[the48thronin]

Not to say that doom steads and quaint politically correct lifestyle villages are not the answer for some.

But in reality, the change from "oil energy/chemical dependent constant growth or die society" to something more survivable for the majority of humanity might in fact be accomplished.

Has everyone gotten so immersed in their own intellectual superiority over those who fail to recognize the need as to have decided Darwin demands allowing a massive crash and die off instead of simply inventing and promulgating an alternative future?

Just a question the constant "prep for the zombies" thread hijacking has caused me to ask.

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'B')ut in reality, the change from "oil energy/chemical dependent constant growth or die society" to something more survivable for the majority of humanity might in fact be accomplished.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'B')ut in reality, the change from "oil energy/chemical dependent constant growth or die society" to something more survivable for the majority of humanity might in fact be accomplished.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'B')ut in reality, the change from "oil energy/chemical dependent constant growth or die society" to something more survivable for the majority of humanity might in fact be accomplished.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I')'ve personally never accepted the idea that those who survive will do so because they are "more deserving." I'm one of the sick and (somewhat) older so I put myself in that "sorry about" group.
Die-off is likely inevitable because it appears to be a kind of biological law. If you don't accept humans are subject to biological laws, then it might be hard for you and I to reach any kind of consensus ("universally acceptable solution"). I don't agree with those who think die-off must necessarily be horrific. I've attempted, for years, to post information which will help people, their families, and communities, ease transition to a sustainable future which likely must mean a lower human population. That doesn't mean billions of people must die prematurely, it just means deaths must exceed births. But I'm considered a wacky optimist.

[the48thronin]

Did you decide to take your marbles and go home? NO one else can play if you are not the game leader?

How impressive!

NOT!

ps (all the posts are duplicated on my blog including quotes...)

[outcast]

People have been yelling DDDDOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!! about many things in the last 150 years (and longer), they have always given us prophesies about how doom is right around the corner for so long........and yet not a single one of their predictions has come true, especially when it comes to the "looming" resources shortages. All the predictions made by the peak oil super stars (matt simmons and john kunstler come to mind) within the last 5 years hasn't come true.

It's basically a moving goalpost, everytime you get "close" it keeps getting pushed back.

[Ludi]

You're welcome to start your own thread, ronin.

Yes, I'm taking what marbles I have left and leaving in a huff.

Have fun!

[MrBean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'T')he quest here is for a workable universally acceptable solution ( wow that's setting the bar high) being as we at least see the approaching apocalypse.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'T')he quest here is for a workable universally acceptable solution ( wow that's setting the bar high) being as we at least see the approaching apocalypse.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'Y')ou're welcome to start your own thread, ronin. Yes, I'm taking what marbles I have left and leaving in a huff. Have fun!

[TWilliam]

Ronin,

With regard to what appears to be your underlying assumption here that a 7+ billion world population is sustainable long-term, if we'd just 'figure out how to do it' - here are a couple of things that might be worth considering:

a) If it's physically possible for the planet to sustain such a population, why, pray tell, has it never (at least as far as we know) even remotely approached that level prior to the widespread technological exploitation of hydrocarbon fuels? Two words that might suggest an avenue for considering this particular question: 'Green Revolution'.

b) Can't remember where I first heard (read?) about this particular idea, but I came across it awhile back and it definitely gave me pause for thought. Consider the fact that, at least in any effective sense, there is a finite amount of biomass upon this planet. The more of it that gets converted into human bodies, the less of it there is to be utilized by everything else. What implications might this have for the biosphere at large, and its ability to sustain us?

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TWilliam', 'R')onin,
With regard to what appears to be your underlying assumption here that a 7+ billion world population is sustainable long-term, if we'd just 'figure out how to do it' - here are a couple of things that might be worth considering:
a) If it's physically possible for the planet to sustain such a population, why, pray tell, has it never (at least as far as we know) even remotely approached that level prior to the widespread technological exploitation of hydrocarbon fuels? Two words that might suggest an avenue for considering this particular question: 'Green Revolution'.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', ' ')if anyone wishes we can continue this discussion as "deleted" in advance memoriam to those billions of not worthy soon to be left behind ( starving is such a brutal description for it) who would have hoped we found a real answer "plan that will work" for them too....

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'A') cockroach is a primitive form of life existent unchanged since the age of the dinosaurs

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', ' ')if anyone wishes we can continue this discussion as "deleted" in advance memoriam to those billions of not worthy soon to be left behind ( starving is such a brutal description for it) who would have hoped we found a real answer "plan that will work" for them too....

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'S')o is it arrogance to assume there might be a world changing "plan" or designed way of creating for capturing or using energy that would avoid the effects of the oil use gluttony we call Peak Oil.... Why is it not more hubristic to give up and join the refrain saying there is not a way to enable the current population to survive and prosper using some alternative that would be self evidently better than to continue the search for a plan that works?

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'S')o is it arrogance to assume there might be a world changing "plan" or designed way of creating for capturing or using energy that would avoid the effects of the oil use gluttony we call Peak Oil.... Why is it not more hubristic to give up and join the refrain saying there is not a way to enable the current population to survive and prosper using some alternative that would be self evidently better than to continue the search for a plan that works?

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('the48thronin', 'S')o is it arrogance to assume there might be a world changing "plan" or designed way of creating for capturing or using energy that would avoid the effects of the oil use gluttony we call Peak Oil.... Why is it not more hubristic to give up and join the refrain saying there is not a way to enable the current population to survive and prosper using some alternative that would be self evidently better than to continue the search for a plan that works?

[dohboi]

Well, since I'm being quoted in this thread, I guess I should pitch in a bit.

First of all, I consider myself a confirmed doomer, but I also find it impossible to avoid thinking about and working toward some kind of viable future. I guess that makes me officially schizo.

One of the paradoxes I see is that, as ronin suggested, localized economies are necessary for a viable future. But how do you globally enforce localism?

It reminds me of graffiti I once saw: "Anarchy would be hard to legislate." (Or something like that).

I agree with Plant that there will need to be a wide variety of local variations, but within certain parameters.

It might be good to turn this on its head. Any way of living is fine except one--the kind that makes future life impossible (basically the current norm).

I do still think that if people really realized what we are up against, they would lose their taste for much that has become "normal."

A full, deep realization of how abysmally we have performed as a species should send about half the population into a deeply contemplative state, uninterested in anything but the most basic sustenance and no pro-creative sex. Essentially monks and nuns. Penitence is surely the sanest response to the situation we have driven ourselves and the planet. Ideally, most of this group will come from those who have contributed most to the debacle.

(It is reasonable to say at this point with nearly 7 b humans already here that about the only kind of sex that is deeply and utterly perverse is heterosexual sex by people that are fertile and of childbearing age. Spread that meme successfully and we're half way there.)

If the rest used almost nothing that could not be obtained from beyond 100 miles (and almost all from even closer, say 50miles) or so from their homes, and if they kept themselves to under one child per couple, and that late in life, we may be able to stay ahead of die off and keep a tiny window open for the slimmest chance that GW won't spin completely out of control (though that ship may well have already sailed).

If we hold on to any tiniest scrap of an idea that we can carry on anything like most of the wealthiest third of humanity has in the last hundred years, we are utterly lost.

This doubtless seems impossible, and almost certainly it is. But essentially it is just a change of fashion.

A few years back, tens of millions of people completely gave up what for millennia had been considered the very staff of life--bread. And that was just for a silly, selfish diet fad. What if living well within our ecological means became the latest fashion? Of course, this fashion would have to then become deeply cultural and essentially never change in its essentials.

The latest understanding of human evolution is that we evolved as a species with a special ability to adapt rapidly to sudden changes in our environment. This will be the greatest test of that special ability of ours since we first crawled out of the Olduvai Gorge (probably itself as an adaptation to a rapidly changing environment).

OK, I'm done with my pollyanna rant and back to my true doomer soul--we had our chance forty years ago or so to turn this thing around and we blew it. I'm not sure we deserve a livable future.