[AirlinePilot]

A nice prediction for cornucopians to be sure. The US economy wont remain in recession/depression unitl 2030 and thats the only way you have demand remain flat.

At some point in a few years out we manage some sort of attempt at a recovery and this will mean increased demand. Maybe not towards older predictions but its kind of silly to believe we can manage an alternatives "magic trick" which is what will be required to see demand remain flat.

This is just more evidence that there is little surety as to where we go with demand and supply. We are in uncharted waters and not a lot of traditional thinking is making sense.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A') nice prediction for cornucopians to be sure. The US economy wont remain in recession/depression unitl 2030 and thats the only way you have demand remain flat.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A') nice prediction for cornucopians to be sure. The US economy wont remain in recession/depression unitl 2030 and thats the only way you have demand remain flat.

At some point in a few years out we manage some sort of attempt at a recovery and this will mean increased demand. Maybe not towards older predictions but its kind of silly to believe we can manage an alternatives "magic trick" which is what will be required to see demand remain flat.

This is just more evidence that there is little surety as to where we go with demand and supply. We are in uncharted waters and not a lot of traditional thinking is making sense.

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A') nice prediction for cornucopians to be sure. The US economy wont remain in recession/depression unitl 2030 and thats the only way you have demand remain flat.

[JohnDenver]

Here's another data point in a similar vein...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Japan's new auto sales likely to fall below 5 mln units in 2009
TOKYO, Dec. 18 (Xinhua) -- Japan's new vehicle sales are likely to fall by 4.9 percent year-on-year to 4.86 million units in 2009,sinking below 5 million for the first time in 30 years, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said Thursday.

[AirlinePilot]

JD,

Im just not in the "demand cratering" camp yet. Give it time. Im still not buying that demand, global demand that is, has dropped very much at all. Yes its down, but the price collapse is only partially driven by this demand drop. I'm with rockdoc on the premise that its more about a speculative downward trend and has very little to do with actual demand numbers. That trend is very temporary and we'll know it soon enough.

[BigTex]

It's going to be sort of like the cartoon below, except it would read:

Midway through peak oil, humanity pulls out a bigger supply of fossil fuels.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Doesn't jibe too well with the theory of the demand cornucopians.

[TreebeardsUncle]

So will bio-fuels and electric sources subsitute for oil so that the effects of peak oil production will be very moderate? I was hoping that the effects of oil supply declining would be so great as to greatly reduce the number of folks driving cars(down to around 10% of the current number) and do in most of American suburbia.
g

[aahala2]

"U.S. oil consumption will be flat through 2030"

I tend to agree with the above.

However the timing or effect of recession, possible increases
in efficiency or ethanol, no one can consume more than there
is.

So if you believe the US will consume much more in 2030 than
now, then you must believe peak is several decades away, or
peakoil theory isn't true at all.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'J')D,Im still not buying that demand, global demand that is, has dropped very much at all. Yes its down, but the price collapse is only partially driven by this demand drop. I'm with rockdoc on the premise that its more about a speculative downward trend and has very little to do with actual demand numbers. That trend is very temporary and we'll know it soon enough.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aahala2', 'S')o if you believe the US will consume much more in 2030 than now, then you must believe peak is several decades away, or peakoil theory isn't true at all.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'A') nice prediction for cornucopians to be sure. The US economy wont remain in recession/depression unitl 2030 and thats the only way you have demand remain flat.

At some point in a few years out we manage some sort of attempt at a recovery and this will mean increased demand. Maybe not towards older predictions but its kind of silly to believe we can manage an alternatives "magic trick" which is what will be required to see demand remain flat.

This is just more evidence that there is little surety as to where we go with demand and supply. We are in uncharted waters and not a lot of traditional thinking is making sense.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'Y')ou can grow your economy and flatline/shrink your oil usage.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')sing less oil does not mean economic collapse. Since 1980, consumption is actually down in the Europe big four by 9.1%

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'I')'m not sure why you use the term "cornucopian" for the position that demand for oil will peak and decline, making peak oil manageable. Personally, I think "cornucopian" applies better to the peak oiler position -- i.e. that demand for oil has no limits, and will always increase.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'D')ecreased demand isn't the primary factor in the current suppression of price, deleveraging is.

[AirlinePilot]

Correlation? Maybe. Im not buying into that right now. A few million bbl/day on the global scale isnt commensurate with the price collapse we have seen. There is no getting around that logic. Something else is going on, be it deleveraging, deflation, manipulation, etc. Its probably a bit of all these, but its just not logical to keep pointing to demand being THE reason. Its just silly.

I agree its possible to grow economies without increasing consumption. I just dont believe we are going to attempt it, not for quite a while yet. There just isnt enough scalability in any replacement to crude at the moment. I doubt we change that anytime soon for it to become possible. There just isnt enough emphassis or leadership yet steering that in the right direction.

Just my opinion.

[cat]

Wait, am I missing something? Didn't they say that consumption would be flat, and isn't that different than demand? If oil production will be flat or in decline, as they seem to be saying in a round about sort of way, then wouldn't it follow that consumption of oil would be down or flat too, even if people want it? You can't use what you don't have.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', 'Y')ou can grow your economy and flatline/shrink your oil usage.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'u')sing less oil does not mean economic collapse. Since 1980, consumption is actually down in the Europe big four by 9.1%

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'C')orrelation? Maybe. Im not buying into that right now. A few million bbl/day on the global scale isnt commensurate with the price collapse we have seen. There is no getting around that logic.