by ohanian » Sun 03 Apr 2005, 07:59:34
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Casandras who predict that the world will run out of energy simply don't get it. Yes, we will eventually see oil production peak and then begin to fall. But it will not be a calamitous over the waterfalls type of event. It will simply be a gradual lessening of production.
It will simply be a gradual lessening of production. correctWhat he does not tell you is that the share market
will not gradually crash. As oil production gradually lessen, the price of oil will shoot up like a rocket and this will cause the share market to enter a recession as profit results drop like a rock due to high energy cost.
John Mauldin, "registered financial advisor," also extols the virtues of ethanol and tar sands:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the future instead of buying oil from OPEC we will grow it in Kansas and mine it in Canada. $100 oil will force market solutions for other energy sources and whole new industries and technologies.
$100 oil will force market forces to come up with other energy sources which would cost $101 per equivalent barrel of oil. Yes, it will NOT be cheap oil substitute.
If other energy sources really cheap then we would be using them today.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Natural gas will become the preeminent fuel of the 21st century. Moving natural gas requires liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, special ships, regasification terminals, and lots of pipelines for distribution. As one energy executive put it, 'Supply is not the issue; it is the delivery of gas to the market.' Before this transition occurs, a world-wide infrastructure for natural gas, such as that now enjoyed by oil, must emerge."