[jupiter422]

I can already spot evidence of peak oil effects in day to day life ,but i'm curious about when do you believe the drastic effects will approximately begin?

[Jack]

Welcome to Peak Oil, jupiter422!

It depends on what you mean by drastic effects. Does the degradation of General Motor's credit rating to a point just above junk bond status count? Do the airlines, in their dance macabre with bankruptcy, count? If so, we're there already.

Here's one projection:

[Michael_Allison]

It looks like GM's gonna crash to the tune of $300B.

That's going to have an enormous impact on our economy, for sure.

I don't think the federal gov't can afford to bail them out like they have with the airlines in the past. But, then again, Bush isn't afraid of a little debt now is he?

It won't be pretty, in any case.

[deconstructionist]

i'd like to see the notes referenced in that die-off chart. i think that timeline looks fairly relistic. things will get gradually worse as far as economy and services probably for the next 20 years, and then the bottom will either drop out or something miraculous will happen and we'll continue our march towrds the domination of the natural world... if you have a retirement plan, don't be afraid to cash out early when things start to go haywire...

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deconstructionist', 'i')'d like to see the notes referenced in that die-off chart. i think that timeline looks fairly relistic. things will get gradually worse as far as economy and services probably for the next 20 years, and then the bottom will either drop out or something miraculous will happen and we'll continue our march towrds the domination of the natural world... if you have a retirement plan, don't be afraid to cash out early when things start to go haywire...

[deconstructionist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deconstructionist', 'i')'d like to see the notes referenced in that die-off chart.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
http://dieoff.org

[sampo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deconstructionist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('deconstructionist', 'i')'d like to see the notes referenced in that die-off chart.

[khebab]

The olduvai graph is very PO hardcore, I was just wondering what is real data and what is prediction? from the article, it seems that the figures have been made in 1999. Is the "slide" in boe/c/year predicted and starting in 1999 on the graph has been actually observed?

[Antimatter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'T')he olduvai graph is very PO hardcore, I was just wondering what is real data and what is prediction? from the article, it seems that the figures have been made in 1999. Is the "slide" in boe/c/year predicted and starting in 1999 on the graph has been actually observed?

[deconstructionist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sampo', '
')the full article is at http://dieoff.org/page224.htm

you're welcome.

[aahala]

On some sites I've seen the chart, the "slide" period
2001-2011, is supposedly to be like 1929-1939.

Things better start crackin', we're nearly half way thru the slide.

[gego]

Things seem to continue like they were, from day to day, until something really dramatic happens. The supply of oil will continue unless there is a dramatic interruption, and tomorrow will seem just a little worse than today in the early stages of the decline side of the curve.

If Richard Duncan is correct, then a dramatic event will happen, and that dramatic event will be a failure of the electric system. Until that happens, the problems will be within the understanding of past. Should the electric system fail permanently, then overnight, there will be a disconnect with the past. The realization will be slow, but within months, the great struggle for survival will be on, and life will suddenly be different that anyone alive can understand fully.

The days after the failure of electrical energy will for the survivors be a tale to tell. This will be when we realize we are on the Titanic and the lifeboats are limited in number. Of course the power elite will use the force of government to escort themselves to their seats. Those who are most dependent upon the failed system will be the first to go, but in the long run the odds are against us all.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiter422', 'b')ut i'm curious about when do you believe the drastic effects will approximately begin?

[jupiter422]

Thank you all for this great information and site.I don't do much posting, but I read every post I can. I am absolutely fascinated by all the material I find on this site and links off of this site. I am only 23 years old
I am married and have a 7 month old daughter. My mind hurts trying to understand
comprehend all this, not to mention how i feel about the future of my daughter and how important this knowledge is for her and how i raise her.
Sorry for the biography ,but thanks for a great site I truly enjoy deep thinking aND man this has got me thinking constantly.

[B] "On a long enough time line the survival rate for everyone is zero"

[ohanian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiter422', 'T')hank you all for this great information and site.I don't do much posting, but I read every post I can. I am absolutely fascinated by all the material I find on this site and links off of this site. I am only 23 years old
I am married and have a 7 month old daughter. My mind hurts trying to understand
comprehend all this, not to mention how i feel about the future of my daughter and how important this knowledge is for her and how i raise her.
Sorry for the biography ,but thanks for a great site I truly enjoy deep thinking aND man this has got me thinking constantly.

"On a long enough time line the survival rate for everyone is zero"

[Triffin]

Failure of the electric grid ??

gego posted ..

"If Richard Duncan is correct, then a dramatic event will happen, and that dramatic event will be a failure of the electric system"

Just curious, in Duncan's view, what event causes the failure of the electric grid ?? It can't be PO as we
don't use it to generate electricity ..

Triff ..

[ozkrenske]

Triffin,
The theory of Electric grid failure is actually only about 1/3rd based in PO. Historically we have seen most of the worlds power systems sold off over the last 20-50 years in the name of privitisation. This is to blame for about another 1/3rd and the final bit is simply secondary cost increases.

Let me explain more fully. Peak oil is really a sub set of Peak energy, and also describes what happens with natural gas quite well. A large portion of new generation capacity in many nations around the world has been built using Gas turbine generators. These are cleaner and cheaper to build and for a short while were cheaper to run. Unfortunately for society there appears to be a much smaller supply of natural gas and it has many additional industrial uses so we are seeing it's peaking begin at local levels around the world. Prices are also going up up and up and I do not see them coming back down. What this means is this portion (and a very few direct oil burning power stations) of energy production is being directly affected by scarcity and major price increases. Expect to see most of the new generating capacity within the US (and to a lesser extent the world) that has been built up over the last 20 years become much more expensive and nonviable.

Now I could talk more about electrical substitution being used to offset oil shortage and cost, shifting stress into the electrical system but that is enough for now on the PO aspect.

Next we have Privatisation. The general push towards efficiency within the electrical systems as a result of privatisation has led to almost no surpluss capacity existing in many nations and with greatly reduced investment and maintenance. As an example I give the cascade collapse of power in the US, caused by falling branches, that was the great summer blackout of 2003 ( I think it was 03 or was it 04?). The system at the moment is so under resourced that these privately run concerns are actually trying to reduce consumer load out of a desire not to expend money on investment and maintenance. A private company should be working to supply what the consumer wants but in this situation of technical and existent monopoly the private companies have realised they make more money out of barely maintaining capacity, minimising maintenance, upping costs to users and begging for governmental handouts. As demand will continue going up ( and more so due to energy use transferrence from oil/gas) we will see more demand on the power network and unless someone comes up with the 500-600 billion required to supply the capacity and redundancies needed in the system, we will see more and more systemic fialures. This is also ignoring the fact that this inelastic supply, to growing demand trend could well see people priced out of the market for electricity in the 10+ year time period.

Thirdly I gave secondary cost effects. This can be severely effected by the first 2 issues but can be treated as a seperate cause. What is it? it is simply the fact that as everything goes up in price due to production cost increases from higher oil prices (great big trucks, draglines and trains need to run on something) available money in the sector goes away. So as costs go up, important new construction expenditure, maintenance work and technological conservation programs will all suffer as a result.

Now the combination of all three effects are just too likely to cause persistent failure of sections of the grid in the midterm future (California to be a major sufferer) and at some point it will see considerable price rises in electricity costs. For many poor people it is possible that easily available electricity could become a luxury.

[bartholland]

Have no internet source yet. Was just on the Dutch radio.
2 infected swans have been found.

Was bound to happen of course.

[Aqua]

Try this one

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4704046.stm

Looks like chicken is going to be off the menu in Europe soon

[gego]

Why is it that humans can get the bird flu from contact with infected birds, but the flu does not transmit from contact with a human who has the bird flu?

Could one of you who has knowledge in this area explain?