[Sixstrings]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')oday's employment report, showing that employers cut 533,000 jobs in November, 320,000 in October, and 403,000 in September -- for a total of over 1.2 million over the last three months -- begs the question of whether the meltdown we're experiencing should be called a Depression.

We are falling off a cliff. To put these numbers into some perspective, the November losses alone are the worst in 34 years. A significant percentage of Americans are now jobless or underemployed -- far higher than the official rate of 6.7 percent. Simply in order to keep up with population growth, employment needs to increase by 125,000 jobs per month...

...When FDR took office in 1933, one out of four American workers was jobless. We're not there yet, but we're trending in that direction.

[Leanan]

Robert Reich has been warning about the coming Depression for at least a year.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow we have a mess on our hands. Bernanke has the only pooper-scooper in town, but it is too small for the job.

[Novus]

Remember this is just the initial estimate loss. The real loss is likely even worse. In September the initial estimate was just 150k loss. This was later revised to be over 400k. After the revision November will likely surpass the 600k worst month on record which go back to 1939. December is not looking any better as the previous month's gloom snowballs into the next month. By this time next month we can make it official and call it a depression.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

IN 1933 US population was 125,578,763 so 1 in 4 unemployed meant that 31,394,690 were without means.

US population today is now 303,824,640 so 1 in 4 would mean 75,956,160. Thats 76 million people...could a country handle having that many out of work and still function in any way, shape or form?

would not a tax revolt or chaos descend long before that? say around 42 million?

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'R')emember this is just the initial estimate loss. The real loss is likely even worse. In September the initial estimate was just 150k loss. This was later revised to be over 400k. After the revision November will likely surpass the 600k worst month on record which go back to 1939. December is not looking any better as the previous month's gloom snowballs into the next month. By this time next month we can make it official and call it a depression.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I')N 1933 US population was 125,578,763 so 1 in 4 unemployed meant that 31,394,690 were without means.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow...I suppose we could absorb a fairly high level of unemployment if we returned to the single-earner family. (It doesn't have to be the woman who stays home with the kids.)

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n economics, a depression is a sustained, long downturn in one or more economies. It is more severe than a recession, which is seen as a normal downturn in the business cycle.

Considered a rare but extreme form of recession, a depression is characterized by abnormal increases in unemployment, restriction of credit, shrinking output and investment, numerous bankruptcies, reduced amounts of trade and commerce, as well as highly volatile relative currency value fluctuations, mostly devaluations. Price deflation or hyperinflation are also common elements of a depression.
....

Definition

There is no widely agreed definition for a depression, even though some have been proposed. In the United States the National Bureau of Economic Research determines contractions and expansions in the business cycle, but does not declare depressions.[1]

A proposed definition for depression is a sustained recessionary period in which the population is forced to dispose of tangible assets to fund every day living, as was seen in the US and in Germany in the 1930s.


Characteristics

Generally, periods labeled depressions are marked by a substantial and sustained shortfall of the ability to purchase goods relative to the amount that could be produced using current resources and technology (potential output).[2]

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', ' ')the only way that is going to happen is if government claws back taxes and there is no way in hell they are going to do that.

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne thing we might get is a European-style VAT. It's basically a tax on consumption,

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', ' ')this is probably a good way to go for the future, though it flies in the face of Keynesian economics, goes the exact opposite direction doesn't it? and if might be a lot harder to float an economy on by penalizing the one thing they want more of ...consumption.

[RdSnt]

I don't believe we should compare directly between the dirty 30's and now.
Then, industry was much broader, more diverse and each company was much smaller. This lent a flexibility to the industrial system, however labour mobility was much more restricted.

We are in a much more dangerous situation. Industry, such as it is now in North America, is much more specialized and concentrated in fewer, large companies. I would suggest that a much smaller percentage of job losses will have larger influence on the general economy.

In the 30's the rural population was larger than the city, the converse is true now.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', ' ')this is probably a good way to go for the future, though it flies in the face of Keynesian economics, goes the exact opposite direction doesn't it? and if might be a lot harder to float an economy on by penalizing the one thing they want more of ...consumption.

[r101958]

When figuring unemployment numbers only those people of age should be considered.

[Heineken]

Any happy talk about the economy stabilizing is worse than useless. We've hardly begun. To determine where we are, merely ask this question: have house prices declined to a value that is payable by entry-level home buyers and loanable by new-era lenders? Everything else revolves around housing. Most people are in denial and determined to just keep on going in their homes. The lost equity is real, however, and has hardly begun to work its way through the economy. Even for well-off people, the drop in the stock market plus the drop in home equity has been disastrous, although it is still possible for people to be in denial about it: the stock market will go back up, home prices will recover. Instead, the stock market will go down further, and so will house prices.

Another direct way of appreciating the severity of the decline is the fall in oil prices, which is truly incredible and apparently still not over.

Beware "the dollar trap": once the value of the dollar starts to plunge, people will become desperate to convert into something else, but their 401ks often do not allow this, and they will be "trapped" in dollars. That's when a gold rush might happen.

But the gold thing is highly speculative. I note continued complete correlation between the Dow and gold and gold stocks. I expect really bad stock market action after the new year and especially after Obama's inauguration, when the market has absolutely nothing left in the way of good news to anticipate. I anticipate the Dow testing at least the 5000 level at that point.

We could still get very bad action before the end of the year, though, due to tax loss selling and other technical phenomena in the market. But the tone should get worse after the beginning of the year.

I think it reasonable to expect the term "depression" to apply to the coming era.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'A')ny happy talk about the economy stabilizing is worse than useless. We've hardly begun.

[vision-master]

House values will drop at least another 20% before bottom is hit.

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', 'H')ouse values will drop at least another 20% before bottom is hit.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '
')
Your use of the word "seem" is very apt I think. Even if a pol did get it, they cannot come out with a consumption reduction policy across the board.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '
')
Your use of the word "seem" is very apt I think. Even if a pol did get it, they cannot come out with a consumption reduction policy across the board.