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Oil War? Not too plausible.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 05:42:20

Speaking of JD: Big Oil Projects Put in Jeopardy by Fall in Prices (NYT)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne reason projects are being shut down so fast is that costs throughout the industry, which had surged in recent years, are still elevated despite the drop in oil prices. Many companies are waiting for those costs to come down before deciding whether to go forward with new projects.

“The global market has been turned upside down since the summer,” the International Energy Agency, a leading energy forecaster, said in a recent report.


Which (among myriad other articles on this) directly contravenes a recent post of his that insisted that commodity deflation was making E&P profitable universally, contrary to what we've been saying.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 07:05:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'S')peaking of JD: Big Oil Projects Put in Jeopardy by Fall in Prices (NYT)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne reason projects are being shut down so fast is that costs throughout the industry, which had surged in recent years, are still elevated despite the drop in oil prices. Many companies are waiting for those costs to come down before deciding whether to go forward with new projects.

“The global market has been turned upside down since the summer,” the International Energy Agency, a leading energy forecaster, said in a recent report.


Which (among myriad other articles on this) directly contravenes a recent post of his that insisted that commodity deflation was making E&P profitable universally, contrary to what we've been saying.


Exxon May Lift Spending as Rivals Cut, Tillerson Says

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp., the world’s largest company, may raise spending on oil exploration and refineries by $5 billion next year as rival energy producers reduce budgets to cope with falling prices and a recession-driven drop in demand.

The Irving, Texas-based company expects to spend as much as $30 billion in 2009 to lease drilling rigs and expand fuel plants, which would be a 20 percent increase from this year, Chief Executive Officer Rex Tillerson said today during a meeting with reporters in Chicago. The budget may decline by $1 billion or $2 billion from the estimate if falling prices for steel and other materials lower project costs, he said.

“We don’t see a need to make any cuts at this point,” Tillerson said. “We don’t pay attention to the day-to-day price of oil because it’s somewhat unimportant to us.”


Petrobras to increase planned investments through 2012
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')ecember 08, 2008 (Brazil)

Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras as it is commonly known across the globe may increase investment and spending through 2012 from what it had originally planned. The state owned company had at first planned to spend US $8.6 billion in the aforesaid period. This was revealed by the CEO of the company Mr Jose Gabrielli while speaking to reporters.


Of course, many more articles will appear on this topic as costs continue to decline. Note that even your own article states that "Many companies are waiting for those costs to come down..."

BTW, I see you're fabricating fake quotes again. Care to provide the exact quote where I said "commodity deflation was making E&P profitable universally"?
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby JohnDenver » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 07:33:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'G')oing back to the early days of peak oil and this forum, the doomers have consistently pushed the idea that nations will go to war for oil.

This hasn't always gone well.


saying oil war is not too plausible, is like saying pro surfing is "not too plausible" - with the Triple Crown in Hawaii just starting up. (OK, not everybody listens to pro surfing.)

if Oil War is "not too plausible", please explain how the Iraq War is not an oil war.


The Iraq War is not an oil war because the US didn't obtain any oil as a result of waging the war. They haven't taken one barrel, and the Iraqis maintain full control over their oil. It's just that simple.

According to the EIA, the US has received about 1.2 billion barrels of oil from Iraq since the war began, and paid for all of it. In addition, the final cost of the war has been estimated at $3 trillion plus. That comes out to >$2500/barrel.

People like yourself believe in nonsensical concepts like "oil wars" where the attacked party maintains full ownership and control over the oil in question, and the aggressor ends up paying about 50 times the market price for oil it does obtain. Phew boy, that's some pirate raid. :roll:

Also, the "oil war" in Iraq isn't just starting. It's ending. The Americans voted in probably the most mellow, non-warmongering candidate conceivable to stop the war, pull US troops out, and wean the US off its foreign oil addiction. Hardly sounds like the warm up to a big military putsch for oil. You "oil war" people have been reading too many comic books.

My theory is the Americans (like most people in the world) aren't really that keen to fight for oil, and will find it easier and more congenial to simply car pool and ride the bus etc.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby eXpat » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 11:55:24

JohnDenver wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Iraq War is not an oil war because the US didn't obtain any oil as a result of waging the war.

Is not because the US didn´t try, is because something called sabotage and insurgency stopped an invading army of taking their natural resources.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hey haven't taken one barrel, and the Iraqis maintain full control over their oil. It's just that simple.

Bollocks, have a look at the Iraqi Oil law:
http://www.iraqoillaw.com/
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'i')n February, 2007, the proposed draft of a new law to structure Iraq’s oil industry was leaked, and it is now being considered by the Iraqi parliament. Several key features of the law would:
* Allow two-thirds of Iraq’s oil fields to be developed by private oil corporations. In contrast, the oil industry has been nationalized in every other major Middle Eastern producer for over 30 years.
* Place governing decisions over oil in a new body known as the Iraqi Federal Oil and Gas Council, which may include foreign oil companies;
* Open the door for foreign oil companies to lock up decades-long deals now, when the Iraqi government is at its weakest.

http://priceofoil.org/thepriceofoil/war ... i-oil-law/
This law is likely to be enacted next year:
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=184555
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby Nickel » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 12:06:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snik', 'I')f it is, we've done a damn poor job of it, especially since China swooped in and took some of the most lucrative oil contracts right out from under our noses after the Democrats in Congress nixed any American companies getting them.


Not to mention their deals with Venezuela right here in our own hemisphere.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby shortonsense » Wed 17 Dec 2008, 00:46:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')
My theory is the Americans (like most people in the world) aren't really that keen to fight for oil, and will find it easier and more congenial to simply car pool and ride the bus etc.


Oh kudo's for noticing the obvious. This entire "we'll fight for oil!!" routine some 5 years after this nonsense got started (PO mania)is just wildly irritating.

I remember when demand destruction could never save the world, and then at $4.00/gal it hit like a tank going through a trailer park. Strikes me that of COURSE Americans chose the obvious, stop buying SUV's ( cars in general ), start riding the bus, lets bicycle!, stopped taking random trips for no reason, etc etc.

As you've noted on your blog, electric cars have gone from ZERO to lightspeed faster than the Millenium Falcon, and the impossible fuel cell cars are now being leased out in southern California to the well heeled who can afford $600/month.

I'm more than a little pissed that oil prices dropped, if $4/gal is what it requires for silly Americans to change, then bring on the $4/gal and lets cure this peak oil nonsense already.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sat 20 Dec 2008, 02:02:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '.')..electric cars have gone from ZERO to lightspeed faster than the Millenium Falcon...
Not in this neighborhood.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Dec 2008, 11:42:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', '.')..electric cars have gone from ZERO to lightspeed faster than the Millenium Falcon...
Not in this neighborhood.


They certainly have around here. Several of the big installs ( PV's and electric cars for office complexes ) actually made the paper a year or so back.
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