[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'L')ess than 14 hours before the grid goes down & the zombie hordes arrive!
Don't quit your day job Matt.

[Narz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'L')ess than 14 hours before the grid goes down & the zombie hordes arrive!
Don't quit your day job Matt.

[shortonoil]

Patience said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')aybe I'm just dense, but I see the current economic problems as Peak Credit, with PO and Peak resources following behind it with a very big club.
Oil prices below cost won't last long, or the whole works will come to a SCREECHING halt. I don't know anyone in business to lose money. What I think I'm seeing is the results of market and money manipulations, along with Peak Debt.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Patience', 'M')aybe I'm just dense, but I see the current economic problems as Peak Credit, with PO and Peak resources following behind it with a very big club.
Oil prices below cost won't last long, or the whole works will come to a SCREECHING halt. I don't know anyone in business to lose money. What I think I'm seeing is the results of market and money manipulations, along with Peak Debt.

[patience]

In my mind, the $64 Trillion question is not will the US govt print to fight deflation, but CAN they print FAST enough to effectively counter the deflation? I have no sense of scale of the situation. And there are many other countries with a similiar problem. Too many variables for me to guess at an outcome here. Conceivably any single currency could go up or down relative to any other, and relative to commodities. Therefore, there is no sane basis for me to figure out a way to hedge against what's coming.

Dramatic economic swings beget huge opportunities to profit-or lose everything. Not being a gambler at heart, I'd be deleriously happy to come out this with anything like a whole skin. This would be an ironclad case for buying PM's, if I did not see a fine chanced of govt grabs again, as in the 30's.

The best I can come up with is to buy goods and commodities that are useful to me, but 100%, lest I have no coin of the realm to pay taxes, or buy anything. I'm in cash just now, and have been for a while. Where to from here?

This whole situation is an oncoming train wreck of historic proportions. Come to think of it, this question is worth its' own thread.

[Cloud9]

Printing money is not a problem for the Federal Government. It is simply a matter of moving the cursor a few zeros to the right and hitting the print button.

Most of the money in circulation is virtual, followed by bonds and checks and then finally followed by printed currency.

The game will be up when people refuse to accept a government check.

[graham]

Time to abolish private banks then?

[Cid_Yama]

Naked short selling and float and reserve plays are causing a record 'failures to deliver' in the US Treasuries markets. Some of this may be a 'kiting' scheme in which the sellers are playing an aribtrage against the slight fees and penalties versus returns on price distortions and extremes in volatility.

Or it might be a case of selling and using the same thing so many times as collateral that you don't really know what is your actual condition, solvent or insolvent. We can think of several (roughly nine) derivative and instrument laden banks that are utterly insolvent if forced to deliver their net obligations.

The Fed cannot even regulate its own products among its own dealer circles. What could possibly possess anyone to believe that they can do this with any other product in a larger, less exclusive market?

Who are the responsible parties? Let's have a list of the prime offenders of this market. We might *not* be surprised at who is failing to deliver what they sell. It might be an indication that they are in trouble. Oops, perhaps that is why we can't have it. We suspect the Fed is turning a 'blind eye' to this activity.

And do not be surprised when other things that you think that you are buying or think you own fail to show up.

There are some who see an approaching 'fail to deliver' spike at the COMEX and they may be right. There were some who believed that LTCM was short 400 tons of gold at the time of its failure, and that several central banks stepped in to depress price and increase supply to alleviate the potential shock on counterparties.

Replay in progress? It could get interesting if it is.
link

[shortonoil]

sjn said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') agree with everything you just wrote. The only thing we ever really differed on is whether the unbacked money printing route would be taken. I always felt it was inevitable.

[Cid_Yama]

Seems to me the bottom is going to drop out of the USD. It has to.

Fed is buying Treasuries so the auctions won't fail. Unrevealed parties are selling Treasuries they don't own. Treasury is buying GSE debt with money that doesn't exist.

It's like constantly moving money from one pocket to the other, while pretending that money going into one pocket is "income", the money coming out of the other though not being counted as debt.

Taken to it's ultimate conclusion it means default. With the amount of debt we need to roll over in the coming months, The US just won't be able to do it.

We are just presenting an illusion of still being in business when we are actually insolvent.

We've reached the end game. It's all over but the tears.

[shortonoil]

Cid_Yama said:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e've reached the end game. It's all over but the tears.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')The world mostly uses a debt based monetary system. Money comes into existence when a debt is assumed. That means to create the money to pay the interest on existing debt, new debt must be constantly assumed. With the present credit crunch there is not now enough new debt coming into existence in the US to cover the interest due on its $54 trillion in government and corporate bonds.

The FED can compensate by "printing" money. That is creating money that is not secured by debt. This will soon produce a "bond dislocation", where bond buyers refuse to purchase the Treasury's products because they know that the money it is supposed to represent is essentially counterfeit.

This week the FED announced that they would be buying GSE debt. Since the GSE are owned by the government, the government is buying its own debt. They are printing. This is direct evidence of "manipulation".

The shadow banking system has been intervening in the markets for some time. Recently we have seen them in commodities; oil does not go from $147 to $45 in four months; short of some earth changing event. Of course some people are gullible enough to believe that a $13.5 trillion economy can re-oriented in 120 days.

The recent manipulations of the CB and its dealer banks has put the economy into a chaotic state. Perhaps they feel that it is possible to control this situation, but experience with any chaotic state shows that is a big "if"!

Even "if" the credit crisis can be resolved it will take growth to put the system back together again. The damage to this point has been gigantic. It is doubtful that Peak Oil will allow that to happen!

[RedStateGreen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'L')ess than 14 hours before the grid goes down & the zombie hordes arrive!
Don't quit your day job Matt.

[CarlosFerreira]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '
')The world mostly uses a debt based monetary system. Money comes into existence when a debt is assumed. That means to create the money to pay the interest on existing debt, new debt must be constantly assumed. With the present credit crunch there is not now enough new debt coming into existence in the US to cover the interest due on its $54 trillion in government and corporate bonds.

The FED can compensate by "printing" money. That is creating money that is not secured by debt. This will soon produce a "bond dislocation", where bond buyers refuse to purchase the Treasury's products because they know that the money it is supposed to represent is essentially counterfeit.

This week the FED announced that they would be buying GSE debt. Since the GSE are owned by the government, the government is buying its own debt. They are printing. This is direct evidence of "manipulation".

The shadow banking system has been intervening in the markets for some time. Recently we have seen them in commodities; oil does not go from $147 to $45 in four months; short of some earth changing event. Of course some people are gullible enough to believe that a $13.5 trillion economy can re-oriented in 120 days.

The recent manipulations of the CB and its dealer banks has put the economy into a chaotic state. Perhaps they feel that it is possible to control this situation, but experience with any chaotic state shows that is a big "if"!

Even "if" the credit crisis can be resolved it will take growth to put the system back together again. The damage to this point has been gigantic. It is doubtful that Peak Oil will allow that to happen!

[ki11ercane]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'M')aybe I'm just dense, but I see the current economic problems as Peak Credit, with PO and Peak resources following behind it with a very big club.

Oil prices below cost won't last long, or the whole works will come to a SCREECHING halt. I don't know anyone in business to lose money. What I think I'm seeing is the results of market and money manipulations, along with Peak Debt.

Novus can you help me understand how this is PO related?

On this thread, there is a debate about this:RE: $41 and falling

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Are there really any "small" oil companies left to be bought up? Really?

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'L')ess than 14 hours before the grid goes down & the zombie hordes arrive! Don't quit your day job Matt.