[Elijah]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ebyss', 'D')id you make any money out of it?

[DriveElectric]

Check the following two oil companies.

KPZ - PetroKazakhstan Inc
TMY - TRANSMERIDIAN EXPLOR

Both are involved mainly in Kazakhstan. They are growing their reserves rapidly. Also later this year there is a pipeline to China which is opening.

I bought them both earlier this week. Up about 3% and 7% this week for me so far. I plan on holding them both for a long time. The oil they produce is light sweet crude which receives a premium on the world market. Once that pipeline to China opens in late 2005, they will have a new export market to ship to.

Currently they are forced to export with rail cars. The pipeline will dramatically reduce export costs and improve profits, plus expand exports.

[Triffin]

It's not too late ..

Leap Puts on the market ..
Leap Puts on Boeing ..
Leap Puts on housing stocks ..
Leap Puts on mortgage lenders/brokers ..

Leap Calls on major oils
Leap Calls on major gas
Leap Calls on major coal
Leap Calls on railroads
Leap Calls on tar sands plays
Leap Calls on hybrid vehicle components manufacturers
Leap Calls on mining equipment

Short Suburbia .. Long Rural ..
Long beneficieries of telecommuting ..
Long bicycle manufacturers ..
Long anything to with building out electric grid
Long new nuclear

OK .. I'm out of money

Triff ..

[Ebyss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, yes, as a matter of fact I did.

[DriveElectric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Triffin', '
')Leap Puts on the market ..
Leap Puts on Boeing ..
Leap Puts on housing stocks ..
Leap Puts on mortgage lenders/brokers ..

[JBinKC]

Assuming we are at peak oil it is still going to be hard to make money unless you actually own the commodity itself and since their is no ETF for oil you will have to buy futures contracts. The reason I say this is the economy will be very weak and stocks won't go up with exception to a very few "fringe" sectors as I call them the pawn shop operators and a few select casino undervalued operators like Sands Regent. Oil stocks probably will hold their value but if production is declining year over year at the company the stock will be penalized some by the street and pressed to go much higher.

I think your easiest play is to SELL SHORT the last strong sector (industrial metal stocks) as the stock prices have run up big time and demand will definitely fall off. It is evident that the market sees this coming as the companies have sold off some and are not rebounding with oil this time around as it has been true in the last oil rallies. If oil spikes like I think it will I think rates will decline as opposed to rise like many here think because I believe the fed will do everything in its power to maintain the strength in the housing sector.

I also see GM even though it has tanked to go much lower as it does not have any product to counter high oil prices and it has those pension/medical liabilities. I make a large bet GM will be forced to suspend its dividend soon and the stock will tank even further.

If you want to buy something I would choose the heavy sour crude refiners ie VLO TSO FTO(but make sure you have data for the refinery spreads and make sure they are still increasing [I feel the spread between heavy and light will eventually shrink]) or something that is grossly undervalued in oil production and there are a few only a few names that come to mind.

My favorite stock is Tatneft NYSE TNT "a Russian oil stock" when it comes to value. The company is being penalized for 3 reasons 1) the company has the lowest dividend of its peer group 2)it is the only Russian firm that has not increased its reserves. 3)the company has had trouble getting its accounting to comply to US GAAP.

Wall street is currently valuing those reserves at only 55 CENTS a bbl
about 30 times less than the US integrateds, its book value is about HALF of its current price and its PE is ONLY 3 if you accept the Russian accounting numbers. I think the value in Russia will be unlocked when it actually gets into the WTO and the heavily subsidized domestic oil market will be forced to pay the going oil rate.


Another stock I like is Chapparal Resources CHAR but it has made a big run up into its earnings report. So I think it would be wise to accumulate it into about a 1/3 retracement of its latest gains. CHAR is going to increase production by close to 33-50% in FY 2005. What I like about CHAR is the float of the stock has been taken away by Nelson Resources.
The reserves are selling cheaply at only $3 a bbl also. The only uncertainty I have is Nelson's intentions with the remaining float. If they want the remaining shares I think you probably wouldn't make much from here. However if the company puts the stock onto a major exchange coupled with its thin float and potential earnings momentum it could double in a year's time.

Another stock I like is NUT the company trades below book value and that book value is based upon 1986 Hawaiian land prices. What makes the stock interesting is according to an SEC filing they have renegotiated a pricing of their product to be 85% higher than last year. This price increase has not found its way to the bottom line yet as the harvest tends to be in Q3 and 4. I am expecting a large payout increase and a 50-100% price increase in the stock in a year's time.

I will disclose I am long all three of the above stocks.

I also like the superconductor stocks like IMGC and AMSC but timing is the key issue here. Definitely keep a close monitor on that technology sector as well as the carbon microtubial nanotechnology sector as they are very extremely important for conservation reasons. For instance, you could increase electric capacity in a second by 35% by installing HTS wire.

I think you will also do well owning government bonds in some higher risk countries that are net exporters of resources like Brazil Kazakhstan and Russia and low risk Canada because I feel worldwide rates are poised to go lower again to help prevent a HUGE disaster in the American real estate market. For instance I love Russian government bonds and currency because of the strong fiscal position it is in now with high oil prices and its high excise taxes for exports when prices are over $25 a bbl.

[lowem]

Look for good mining juniors.

I got some which doubled, and one which tripled (!!!) - though I sold that one too early (before it tripled - darn!).

DO NOT put all your money into this kind of thing, though. Just a small portion, the kind and amount of money you can lose 100% and will not lose sleep at night over.

Juniors can easily double OR halve in price, so - buy on fundamentals, and watch the technicals VERY closely.