Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL
Post a reply

The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 21:04:58

Yikes ! link

Fixed link. Please use the hyperlink function. Thank you. -FL
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7450
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby seldom_seen » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 21:25:32

If this really is a recession it could be a bad one. Most recessions last about 3 months. This one seems like it could drag on for 4 or 5 months?
seldom_seen
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2229
Joined: Tue 12 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 21:28:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')verview: Most everyone knows it’s a jungle out there for the U.S. economy, but how does this recession measure up to the last one we went through in 2001?
ChangeWave’s latest corporate quarterly survey shows the U.S. economy caught in the clutches of a recession far deeper and more painful than that of 2001 – with alarmingly low 4th Quarter sales projections, abysmal visibility, a deteriorating job market and a severe pullback in capital spending.
The survey was conducted November 20-December 1, 2008 and a total of 3,029 U.S. respondents participated.
Highlights:
4th Quarter 2008 Performance: A whopping one-in-two respondents (51%) project that their company sales will come in Below Plan for 4th Quarter 2008 – 16-pts worse than the previous quarter. Only 11% say their company sales will come in Above Plan – a 7-pt decrease.
As the following chart shows, these 4th Quarter (Dec ’08) corporate sales projections are the worst ever recorded in a ChangeWave survey dating back to the depths of the 2001 recession.

Really, please, it makes the site so much easier to use if we just add a brief excerpt of articles so that we can decide if we want to go there or not... someone is, I think, more likely to ignore your link unless you give them a taste of what is there.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3').1.5 Copyrighted material: All comments are the responsibility of the poster. Posters have a responsibly to obey copyright laws for their home nation and state. Please do not post entire copyrighted articles. If you wish to reference an article, provide a short, quoted excerpt with a link back to the original source.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3').1.13 Link baiting: prohibited. Posts created with the primary intent of directing traffic to a web link are prohibited. Such posts are subject to deletion. The behavior is regarded as a serious violation of the COC.

Code of Conduct
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4576
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 21:28:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'I')f this really is a recession it could be a bad one. Most recessions last about 3 months. This one seems like it could drag on for 4 or 5 [s]months[/s] decades?
:razz:
vision-master
 
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 21:57:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I')f this really is a recession it could be a bad one. Most recessions last about 3 months. This one seems like it could drag on for 4 or 5 [s]months[/s] decades?[/quote] :razz:

Maybe only one decade but that will be more than enough.

It irks me when all these analysts compare this collapse with the GD or some more recent recession. None of these prior events had a housing bubble created by government regulation or 57 trillion of credit default swaps purchased against risk not owned by the bettor or thirty years of credit card abuse and cheap oil. No one has a clue how deep this will go as no one has ever seen this set of conditions before.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 14897
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 22:06:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vtsnowedin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'I')f this really is a recession it could be a bad one. Most recessions last about 3 months. This one seems like it could drag on for 4 or 5 [s]months[/s] decades?[/quote] :razz:
Maybe only one decade but that will be more than enough.
It irks me when all these analyst compare this collapse with the GD or some more recent recession. None of these prior events had a housing bubble created by government regulation or 57 trillion of credit default swaps purchased against risk not owned by the bettor or thirty years of credit card abuse and cheap oil. No one has a clue how deep this will go as no one has ever seen this set of conditions before.

No doubt. These are uncharted waters with nothing to compare to. This will be worse than the GD.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7450
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby biofuel13 » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 22:14:10

Very timely read for me. My wife is in the next room working on the sales quotas that the company we work for delivered to her today. She is a sales manager and is responsible for splitting up the quotas between territories and sales reps. She just got the 2009 quotas today and when we opened the document both of our jaws hit the floor.
Not one quarter this year did the sales force in our company meet the sales metrics set out. Actually her team only hit one month out of 12. Naturally we (I work on the same sales floor in a different department) expected to at least see stagnant quotas for 09.
The numbers she was given set the quotas even higher than last year. HIGHER!!
No one who maintains sanity would set higher sales goals for 09 than 08. Even the most mainstream economists are now calling for one of the deepest recessions ever.

It is now crystal clear to me that the executives of the company are both A) Insane and B) obviously trying to run the company into the ground.
Why else would they be setting sales expectations higher this year?


Edit: By the way the company is not some mom and pop shop, we work for a very high ranking Fortune 500 company.
Last edited by biofuel13 on Tue 09 Dec 2008, 22:20:40, edited 1 time in total.
"With man gone will there be hope for gorilla? With gorilla gone will there be hope for man?" --Ishmael by D. Quinn
User avatar
biofuel13
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 606
Joined: Wed 07 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Chaska, MN
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 22:19:23

America Has No Means to Recover from a Depression

http://www.infowars.com/?p=6422
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7450
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby Armageddon » Tue 09 Dec 2008, 22:58:48

Sure looks like a deflationary depression to me. Hard to imagine considering the amount of money they are printing.
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7450
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby blukatzen » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 00:43:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('biofuel13', 'T')he numbers she was given set the quotas even higher than last year. HIGHER!!
No one who maintains sanity would set higher sales goals for 09 than 08. Even the most mainstream economists are now calling for one of the deepest recessions ever.
It is now crystal clear to me that the executives of the company are both A) Insane and B) obviously trying to run the company into the ground. Why else would they be setting sales expectations higher this year?

Because they are short-sighted, and are trying to make up this coming year for what they didn't make last year, and probably what they felt they should have made way back to '07! The company's books say one thing, (make profit NOW) and the reality of the greater situation we live with says another thing.(you will be lucky to keep the doors open with a skeleton staff.)

I've got the same issues with the company that I work for, so there's a lot of us in the same boat. That's just the way things are, thank the Gods my owner knows about PeakOil and doesn't think these points are nuts. In fact, I just emailed him the link that Armageddon posted at the beginning of the thread! (Thanks Armageddon!)

Someone brave who is a good succinct speaker should be elected at your firm, along with the CFO and head accountants, to present this situation to the owners. That's the only way you can turn this around, for starters.
:( Good luck!

Blu
User avatar
blukatzen
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 689
Joined: Mon 11 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Chicago
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby Snowrunner » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 01:04:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('biofuel13', 'I')t is now crystal clear to me that the executives of the company are both A) Insane and B) obviously trying to run the company into the ground. Why else would they be setting sales expectations higher this year?

Because they need the sales and by setting the goal higher they try to "motivate" the sales people.

My guess anyway.
User avatar
Snowrunner
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 795
Joined: Wed 24 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Screwed
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 02:38:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'S')ure looks like a deflationary depression to me. Hard to imagine considering the amount of money they are printing.
How so? If the majority of it ends up paid back, either via selling off the assets of the institution they loaned to, or getting paid back, the only inflationary pressure is from the difference in interest rates on the loans provided the companies use it to do more than just cover their balance sheets, what they can't recoup if an institution fails, and the amount they just give away.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
User avatar
yesplease
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3765
Joined: Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 04:03:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'S')ure looks like a deflationary depression to me. Hard to imagine considering the amount of money they are printing.
How so? If the majority of it ends up paid back, either via selling off the assets of the institution they loaned to, or getting paid back, the only inflationary pressure is from the difference in interest rates on the loans provided the companies use it to do more than just cover their balance sheets, what they can't recoup if an institution fails, and the amount they just give away.

Selling it off to WHO? Who are you going to sell off overpriced McMansions to? Who are you going to sell off failing companies to? If Toyota was Flush, why wouldn't they just buy GM for pennies on the dollar? Because Toyota is losing money ALSO, just not so fast as GM. You aren't buying assets here, you are buying further liabilities. The whole idea the Goobermint will recoup losses here at some later date by reselling what they are buying now is ludicrous. All they are doing is keeping the institutions that made the loans solvent while making the US Goobermint ever more insolvent. Its absurd.

Reverse Engineer
User avatar
ReverseEngineer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3352
Joined: Wed 16 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby yesplease » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 08:04:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'S')elling it off to WHO? Who are you going to sell off overpriced McMansions to? Who are you going to sell off failing companies to?
Other companies interested in their assets. There was someone to acquire Merrill Lynch, BofA. Barclays was there to buy up LB at a bargain basement price. Etc...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'I')f Toyota was Flush, why wouldn't they just buy GM for pennies on the dollar?
There are a few likely reasons. For one, if Toyota bought out GM they would be the largest automaker in the U.S. and the world hands down. Antitrust law would have a thing or two to say about that. They also may not be able to buy GM for pennies on the dollar unless GM actually goes bankrupt. If GM still has a potential lifeline w/ the federal government they probably won't allow themselves to be bought at bargain basement prices. Lastly, Toyota, and others, are probably afraid of backlash similar to the anti-import stuff of the 80s, which resulted in tariffs and hurt market share. They'll take what they can get but they've already felt first hand what happens if they outperform domestics too much.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'B')ecause Toyota is losing money ALSO, just not so fast as GM.
That is not correct. Toyota, while hurting like everyone else, compared to previous quarters is still profitable. Unlike the domestic automakers, who risk bankruptcy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'Y')ou aren't buying assets here, you are buying further liabilities. The whole idea the Goobermint will recoup losses here at some later date by reselling what they are buying now is ludicrous.
This is incorrect as well. While assets may decrease in price during a deflationary period, they still have value. A business may have liabilities associated w/ assets, which would reduce the value of the business, and when the liabilities become too great it's seized and liquidated to pay for it's liabilities, but that doesn't mean it has nothing but liabilities. The government will lose however much they lose based on the unfavorable interest on loans, bankruptcies of companies who don't have enough capital to cover said loans, and flat out give-aways, but that still doesn't mean we'll see in trillions in loses. Only time will tell in that aspect.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
User avatar
yesplease
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3765
Joined: Tue 03 Oct 2006, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 08:46:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'O')nly time will tell in that aspect.


Since only time will tell here, let us make a bet on time. I bet you $100 Toyota is insolvent and looking for a handout from the Jap Goobermint inside of one year. Take the bet?

Reverse Engineer
User avatar
ReverseEngineer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3352
Joined: Wed 16 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby Armageddon » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 11:42:59

The slump in US clothing sales since the summer has led to a precipitous drop in the number of overseas factories shipping to the US, import documents show.
Panjiva, a firm that analyses information drawn from shipping manifests filed with US Customs, said the number of global suppliers actively serving the US market fell from 22,099 in July to just 6,262 in October, a decline of more than 70 per cent.

Webmaster's Commentary:
70%! Ouch!


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/30c89a2e-c620-1 ... Fhome%2Fus
User avatar
Armageddon
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7450
Joined: Wed 13 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: St.Louis, Mo
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby Spanktron9 » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 16:37:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('biofuel13', ' ') The numbers she was given set the quotas even higher than last year. HIGHER!!
No one who maintains sanity would set higher sales goals for 09 than 08. Even the most mainstream economists are now calling for one of the deepest recessions ever.

It is now crystal clear to me that the executives of the company are both A) Insane and B) obviously trying to run the company into the ground.



A good friend works for a Toyota dealer in WA. His manager has been attending NADA (Dealer association) training for months. Watching the attendence drop off as dealers failed, the trainer pronounced last month that "Starting this spring the auto industry will rebound! and not just back to 2007 levels, we will also sell the 30% growth that we didn't get in 2008!"

The manager asked, "And this is based on?"

To which was replied, "Well, because people can't just keep driving the cars they have, they need NEW ones!"


Riiiiggghhhhtt.
Who are you going to turn to when all the crazy Peak-oil doomers end up being right?
User avatar
Spanktron9
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 243
Joined: Tue 03 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Terrified beyond the capacity for rational thought
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 16:53:04

Did anyone look at the data from that website?

It only goes back to 2001!

They are comparing this recession to the 2001 recession.

Anyone with half a brain knows that this recession will be worse than the 2001 recession so this isn't news.
"www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse."
Tyler_JC
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5438
Joined: Sat 25 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Boston, MA
Top

Re: The U.S. Economy in Rapidly Accelerating Freefall

Unread postby octopus » Wed 10 Dec 2008, 18:35:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('biofuel13', '
') Why else would they be setting sales expectations higher this year?


Edit: By the way the company is not some mom and pop shop, we work for a very high ranking Fortune 500 company.


Because the sales force is going to be managed out of job. Why lay folks off when you can fire them for failure to perform...
User avatar
octopus
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 8
Joined: Mon 09 Jul 2007, 03:00:00
Top
Next
Post a reply

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests