Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 21 Nov 2008, 19:47:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', ' ')You might have everything worked out but run out of salt in two years, for instance.

When I run out of salt in 2 years???

You gotta be kidding.

I'm gonna split this stuff out of Horse's thread to somewhere, I guess it will be to the Open.

Stand by...
You went off topic and I responded to what you were saying. But have at it.
Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
User avatar
PenultimateManStanding
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11363
Joined: Sun 28 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Neither Here Nor There

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Fri 21 Nov 2008, 19:51:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'Y')ou might have everything worked out but run out of salt in two years, for instance.


I know this was just an example and I concur about the need for community.... that being said, the blood of animals that can survive in the area without humans is a source of salt. Gross, but a source of salt.

The most important thing to stockpile is knowledge.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
User avatar
wisconsin_cur
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4576
Joined: Thu 10 May 2007, 03:00:00
Location: 45 degrees North. 883 feet above sealevel.

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby Pops » Fri 21 Nov 2008, 19:54:44

Here is the self-sufficiency thread in Open:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic48420.html

Lets leave Horses' thread alone on this count.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby shortonoil » Fri 21 Nov 2008, 20:10:38

seahorse said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n an individual level we all need to conserve in every way shape and form. Conserve means become more responsible, more self reliant. Simplicity in thought and action.


Asset prices are declining. Stocks, bonds, real estate, used cars, furniture, art, everything. Banks are holding $ trillions in loans backed by assets, and these assets are declining in value. The banks are losing huge sums of money on the loans that they hold, so they are reluctant to issue further loans. The monetary/financial system is coming apart.

This is the onset of a deflationary depression; the collapse of debt based fiat currency. Debt based fiat can not be maintained in the post Peak world and will fail.

The Available Energy model indicates that the US will reduce its energy usage by 28% over the next five years. If we do it willingly it will prevent an economic disaster from happening. If we don't our economy will come crashing down.

Like you say, few see this as an energy problem. Even though we could reduce our energy usage as needed, and do it while other needed energy sources are being developed, our lack of understanding will almost insure that we don't.

The irony of Peak Oil is that in spite of it grave ramifications, it will not have to have happened like it will!
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby errorist » Sat 22 Nov 2008, 00:02:39

Can the Self sufficent uberhuman remember sabletooth tiger? Locusts? Pneumonia?

FYI: civilization was called into existence to increase chances of survival.

In some billion years your siblings will meet a nearby red dwarf. Good luck to survive this on your own.
User avatar
errorist
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 109
Joined: Wed 28 May 2008, 03:00:00

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby Revi » Sat 22 Nov 2008, 21:49:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]seahorse said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n an individual level we all need to conserve in every way shape and form. Conserve means become more responsible, more self reliant. Simplicity in thought and action.


Asset prices are declining. Stocks, bonds, real estate, used cars, furniture, art, everything. Banks are holding $ trillions in loans backed by assets, and these assets are declining in value. The banks are losing huge sums of money on the loans that they hold, so they are reluctant to issue further loans. The monetary/financial system is coming apart.

This is the onset of a deflationary depression; the collapse of debt based fiat currency. Debt based fiat can not be maintained in the post Peak world and will fail.

The Available Energy model indicates that the US will reduce its energy usage by 28% over the next five years. If we do it willingly it will prevent an economic disaster from happening. If we don't our economy will come crashing down.

Like you say, few see this as an energy problem. Even though we could reduce our energy usage as needed, and do it while other needed energy sources are being developed, our lack of understanding will almost insure that we don't.

The irony of Peak Oil is that in spite of it grave ramifications, it will not have to have happened like it will!


I agree with you guys completely. We can easily live a great life with 28% less of everything, but we are going to choose not to. We are going to try to keep the growth going by burning the furniture. It's not going to work. I have hopes that Obama can institute a green economy, but there are too many knuckleheads out there that won't go for it.

I would love to be proved wrong.
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Maine
Top

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 22 Nov 2008, 22:04:18

Revi,

I also hope you are wrong but after kicking around 58 years I doubt you will be. One thing I have learned, IMHO, there is very little any politician or even an entire gov't agency can do to alter the flow of the economy to any great degree. But, if they try really hard, they can make it worse. PE Obama is a very charistmatic but, as you imply, human nature has developed over 100's of thousabds of years. Not likely to change of its own free will in a 4 year period.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11397
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 22 Nov 2008, 22:10:32

The most convincing argument I've read (Stoneleigh at theautomaticearth.blogspot.com a few days ago) is that there is just too much deleveraging yet to be done to the tune of umpteen trillions for injections of cash to do anything but disappear down into the black hole. No inflation on the distant horizon, just more and worse deflation. Is that right? Beats me. But it makes sense.
Turn those Machines back On! - Don Ameche in Trading Places
User avatar
PenultimateManStanding
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11363
Joined: Sun 28 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Neither Here Nor There

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 01:51:58

Defaltion will continue in general for the next 18 months, with some counter-current seasonal inflation in oil for the summer driving seasons. After that inflation will resume in a stronger way as the economies come out of recession.

The green economy will not produce as much energy as the fossil fuel economy as the energy density in solar, wind, bio-fuels etc is lower than it is in oil, coal, and natural gas.

g
TreebeardsUncle
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 683
Joined: Thu 15 Jun 2006, 03:00:00

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby cube » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 02:57:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'O')utcome: Deflation.


For now. Itulip says it's looking like the deflation will last until June 2009, then inflation for the next 5 years.
I agree.
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 03:48:26

What nobody is realizing about inflation, esp hyperinflation. is that it needs to be facilitated in order to take place. It isn't facilitated without something like the good old wage price spiral. Nothing like the spiral is conceivable in today's America. If you are an inflation hawk you will need to argue how the spiral can be reintroduced.
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
User avatar
evilgenius
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3730
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 04:00:00
Location: Stopped at the Border.

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby cube » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 04:15:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'W')hat nobody is realizing about inflation, esp hyperinflation. is that it needs to be facilitated in order to take place. It isn't facilitated without something like the good old wage price spiral. Nothing like the spiral is conceivable in today's America. If you are an inflation hawk you will need to argue how the spiral can be reintroduced.
You want an answer?
An increase in the money supply must eventually find it's way into rising consumer prices.
Please don't tell me you believe the money supply can be increased without introducing inflation. To hold such an opinion is akin to believing you can get something for nothing. If that were true then we could run the printing press as much as we want and not have to pay for any consequences. How does that make any sense? IT DOESN'T!

Inflation is being put on hold right now. What's the word that everybody is using right now? "deleveraging"
Like what was mentioned before, wait till mid 2009 and you'll see inflation pick up.
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 04:24:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'Y')ou want an answer?
An increase in the money supply must eventually find it's way into rising consumer prices.


Not so long as there is the Black Hole of the CDS/CDO market. We have only printed maybe $2T so far. A good $60T of ink needs to be put on paper before the money finds its way out of that hole.

NONE of the money being floated to the banks at near zero interest rates is finding its way out to the real economy. By the time enough money is printed to inflate the economy, the patient will have long since expired. You cannot push money into an economy when the businesses are already OUT of business.

This monetary system is TOAST. The Balloon did not deflate here, it POPPED. You can't reinflate a popped balloon.

Reverse Engineer
User avatar
ReverseEngineer
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3352
Joined: Wed 16 Jul 2008, 03:00:00
Top

Re: The Moment we've all been waiting for.

Unread postby idiom » Sun 23 Nov 2008, 05:38:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Balloon did not deflate here, it POPPED. You can't reinflate a popped balloon.


Image
The world ends without a tragedy,Time is melting into history
The sky is falling, Voices crying out in desperation
Hear them calling, Everybody, save yourself
User avatar
idiom
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 672
Joined: Mon 23 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Zealand
Top

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests

cron