet our domestic requirements, at least in Western Canada. In Eastern Canada they simply want it cheap at any cost, for example the National Energy Policy which is still remembered in the West and will one day lead to a fragmentation of this country.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]What's next: Oilsands

The collapse of oil prices has possibly set back Canadian production growth as much as five years.
By Matthew McClearn
From Canadian Business magazine, January 26, 2009

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (TSX: CNQ) will soon produce the first barrels of oil at Canada’s newest oilsands mining operation. The Calgary-based company’s Horizon Oil Sands Project, located 70 km northwest of Fort McMurray, consumed about five years’ strenuous labour by thousands of workers, and billions of investment dollars. Despite this achievement, COO Steve Laut found himself apologizing. “We are not on time, and we are not on budget,” he declared during a conference call this fall. “Horizon does not meet our criteria for success.”

... skip ...

To assess the damage sustained lower oil prices might do to the industry, Horizon’s price tag is a good place to begin. In 2005, CNRL thought the first phase would cost $4.9 billion. The company assured shareholders that cost overruns were something that happened to other oilsands companies, and that it had “achieved a high level of cost certainty.”

Nobody dares repeat that phrase these days.

... skip ...

With so many companies tripping over each other in northern Alberta’s remote wilderness, costs inevitably rose. Specialized heavy mining equipment, such as trucks and shovels, was in high demand. Despite a rapidly growing population, the region still had nowhere near enough skilled craftsmen and labourers. Developers had to scour the continent for contractors. Overtime became routine as projects fell behind schedule, and more work had to be done in extreme cold weather. Meanwhile, global prices of steel, concrete and other raw materials were also soaring.

These realities nullified earlier cost estimates. Horizon’s first phase wound up at $9.7 billion—nearly twice its original budget. It’s hardly the worst example, though. In September, Petro-Canada (TSX: PCA) and its partners, Teck Cominco (TSX: TCK.B) and UTS Energy (TSX: UTS), revealed that estimated costs for their Fort Hills mining project climbed by more than 50% in just 15 months, to about $21 billion. Strategy West president Bob Dunbar calculates that Suncor Energy’s Millennium project, completed in 2001, cost between $30,000 and $35,000 for each daily barrel of capacity. For Horizon, the figure is $80,000. And Fort Hills? Try $170,000. “We’ve really seen a huge run-up in costs,” Dunbar says.

... skip ...

The industry finally blinked when oil prices collapsed, forcing a sudden surge in project cancellations and deferrals in recent months. Suncor in October slashed capital spending plans for next year. The following month, CNRL cut its budget and delayed expansion at Horizon. Royal Dutch Shell postponed its Carmon Creek project. Petro-Canada and its partners put off the decision about whether to proceed with Fort Hills. And so on.

... snip ...