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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 11:55:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Also, are you saying "technology" is more intelligent than the humans who invented it?


The weak link with computers is software. Anybody who has been in programming long enough will concede that the quality of almost all software is crap. There are as many theories on how to create good software and none of them ever seem to work.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 11:59:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')You can if you bend the rules, which is what GM gives us the potential to do.


No amount of genetic manipulation will allow infinite population growth on earth. No matter how much time it may buy us, it's just another band-aid that kicks the can down the road.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 12:39:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'D')on't get drawn into that discussion, its a defiinition trap. By definition you can't sustain a condition of overshoot. If you're sustaining your condition you arent in overshoot. Then the argument goes into catton and the environment and why nature never does this and allways does that and how technology is irrelevant.
Doh! It is a definition trap. And here I was, thinking about going through Catton's book and picking it apart.
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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 13:57:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', ' ')maybe it can, if used properly


Why is a population of 7 billion humans desirable?
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 14:49:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')You can if you bend the rules, which is what GM gives us the potential to do.


No amount of genetic manipulation will allow infinite population growth on earth. No matter how much time it may buy us, it's just another band-aid that kicks the can down the road.

And that is a strawman. The sides here often talk right past each other. No one is suggesting infinite population on earth or eternal growth. What theres disagreement about is largest sustaineable or desirable population or civilization is and how we get there; And what sustainable, desirable or civilzation is defined as. We can barely communicate here let alone come to an agreement.

For instance my opinion is that most of these discussions of biological overshoot and ecosystems collapse are largely irrelevant in the long term because I expect sometime over the next century or two that human civilization will develop strong AI. After that civilization isn't dependant on biology anymore. Whenever I make arguments I have to try to put my perspective in that of the majority here who believe that strong AI isn't inevitable, which frankly is a rather foreign viewpoint for me.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 16:44:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')I expect sometime over the next century or two that human civilization will develop strong AI. After that civilization isn't dependant on biology anymore. .


Cool! Humans will just upload their minds into computers and not be biological (or human, for that matter) anymore!

Now THAT is a realistic expectation!
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Dezakin » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 19:06:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', ' ')I expect sometime over the next century or two that human civilization will develop strong AI. After that civilization isn't dependant on biology anymore. .


Cool! Humans will just upload their minds into computers and not be biological (or human, for that matter) anymore!

Now THAT is a realistic expectation!

See, this is why we can barely have a conversation. I find the notion of human level AI not being developed as extremely unrealistic.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby outcast » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 20:48:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')You can if you bend the rules, which is what GM gives us the potential to do.


No amount of genetic manipulation will allow infinite population growth on earth. No matter how much time it may buy us, it's just another band-aid that kicks the can down the road.



Of course population growth cannot continue infinitely, but it can bump the carrying capacity so that it is more inline with our current population (and possibly what our population is expected to be when it peaks), without using destructive farming methods.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 21:59:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', ' ')but it can bump the carrying capacity so that it is more inline with our current population (and possibly what our population is expected to be when it peaks), without using destructive farming methods.


Evidence that "it" (GM?) can do this?

Oh there I go again, asking for some evidence! :lol:
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 22:00:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')See, this is why we can barely have a conversation. I find the notion of human level AI not being developed as extremely unrealistic.


You're absolutely right, we live in completely different realities.

That's why I generally don't try to have a conversation with you.

We both look like idiots to each other. :)
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 22:42:41

I wouldn't know what an "holistic consciousness" is, I'm afraid! 8O
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 00:46:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Of course population growth cannot continue infinitely, but it can bump the carrying capacity so that it is more inline with our current population (and possibly what our population is expected to be when it peaks), without using destructive farming methods.


I think the fundamental question that humanity has to ask itself is not "how can we pack more and more people on earth". It's how many humans is enough humans? I mean, are we shooting for quantity or quality? Why do we have to be smart enough to perform miracles to continually expand carrying capacity just to compensate for the fact that we can't collectively control our population size?
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Dezakin » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 02:24:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', '
')Of course population growth cannot continue infinitely, but it can bump the carrying capacity so that it is more inline with our current population (and possibly what our population is expected to be when it peaks), without using destructive farming methods.


I think the fundamental question that humanity has to ask itself is not "how can we pack more and more people on earth". It's how many humans is enough humans? I mean, are we shooting for quantity or quality? Why do we have to be smart enough to perform miracles to continually expand carrying capacity just to compensate for the fact that we can't collectively control our population size?

Mostly because life is a prisoner's delima on a large scale. It doesn't matter weather its yeast or AI gods tearing apart galaxies for every scrap of matter and energy. Life/civilization will grow untill it can't.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 02:39:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')Life/civilization will grow untill it can't.


Um, and then what do you think will happen? It will just level off and everything will be fine? I find that highly unlikely, but I know you are a technofix utopian , so there is no changing your viewpoint.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Dezakin » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 02:41:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')e both look like idiots to each other. :)

Perhaps; If I entertained the notion that technology today is largely static and that strong AI was for some reason impossible, I might conclude that civilization could expand several orders of magnitude at rather extreme existential risk. We have technology today that is demonstrably scalable that can provide nuclear power for millinea and then the challenge becomes guessing weather feeding 10 to 100 billion humans in an engineered ecosystem is feasable long term.

I dont think we have enough data to definatively say we do or don't, but we can say that such a world would have to have all the natural self regulating systems monitored and controlled by civilization; We'd have to monitor the entire world as a giant greenhouse. I certainly feel this is possible in theory but again, its hard for me to argue this. Such a scenario may be predicated on advances in technology and environmental science, and when I assume advances there I can't honesty imagine these areas will advance while computer science and all of its implications remain static.

So maybe if one assumes static technology we are nearing the peak of human civilization for environmental reasons.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby outcast » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 02:42:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', ' ')but it can bump the carrying capacity so that it is more inline with our current population (and possibly what our population is expected to be when it peaks), without using destructive farming methods.


Evidence that "it" (GM?) can do this?

Oh there I go again, asking for some evidence! :lol:


Ooops

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
I think the fundamental question that humanity has to ask itself is not "how can we pack more and more people on earth". It's how many humans is enough humans?


The question I attempted to answer is "how can we provide enough food for the people we have now without using too much in the way of pesticides and fertilizers?"
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Dezakin » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 02:46:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')Life/civilization will grow untill it can't.


Um, and then what do you think will happen? It will just level off and everything will be fine? I find that highly unlikely, but I know you are a technofix utopian , so there is no changing your viewpoint.

From my viewpoint, when civilization can't grow anymore its because most of the matter in the galaxy has been rendered into computational substrate and energy converters and the whole of it is governed by AI that may as well be gods. I cant imagine exactly how they'll govern themselves.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 10:46:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', ' ')Ooops


Not very many folks eat cotton, so I'm not really sure that's evidence GM crops can increase the carrying capacity of the land.

But thanks!
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby outcast » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 19:47:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', ' ')Ooops


Not very many folks eat cotton, so I'm not really sure that's evidence GM crops can increase the carrying capacity of the land.

But thanks!


That's not the point. The point is that it can increase yields, this was a convenient example to show it.
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Re: Moore's law comes to a halt?

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 18 Dec 2008, 20:13:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('outcast', ' ')The point is that it can increase yields


I'd like to see proof it can improve yields of food in a way which increases carrying capacity. There's more to carrying capacity than food, of course.

My point of view, as someone who has studied farming for over a decade, is that GM crops aren't necessary, and are a waste of time, money, energy, and attention. They are an inelegant solution to a problem, in my opinion.

May I suggest you read "The Botany of Desire" by Michael Pollan, if you are interested in this subject.
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