Read this article before you talk with them, at least.
Does anyone know the kid in the article? Was he on PO.com? That is truly tragic.
PeakOil is You
My Kids Want To hear it from you.
Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.
by RedStateGreen » Wed 24 Dec 2008, 23:44:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"
First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.
by uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Thu 25 Dec 2008, 00:02:25
Hey guys, (Stormbringers teens that is) ever seen lord of the rings? We got a whole challenge ahead of us and at the end we hope we will live as good as hobbits. Lots to learn and try, lots to explore and do. Have courage and stick together. Good luck!
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uNkNowN ElEmEnt - Expert
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.
by Aaron » Thu 25 Dec 2008, 12:50:15
The most compelling peak oil argument I have encountered.
Once you understand what this graph means, the rest flows naturally.
To avoid a "peak" in oil production the world must defy over 40 years of discovery trending downward.
Let's have a show of hands for everyone who thinks oil discovery will suddenly reverse it's massive declines, and soar ever higher.
\Your dog wants abiotic oil
Once you understand what this graph means, the rest flows naturally.
To avoid a "peak" in oil production the world must defy over 40 years of discovery trending downward.
Let's have a show of hands for everyone who thinks oil discovery will suddenly reverse it's massive declines, and soar ever higher.
\Your dog wants abiotic oil
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.
Hazel Henderson
Hazel Henderson
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Aaron - Resting in Peace
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.
by shortonsense » Thu 25 Dec 2008, 13:57:47
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')he most compelling peak oil argument I have encountered.
Once you understand what this graph means, the rest flows naturally.
Once you understand what this graph means, the rest flows naturally.
The USGS never provided the information necessary to make that graph. While disinformation from ASPO is hardly a surprise, it strikes me as disingenuous to assign the USGS name to something which they neither created, nor provided, in any such form.
Read it for yourself.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-060/ESpt2.html
The relevant phrase being:
"The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) World Petroleum Assessment 2000 provides estimates of the quantities of conventional oil, gas, and natural gas liquids outside the United States that have the potential to be added to reserves in the next 30 years (1995 to 2025)."
I highlighted the part which ASPO either ignored, or didn't read, in the creation of that phony graph.
Perhaps I should google up the definition of "potential" and write a letter to ASPO pointing out their obvious error of converting a "potential estimate" into an "actual volume"? Also, the USGS estimated undiscovered RESOURCES....the ASPO compares those to actual VOLUMES in that graph...which, call me crazy, but I'm betting are already in the "reserves" category....
The EIA did some sort of similar nonsense in its 2037 peak estimate which the Hirsch report in its Appendix appropriately dealt with the attribution of, but the ASPO can't be counted on to be so honest as Dr. Hirsch.
The good news being, obviously, that if industry isn't converting it from "potential" to "actual" at a rate which makes ASPO happy, it certainly isn't GOING anywhere, and will be there in the future when industry decides its profitable to convert it off in the future. Save it for our kids I always say.
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.
by shortonsense » Thu 25 Dec 2008, 14:00:07
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
Let's have a show of hands for everyone who thinks oil discovery will suddenly reverse it's massive declines, and soar ever higher.
')
Let's have a show of hands for everyone who thinks oil discovery will suddenly reverse it's massive declines, and soar ever higher.
![[smilie=eusa_naughty.gif]](https://udev.peakoil.com/forums/images/smilies/eusa_naughty.gif "eusa_naughty")
How about a show of hands for those who want honest information from ASPO?
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.
by Sixstrings » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 03:23:26
I don't have any kids, but I have plenty of opinions, so here's my advice.
Firstly, I don't think 12 and under should be bothered with these big issues. So here would be my advice for teenagers:
1. Forget your social life, school is more important than you can imagine. If you screw up high school and college, you really could make the rest of your life suck very bad. This is no joke.
2. If you do screw up, you've set yourself back but it's not the end of the world. You can always start over, it just gets harder and more depressing the older you get.
3. Watch your credit like a hawk. Don't fall into the trap of overspending. Money is power in this world, and that's why good credit (and education for that matter) are so important.
4. Understand that we may have a monetary system collapse / Depression unfolding. If not now, this is very well inevitable within your lifetime. Social Security may not be there for you in your older years -- that seems a very distant time for you, I know, but trust me what you do now affects how happy or miserable you'll be in those golden years.
Also, peak oil is going to force you to live a different kind of life than what you do now. There are also mutating viruses out there, and a lot of your favorite foods are probably very bad for you to eat. And then there's climate change.
The point is, a lot of bad stuff is going to go down in your lifetime. Deal with it. This is your cross to bare. Your challenge is to find happiness, stability, and success in spite of what life will throw at you.
5. Don't let this Doom stuff scare you, or depress you. This is really too deep for a teenager to dwell on too much. The main thing to remember is to use this knowledge to put your life into perspective. It's OK to enjoy cool gadgets, clothes, whatnot.. just never allow your self esteem to get wrapped up in these material things. You want to be strong enough to survive and prosper if and when you lose all those things.
5. Be careful with your future romantic relationships. Nothing has the power to screw your life up more than the wrong kind of partner. Peak Oil hath no fury like a woman scorned, so they say.
6. Don't do recreational drugs. It's OK to never even try them, trust me you're not missing *anything*. Also be very wary of pharmaceutical drugs -- do the research, know the risks of any pill you take. You may think drugs are cool now, but if you fry your brain you'll be anything but cool.
7. Don't smoke cigarettes. Once you're hooked, it is incredibly dificult to stop. And even when you stop, you'll miss it the rest of your life, so don't even start.
8. You don't think it is, but driving a car is statistically one of the most dangerous activities you will do as an adult. That's why it's important to be a cautious driver. That's why it is critical to not drink alcohol and drive. Car wrecks are very scary, and no fun at all. So drive carefully.
Oh, and Merry Christmas.
Firstly, I don't think 12 and under should be bothered with these big issues. So here would be my advice for teenagers:
1. Forget your social life, school is more important than you can imagine. If you screw up high school and college, you really could make the rest of your life suck very bad. This is no joke.
2. If you do screw up, you've set yourself back but it's not the end of the world. You can always start over, it just gets harder and more depressing the older you get.
3. Watch your credit like a hawk. Don't fall into the trap of overspending. Money is power in this world, and that's why good credit (and education for that matter) are so important.
4. Understand that we may have a monetary system collapse / Depression unfolding. If not now, this is very well inevitable within your lifetime. Social Security may not be there for you in your older years -- that seems a very distant time for you, I know, but trust me what you do now affects how happy or miserable you'll be in those golden years.
Also, peak oil is going to force you to live a different kind of life than what you do now. There are also mutating viruses out there, and a lot of your favorite foods are probably very bad for you to eat. And then there's climate change.
The point is, a lot of bad stuff is going to go down in your lifetime. Deal with it. This is your cross to bare. Your challenge is to find happiness, stability, and success in spite of what life will throw at you.
5. Don't let this Doom stuff scare you, or depress you. This is really too deep for a teenager to dwell on too much. The main thing to remember is to use this knowledge to put your life into perspective. It's OK to enjoy cool gadgets, clothes, whatnot.. just never allow your self esteem to get wrapped up in these material things. You want to be strong enough to survive and prosper if and when you lose all those things.
5. Be careful with your future romantic relationships. Nothing has the power to screw your life up more than the wrong kind of partner. Peak Oil hath no fury like a woman scorned, so they say.
6. Don't do recreational drugs. It's OK to never even try them, trust me you're not missing *anything*. Also be very wary of pharmaceutical drugs -- do the research, know the risks of any pill you take. You may think drugs are cool now, but if you fry your brain you'll be anything but cool.
7. Don't smoke cigarettes. Once you're hooked, it is incredibly dificult to stop. And even when you stop, you'll miss it the rest of your life, so don't even start.
8. You don't think it is, but driving a car is statistically one of the most dangerous activities you will do as an adult. That's why it's important to be a cautious driver. That's why it is critical to not drink alcohol and drive. Car wrecks are very scary, and no fun at all. So drive carefully.
Oh, and Merry Christmas.
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Sixstrings - Fusion
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Re: My Kids Want To hear it from you.
by Aaron » Fri 26 Dec 2008, 09:31:54
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps I should google up the definition of "potential" and write a letter to ASPO pointing out their obvious error of converting a "potential estimate" into an "actual volume"? Also, the USGS estimated undiscovered RESOURCES....the ASPO compares those to actual VOLUMES in that graph...which, call me crazy, but I'm betting are already in the "reserves" category....
Ahhh... your name makes sense suddenly.
Perhaps you should Google "potential".
Also Google "probability"
P5 = 5% probability of discovering that much new oil.
P95 = 95% probability
P50 = 50% (mean)
The USGS does indeed publish these numbers and has done so for decades. It's worth noting that if you examine the historic oil discovery data, this "averaging" formula accurately reflects actual discovery trends in gross numbers.
Unfortunately, part of the P5 estimate assumes economic viability of the considered probable resources. In other words, companies with sufficient economic incentive can always "look a little harder", and find more oil.
Which is the main point of disagreement of course.
Peak Oil contends that new discoveries will be constrained to physical limits because of depletion, regardless of economic incentive.
In any event, the graph above accurately reflects the USGS published numbers regarding probable reserves coming online in the near future.
None of that is necessary to understand the basic message however, despite attempts to obscure it.
Oil discoveries have been falling for decades regardless of new discovery technology or price incentives.
Why?
Simple... Depletion.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.
Hazel Henderson
Hazel Henderson
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Aaron - Resting in Peace
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