[Graeme]

Although the subject matter of this report by the US National Intelligence Council has been posted by DeMolay in a previous thread, this post contains links to other news articles and the original source. I think the key section in the executive summary as far as peak oil is concerned is this:

Global Trends 2025: A transformed world (excerpts)

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')y 2025 the world will be in the midst of a fundamental energy transition—in terms of both fuel types and sources. Non-OPEC liquid hydrocarbon production (i.e., crude oil, natural gas liquids, and unconventionals such as tar sands) will not be able to grow commensurate with demand. The production levels of many traditional energy producers— Yemen, Norway, Oman, Colombia, the UK, Indonesia, Argentina, Syria, Egypt, Peru, Tunisia—are already in decline. Others’ production levels—Mexico, Brunei, Malaysia, China, India, Qatar—have flattened. The number of countries capable of meaningfully expanding production will decline. Only six countries—Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait, the UAE, Iraq (potentially), and Russia—are projected to account for 39 percent of total world oil production in 2025. The major producers increasingly will be located in the Middle East, which contains some two-thirds of world reserves. OPEC production in the Persian Gulf countries is projected to grow by 43 percent during 2003- 2025. Saudi Arabia alone will account for almost half of all Gulf production, an amount greater than that expected from Africa and the Caspian area combined.

The number and geographic distribution of oil producers will decrease concurrent with another energy transition: the move to cleaner fuels. The prized fuel in the shorter term likely will be natural gas. By 2025, consumption of natural gas is expected to grow by about 60 percent, according to DoE/Energy Information Agency projections. Although natural gas deposits are not necessarily co-located with oil, they are highly concentrated. Three countries— Russia, Iran, and Qatar—hold over 57 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves. Considering oil and natural gas together, two countries—Russia and Iran—emerge as energy kingpins. Nevertheless, North America (the US, Canada, and Mexico) is expected to produce an appreciable proportion—18 percent—of total world production by 2025.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')PEC production in the Persian Gulf countries is projected to grow by 43 percent during 2003- 2025. Saudi Arabia alone will account for almost half of all Gulf production

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]The Future of Humanity: a Lecture by Isaac Asimov

...

In 1933, I read a story called "The Man Who Awoke" by Lawrence Manning. In it, did the hero wish to see what the world of the future would be like, and he was not in the kind of science-fiction story where he would have a time machine, so he had to do something else. What he did was to invent a potion, which when he drank it, put him to sleep for five thousand years, and then woke him up a little hoarse, but otherwise OK.

Now when I was young, I was only thirteen at the time, I read that and it seemed perfectly good. But now, you see, these days I apply engineering principles to something like that. I say to myself: "Gee, a potion that puts you to sleep for five thousand years and then wakes you up unharmed. How do you test it?"

[group laughs]

I figured it out how, it's allright, there is a way. You give a smaller amount to a dog...

[group laughs mildly]

..and wait five thousand years.

[group laughs mildly]

Anyway, he found himself a vault in which he would lie undisturbed for five thousand years.

Gee, the Great Pyramid at Giza didn't suffice to keep Cheops undisturbed for maybe five hundred years, let alone five thousand, but that's allright. Nobody's looking for this guy.

[mild chuckle from group]

And he stayed there five thousand years, and then woke up unharmed. Oh, give or take a few months; I mean, you know, you can't be too exact on a thing like this. And he somehow thought that he was going to come out and see a very futuristic world with all kinds of extremely super-modernistic devices flying through the air, and magical food pills and all that. And instead, what did he find? He found a very constricted world. A world in which everybody lived rather...rather not very lavish lives. You know, they dressed in homespun, and they walked everywhere, and they worried a lot about what the next meal would be. And so he said to them "What is this?" he says. "You guys are leading such a constricted lives. What's all this futurism I expected?" So they said "Oh well, you don't understand." He said: "We're short on energy. Very short on energy because some thousands of years ago there was a generation or two of human beings who burnt up all the coal and oil on Earth, and left nothing for us." And our hero said "Strange you should say that". He said "I happen to be from the very generation that did this for you!"

[mild chuckle from the group]

And so they tried to lynch him, naturally.

...