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When does the next leg up in prices start?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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When will oil begin to rise to $200

Poll ended at Wed 19 Nov 2008, 20:54:11

now
20
No votes
q1 2009
10
No votes
q2 2009
9
No votes
q3 2009
2
No votes
q4 2009
5
No votes
q1 2010
0
0%
q2 2010
2
No votes
q3 2010
1
No votes
q4 2010
1
No votes
 
Total votes : 50

Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 21:14:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'Y')esplease,

It also occured to me your not taking into consideration the Rule of 72. For example, you state that in the 70's oil crisis the US system didn't collapse and demand shrank about 4% for 4 years.
No I didn't.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'T')he U.S. "system" used about 5-6% less oil per year for nearly four years, yet somehow we're all still here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'T')his isn't the same as yearly production dropping by 6% each year for four years. If production drops by 6% each year for 4 years, would oil production would drop by about a third in four years, which is far different than demand dropping by 4% for a 4 year period.
That depends on your reference. For example the decline rates the IEA talks about, 6% per year, are based on the total of the previous year (as seen by the curve bottoming out), whereas I was using a static reference, ~19mbpd.

In other words, in terms of the IEA's metric for measuring decline, the U.S. was a wee bit under 6%/year, and assuming a static 6% of 19mbpd, the U.S. was a wee bit over 5%, so I just used 5-6% to cover both.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'T')his means demand for oil will have to drop with oil production, which means, demand for oil will also have to drop by a third in those 4 years - not a mere 4%.
Whoosawhatsa? Lets go back over the arithmetic. You said demand for oil would have to drop by a third over four years, but even at a 6% static rate, that's only a 24% drop over four years, not even a quarter, much less a third, and using the recursive definition the IEA uses, it's less than 24% compared to the maximal amount.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'T')he world has never had to deal with a 6% yearly drop in world oil production. I do not see how the world global economic system could withstand such a shock.
I doubt the world would have to deal w/ a 6% decline rate in terms of production that isn't brought on by simply using less, but even if it did, considering it's take a 4% decline rate over a few years well,I doubt it would be TEOTWAWKI. Would it be more painful? That's definitely a possibility, but the global economic system would almost certainly survive, albeit w/ the possibility for proportionally less activity.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 21:26:59

"Hopefully the new administration's policy wrt Carbon emissions will address this, and compared to the current administration almost anything is an improvement."

Well, we can certainly agree on this, at least.

I do wonder where you come by your sunny disposition. Perhaps you could share with the rest of us whatever it is that keeps you so peppy and bright? [smilie=drunken_smilie.gif] [smilie=tongue8.gif] [smilie=occasion14.gif] [smilie=qgreenjumpers.gif] [smilie=new_silly.gif] [smilie=new_gmorning.gif] [smilie=new_icecream.gif]

(Sorry, I went emoticon-crazy looking for one smoking something.)
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby yesplease » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 22:09:57

I think the "sunny" disposition you're referring to is indicative of what's considered an "even temper" aka a centrist attitude. For instance when looking at the stock market over the past hundred years or so, it tends to be either over or undervalued compared to the average value, probably because people tend to be optimistic or depressive wrt various things and tend not to look at stuff objectively. On other forums I imagine that my opinions wrt oil prices and it's impacts would be looked at as "gloomy", In short I'm probably seen as both gloomy and sunny depending on who you ask, c0rnuc0pians or d00mc0pians. ;)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 23:43:10

Oil will not fall below 40 a barrel ever!!!

We are at the bottom rung now.

Enjoy it while you can!

This time next year we will be back around 90 +
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 00:02:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'O')il will not fall below 40 a barrel ever!!!

We are at the bottom rung now.

That's what the majority of people on this forum said about $70. And a plurality said about $50. I can show you people on this forum who thought $110 would be the bottom!

Never say never.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby jamest » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 00:45:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '
')Never say never.


Exactly!
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 01:42:51

FWIW, like TheDude or OF2 or whoever else pointed out, five year futures are commanding a significant premium, so it isn't as if people are expecting demand and supply to stay where they are now.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby supersonic » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 02:04:01

I hope the price of oil continues to decline, so I can go on a nice vacation.
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 06:58:32

Demand and supply are both about stagnating now, and they will both start sinking soon. The price will be determined by which is falling faster.

Pretty hard to know ahead of time, and timing will be tricky as always.

One last point, yesplease. Economists often talk about history showing this or that, but they are just talking about statistics. History in its broader sense requires looking at a wide range of variables and trends.

The next century is not going to be the same as the last century. I hope we can agree on that, at least.
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby yesplease » Mon 24 Nov 2008, 17:31:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dohboi', 'O')ne last point, yesplease. Economists often talk about history showing this or that, but they are just talking about statistics. History in its broader sense requires looking at a wide range of variables and trends.

The next century is not going to be the same as the last century. I hope we can agree on that, at least.
In terms of ups and downs the past couple centuries have been more or less the same, and the only thing that changes is what goes up and down in terms of different companies. If you have any compelling evidence the supports some of the claims you've made I'm all for it, but this looks to be another downturn following an upturn, following etc...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 01:43:04

I am saying never.

It will not fall below 40 a barrel
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 02:28:20

Never? What kinda odds are we talking about here? Are you willing to give 1000:1? :-D
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Tue 25 Nov 2008, 22:14:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'N')ever? What kinda odds are we talking about here? Are you willing to give 1000:1? :-D


Yes, but we need a definitive time frame, or otherwise I can never collect
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 16:04:31

Only $4 more to go!
--> Oil closes at $43.62 <--
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby KevO » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 16:12:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'I') can say categorically that OPEC will NEVER let oil fall below $60 for more than a few days as most middle eastern countries budgets and Nigeria's are base on oil being at or nearabouts $65 and as those countries produce the oil that runs their budgets they hold the reins on the price. They'll simply keep cutting and cutting production.
I expect at least a 1mbpd cut this week if not 2


How wrong can one be. ish
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 17:13:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'N')ever? What kinda odds are we talking about here? Are you willing to give 1000:1? :-D
Yes, but we need a definitive time frame, or otherwise I can never collect
Alrighty, how about betting my dollar against your 1,000 dollars that oil (Dated Brent Spot) will drop below $40/bbl within the next two years, so before December 4th 2010?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Professor Membrane', ' ')Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby davep » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 17:57:09

Light sweet crude is only 3.67 above the threshold. Brent, 2.28 above.
What we think, we become.
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 04 Dec 2008, 18:34:56

Shhh..... I'm tryin' to see how serious this poster is, and puttin up a buck to win a grand on something that's fairly likely IMO is a bet I'm up fer. :-D
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 16:12:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', 'O')il will not fall below 40 a barrel ever!!!

We are at the bottom rung now.

I told you to never say never.

--> Oil down $2.85 to close at $40.81 <--
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Oil prices below $40 - when?

Unread postby rdsaltpower » Fri 05 Dec 2008, 16:55:33

Jason...you lose...step up and pay the man. lol
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