[CrudeAwakening]

I think what the events of the last few years show is that the price of oil is an imperfect proxy for scarcity, and that people who were relying on price signals to produce mitigating long-term changes in investment and consumption behaviour were failing to factor in the confounding element of price volatility.

Volatility of the sort we have witnessed obscures the underlying trend, producing a sequence of false peaks and false troughs that all too easily shortens the time horizons of those who are trying to plan for an uncertain future.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I')t only looks silly to those that don't understand peak oil. Oil prices dropped because demand was crushed by high oil prices, not because we found more oil. So, to those who are aware of the economic cycles predicted by PO theorist, this was predictable. Try reading Colin Campbell's book "The Coming Oil Crisis" published in 1999 where he discusses this very cycle. You'll find it elsewhere as well.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', 'Y')ergin seems to have been a great contrarian indicator for the price of oil. But he did call the near-$150 ceiling, though...

I've also noticed that he is conspicuously absent from any major articles, as of late.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', '
')your second paragraph analysis just stops short in that it doesn't ask why we were suddenly willing to sell these ARMs and other devices designed to open the credit markets to unworthy borrowers.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rambo', 'T')he price of oil has dropped by nearly 2/3 and no matter how people try and rationalize it you have to admit peak oil is now a hard sell.

[the48thronin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'S')o, when was it an easy sell?
7.1.08? No, not then. And not 40 years ago when oil production peaked in the biggest oil producing nation ever.
But we've still kept our appetite up. You don't sell hard change, you just show the way.

[KevO]

As long as the economy stays as it is or gets worse, which is inevitible, then peak oil will NOT be a reality EVER as we won't use enough up before civilisation fully collapses. This is the last recession so peak oil wont happen now.

BUT..IF the economy ever went 'back to how it was,' there won't be any oil to run it so lucky we hit hard times really to save real hard times.

[vtsnowedin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he housing bubble was directly related to PO. PO caused the economy to stagnate, so they needed a way to keep the party going for a final hurray. They knew what the outcome would be. They also knew it was a way to rape and pillage the most amount of money from the American economy before it blew. They have made out like bandits and the US people are left holding the bag.

[Ayoob]

How does it look silly? You have to take a long view. And maybe we haven't even peaked yet! Serious decline hasn't set in for sure. We haven't lost 10 million barrels a day for sure, much less 40 million barrels a day. We don't know when that's going to happen, or what kind of economic situations we'll face as production declines.

In some ways, I've come to understand that peak oil is a way of describing the usage of all the Earth's resources in a way that is unsustainable. It's like saying, "Nice wheels" when you see a cool car. You name a part as a way of naming the whole.

Maybe oil is the first beam to break, and food is the second. Maybe food breaks first and beats oil to the punch. Maybe finance breaks first and the idea of using price as a proxy for availability unhooks from our presupposed ideas of how this is going to play out.

The world is a complex place and a lot of factors compete with each other for importance.

I believe that if you understand one part of the whole, you get a picture of the whole and can work your way across different scenarios and ideas to come to a more complete picture of what's happening.

It sure is interesting that the world of finance is in so much trouble right around the time that the peak oil people are calling for the global production peak.

Ten years from now I bet the picture we see in the rear view mirror will be much more clear than whatever we're seeing today.

I had such clear ideas about what was going to happen in finance about two years ago and made some money speculating. Over the summer, the 4th of July week, I lost the thread. Every page of every newspaper I read had stories about oil and related issues. The shoeshine kid on the corner knew about Ghawar, and I figured that was the signal to bail. I called in my investors and pulled the plug on the commodities boom and here we are in the middle of a commodities crash.

I don't know what to do now. I'm really at a loss. I'll tell you what I'm buying, though. I probably go to five different grocery stores every week. For one reason or another I can combine trips and end up in front of a different store almost every day. This one has green beans, ten cents a can. That one has chicken quarters two for one. The next one has beef on sale half off AND two for one.

I'm at 60 days of food in the pantry and I just saw 20lb turkeys on sale for 29 cents a pound. I'm going to take the white meat and make turkey jerkey, and the rest is getting pressure canned.

Whatever you want to have a year from now, you better buy that shit now. I don't think anyone really knows what's coming next. So, buy it cheap and stack it deep. Tea candles, $6 for a hundred. You bet your ass I buy a bag every time I pass that store. There's a 50lb bag of rice with my name on it at teh Costco, too.

link

[halcyon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Rambo', 'T')he price of oil has dropped by nearly 2/3 and no matter how people try and rationalize it you have to admit peak oil is now a hard sell.

[dohboi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', '"')as long as the economy stays as it is or gets worse, which is inevitible, then peak oil will NOT be a reality EVER as we won't use enough up before civilisation fully collapses. This is the last recession so peak oil wont happen now.
BUT..IF the economy ever went 'back to how it was,' there won't be any oil to run it so lucky we hit hard times really to save real hard times"

[ki11ercane]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'S')o, to those who are aware of the economic cycles predicted by PO theorist, this was predictable.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'H')ow does it look silly? You have to take a long view. And maybe we haven't even peaked yet! Serious decline hasn't set in for sure. We haven't lost 10 million barrels a day for sure, much less 40 million barrels a day. We don't know when that's going to happen, or what kind of economic situations we'll face as production declines.

[Kristen]

the whole point of peak oil us that we have peaked on light crude, so the froth is gone.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', 't')he whole point of peak oil us that we have peaked on light crude, so the froth is gone.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kristen', 't')he whole point of peak oil us that we have peaked on light crude, so the froth is gone.

[shortonsense]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'L')ike I said before, fixating on the statistical peak is irrelevant.

[ROCKMAN]

I agree with you mos. Statistical peaks/plateaus aren't they key to the impact on daily life. But given the continuing slide of the US economy a sustained price of $60 - 70/bbl could impact our wounded economy as harshly as the prediction of $300 oil. And if OPEC can finally develop discipline to truly reduce rates to regain support for oil prices then PO, as most define it, may be replaced by PS...Peak Supply for lack of a better term. The oil exporters reduce deliveries in a combined effort to raise prices, decrease their depletion rate and provide for increasing internal consumption. I think we’ll have to wait another 3 or 4 months to see if OPEC finally becomes a true cartel.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ROCKMAN', 'a') sustained price of $60 - 70/bbl could impact our wounded economy as harshly as the prediction of $300 oil.

[ROCKMAN]

I agree again. That was my point: the economy might have as much difficulty dealing with mid-range oil prices as some had predicted for the high end. A lot of folks (maybe several million+) who bitched about paying for $4 for gas may be bitching even louder about having no job to pay for $1.50 gas in the next year or two.

Always sad to hear about the impact at personal levels. It's a somewhat surreal feeling here at the middle of the oil patch in Houston. The economy is still booming to a degree. Plenty of job openings in all sectors (except house construction). No massive real estate devaluation (Houston always had very low housing costs compared to the nation). Oil prices may be down and oil companies are cutting back activity but no layoffs. In fact, for most of us at the grunt level we can use a break from the former hectic schedules. So it's feels odd to watch the news and see all the developing heartache in the rest of the country. But that’s the cycle: back in the 80’s while the rest of the country was awash in $10 oil we were crippled to near extinction. With 10 years of experience and a master’s in geology I was delivering produce to restaurants. But life is good now and should remain so till I retire in 6 years. Would be nice to see us all prosper but looks like it will be many years before the country recoveries from the current fiasco.