[Quinny]

Seahorse - you've put into an eloquently written post my own experience thankyou. I'm in the UK and IMHO the system is FUBAR now. I only hope I'm wrong.

[Koyaanisqatsi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', '
')I think the sinking analogy is a little premature. We are more at the stage where, as the designer of the Titanic, you are well aware of the implications having just recieved the damage report, and looking on in wonder at the other passengers who are perhaps anxious but totally oblivious that there is only a couple hours left.

[strider3700]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
So you're saying that the banks are locked into just holding onto houses that are presumably for sale, but with no intention of ever selling? What do they expect to ultimately do with these things?

[idiom]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('strider3700', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')
So you're saying that the banks are locked into just holding onto houses that are presumably for sale, but with no intention of ever selling? What do they expect to ultimately do with these things?

[ReverseEngineer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'H')ow long before the shelves begin looking bare? How long before you have to travel 20 miles to find gasoline? How long before the prolonged blackouts? How long before those around us begin dying?

It took us what, about 2 years since we saw it coming and no one believed.

Now we still face the deniers, no we are not there yet. But we are close. Another 2 years? Are we halfway there? More?

International Shipping has stopped, just like the engines on the Titanic.

It is even possible to make it another 2 years?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the banks told the truth and wrote the value of these assets down or sold them for less than owed, the banks would effectively bankrupt themselves.

[Sixstrings]

seahorse wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')nfortunately, just like the third class on the sinking Titanic, we here are all locked down in the bowels of this sinking ship by the first class. All we can do is listen to the cold waters of deflation filling the floors below us trumpeting our demise, listen to Bernanke scream he needs more money to plug the holes, and listen to the footsteps of the rich running above deck for the safety of treasury lifeboats that pay negative yields

[seahorse]

Rockdoc,

It is because of the ignorance espoused in your post and about the current situation that I write the way I do. So, I will address some of your false beliefs, and I say beliefs, because they are not supported with any fact.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')eahorse, my legal friend....chill.

[seahorse]

SPG,

I agree that there will be some jobs and people that make a lot of money, bc as Kennedy said, there is opportunity in crisis. However, by definition, a crisis means the majority of people do not share in the opportunity. I don't necessarily think that's a good or bad thing, bc we all know that "life isn't fair" and in a capitalist system, which we still have a semblance of, some will fair well, others will fail.

Generally, I think health care will continue to do well. It is arguably a necessity and the gov't will continue to support it due to the majority of aging, and I would argue, increasing poort that will demand the gov't do something.

The law is very specialized. Lawyers generally either represent corporations or individuals, and within those categories, some lawyers will do well, others will not. I see many people who have problems but can't afford to do anything about it, so they walk away from the issue and take the hit. Bankruptcy lawyers are busy right now, but even then, they have problems getting paid, but on a whole, I think this financial crisis has caused a lot of legal work. When the dust settles, though, in a year or so, it will be interesting to see what legal opportunities are there.

Auctioneers are doing well, as well as mercenaries, bullet manufacturers, etc.

There will be investment opportunities brought about by the Obama team now wanting to transition our energy system to be green etc.

[virgincrude]

seahorse, like others here, I appreciate your post. Good writing, well put. Thanks.

For me, PO is often a little window into the US which is actually the world's canary in the mine shaft right now, in terms of the global systemic melt down. Posts like yours bring the reality of the situation to life, unfiltered by the mainstream media crap.

If you've been following Micki's posts on gold, you'll know just how right you are: this isn't actually a sub-prime crisis, nor even an economic crisis. It's fundamentally a gold crisis. The fiat money system is coming to an end.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cid_Yama', 'S')eahorse,

I think the sinking analogy is a little premature. We are more at the stage where, as the designer of the Titanic, you are well aware of the implications having just recieved the damage report, and looking on in wonder at the other passengers who are perhaps anxious but totally oblivious that there is only a couple hours left.

I laid in bed last night trying to pull it all together, the economy, the climate, the geopolitical situation and tried to come to a realistic estimate of when it all unravels.

Like the designer of the Titanic, what is the best guesstimate of how long she will stay afloat?

How long before the shelves begin looking bare? How long before you have to travel 20 miles to find gasoline? How long before the prolonged blackouts? How long before those around us begin dying?

It took us what, about 2 years since we saw it coming and no one believed.

Now we still face the deniers, no we are not there yet. But we are close. Another 2 years? Are we halfway there? More?

International Shipping has stopped, just like the engines on the Titanic.

It is even possible to make it another 2 years?

I become more convinced the answer is no. It all seems to be accelerating. Next winter then. Next winter before large numbers freeze in their homes. Before the hunger hits.

Perhaps the migrations will begin this summer among those with the foresight.

When will Pakistan act against India to try and take the water India has blocked with their dam? How long before the hunger forces them to action? Will this be where the first nukes will be used?

Already the states are running out of money for unemployment benefits.

We are approaching the loss of a million jobs per month. How will they provide shelter, feed their children?

Assistance for the poor has nearly dried up, they could just not meet demand.

When will the hungry revolt? What good will it do if there is nothing to give them?

I guess it will be 2009 that will be remembered. I find it harder and harder to believe we can stay afloat through 2010.

We can always hope... and pray.

[seahorse]

I was told to chill, but its hard to chill the cold hard facts. I accused the banks of Enron style banking, wherein they refuse to show homes at true market value, otherwise, it would end the charade and put the banks into bankruptcy.

As further proof of this charade, I offer the following Bloomberg article which confirms what is happening in my area is a systemic nationwide problem. Bloomberg reports that Fannie and Freddie are considering doing away with new appraisals to refinance a home.

Bloomberg

Wonder why? Maybe because the house prices have dropped?


Now, to say this is like past cycles overlooks the fact that Fannie and Freddie and their $5 trillion in potential liabilities went bankrupt and they were taken over by the US gov't, meaning, we the taxpayers are now on the hook for those liabilities as well. That has never happened in rockdoc's lifetime, because it has never happened.

When Bush, Bernanke and the like scream fire, it behooves us to listen. If you smell smoke, run. I smell smoke.

[mos6507]

I think it's too early to predict social unrest in the US. The reason being is that there is going to be a period of euphoria when Obama is sworn into office and the Bush regime is officially over, kind of like the euphoria after Saddam fell for the Iraqis. You saw a precursor to that on election day when Obama gave his victory speech to endless weeping masses. People psychologically blamed BushCo for everything that's gone wrong in their lives and will reward Obama with a juicy honeymoon period. So that really has to play out before the dispossessed start rioting.

[seahorse]

Despite what iceman Rockdoc believes to be true, this is the reason why bankruptcy filings are at an all time high - weekly job loss claims are at a 26 year high.

News


I'm not here to scare anyone. I want people to see the truth and get through the CNBC, or CNBS bullshit. People need real information to make good decisions. As Lincoln once said, he trust people with the facts, if you just give them the facts. I believe all problems are solvable, but people have to understand there are problems in order to solve them. Quit listening to the paid pide pipers and take responsibility for your finances, your government, and your future. There are opportunities out there if you don't get burned, so, move away from the fire to safety.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'I') think it's too early to predict social unrest in the US. The reason being is that there is going to be a period of euphoria when Obama is sworn into office and the Bush regime is officially over, kind of like the euphoria after Saddam fell for the Iraqis. You saw a precursor to that on election day when Obama gave his victory speech to endless weeping masses. People psychologically blamed BushCo for everything that's gone wrong in their lives and will reward Obama with a juicy honeymoon period. So that really has to play out before the dispossessed start rioting.

[Sixstrings]

the48thronin wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen tell me you sleep well "knowing those grocery shelves will always be full."

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '[')I ponder on the Timeline question myself almost nightly these days, but I am going to take a WAG here and say I do not think starvation will be systemic and comprehensive in the USA in 2009. I think it takes to 2010 or 2011 for this to occur here. It will happen sooner though in quite a few other countries.

Reason for my opinion on this runs to numerous things from warehousing and distribution to production, but I'm going to give a simplified version of my current thinking................

.............
Reverse Egnineer

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', '[')b]. When coffee was short during the Civil War, people turned to chicory.

I'm just as doomer as the next guy, but I want to remain rational and aware of history. And history teaches us Americans don't die en masse for lack of basic sustenance.

[Eli]

Great Job Seahorse.

You are right on, this is nothing like anything any of us have ever lived through.

The only thing similar is the Great Depression but even that is not a great comparison. With the rise of the unregulated shadow banking industry, credit was able to flow almost like magic, money for nothing.


In the past we were never facing a tsunami of bad debt like the 60 trillion dollar CDS market collapse.

[dunewalker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', ' ')
I'm just as doomer as the next guy, but I want to remain rational and aware of history. And history teaches us Americans don't die en masse for lack of basic sustenance.