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THE US Trade Gap Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby joewp » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 02:20:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')
US consumers will be worse off but the country as a whole will be more fiscally stable.


What a disconnection with reality. What is the country "as a whole" but the sum of the US citizens? (I refuse to use the dehumanizing term "consumer") This is so typical of economist's ivory tower thinking. Some people "worse off" is fine, as long as it's not them...


Joe, Ivory Tower rambling aside, please give us your man in the street view of how to stretch $600-700 per month to cover higher prices for everything we need, when the economy is stagnating, and consumer spending is tapped out while government deficit spending is still increasing, putting further pressure on inflation and taxing the next generation's ability to service that debt. Just give us the answers straight. No sugar coating it. Thanks.


First, fix the money system so money isn't created by debt (I seem to recall you're not convinced of this, but it remains a fact), that would help to remove the impetus to constant growth (which is impossible in a finite environment). Then equalize the field by taxing only those who can afford to be taxed, the rich, through their income and accumulated wealth. Then remove all other taxes, like tolls, sales taxes, payroll taxes, property taxes, user fees, excise taxes on necessary goods and services like heat and food, etc, etc. Redistribute the wealth to those in need, without creating debt. Giving each human on the planet his "share" of global oil production would result in about 1/2 a gallon of product each, quite enough to warm the coldest night.

If resources were distributed equally rather than being mostly hoarded by the few, most of the problems of humanity would be solved. Rather than having a world where some are freezing in the dark while others are wasting energy by snowmobiling or "off-roading", a better model would allocate by need first.

LoneSnark has an interesting concept there. Jailing people for refusing to help people in need, I like it.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 02:24:22

Equally distributing the resources/wealth forcibly is communism.

Unless you can convince the better half to work harder in order to subsidize the lesser half...I don't think it's going to work.

It's fine for a small village of engaged citizens to attempt Communism. But it doesn't work very well on the larger scale. Human corruption gets in the way.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 02:34:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')oneSnark has an interesting concept there. Jailing people for refusing to help people in need, I like it.

How is an ancient common law interesting? "willful or depraved indifference to human life" is manslaughter, a lesser form of felony murder, punishments vary from state to state.

If you find someone in the middle of the desert proclaiming that they are dying of thirst, and you drive away, and they die, you will be charged with murder. This concept has existed in english common law for many centuries. That you are just now hearing about it seems disingenuous.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 07:30:27

joewp wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, fix the money system so money isn't created by debt (I seem to recall you're not convinced of this, but it remains a fact), that would help to remove the impetus to constant growth (which is impossible in a finite environment).


Actually Joe, it is the need to meet our basic needs - food, shelter, heat, cothing, etc. - that drives economic growth. Not money. As soon as we stop growing - or producing our daily bread - we die.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Then equalize the field by taxing only those who can afford to be taxed, the rich, through their income and accumulated wealth.


In other words remove any incentive to work except for what you personally need to survive. I guess the old, infirm, mentally slow and physically challenged are in for a nasty surprise then when surplus production and wealth creation disappears!

In our current system the rich do pay most the taxes. In the UK, for example, the top one percent of earners pay 22% of the taxes. According to Tyler_JC a while ago the bottom quartile hardly pay any taxes in America. Low-income wage earners actually get tax credits and social assistance. Figuritively negative taxes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Then remove all other taxes, like tolls, sales taxes, payroll taxes, property taxes, user fees, excise taxes on necessary goods and services like heat and food, etc, etc.


In other words remove the pricing that limits demand? So if supply is limited or finite, and you remove the pricing mechanism, you would create more demand. Demand would be in excess of available supply. You have not solved anything.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Redistribute the wealth to those in need, without creating debt. Giving each human on the planet his "share" of global oil production would result in about 1/2 a gallon of product each, quite enough to warm the coldest night.


Well, contrary to popular belief, natural resources may be 'free for the taking', but it costs time & money - land, labor, capital, know-how, technology and energy - to explore, drill, extract, transport, refine and distribute resources like energy, so you cannot give them away for 'free'. Ditto for clean drinking water and access to sanitation. They may be a basic human right, but they cannot be both free and freely available.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If resources were distributed equally rather than being mostly hoarded by the few, most of the problems of humanity would be solved. Rather than having a world where some are freezing in the dark while others are wasting energy by snowmobiling or "off-roading", a better model would allocate by need first.


No goat herder in the sub-Sahara ever discovered oil under a mile of water off the coast of Africa and figured out how to extract it. Why would he have a claim on that energy? Or the profits from its exploitation?

But the fact is that host governments do take most of the value from oil and the extraction of natural resources in the form of royalty payments. It is then incumbant on those governments to use those royalties to help pay for local infrastructure and social programs.

It is not the responsibility of consumers in another country with their own governments to both pay for that energy or those resources AND pay for those social programs in that oil producing or resource exporting nation.

I think we can all be grateful that the average man in the street is not making offical policy and deciding how the world should be run! ; - )
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 14:09:03

Top 1% of income earners pay 27.6% of federal taxes and 38.8% of income taxes

In 1979, the bottom 80 percent of households paid a collective 43.5 percent of federal taxes compared to a 15 percent share borne by the wealthiest households. Interestingly, the top marginal tax rate in 1979 was 70 percent, twice what it is today.

Image

Just to throw out some data...:)
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby joewp » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 15:53:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'E')qually distributing the resources/wealth forcibly is communism.

Unless you can convince the better half to work harder in order to subsidize the lesser half...I don't think it's going to work.

It's fine for a small village of engaged citizens to attempt Communism. But it doesn't work very well on the larger scale. Human corruption gets in the way.


I thought this was peakoil.com and we were supposed to realize that relocalizing was the way the future had to be. Large scale institutions of all kinds, but especially economic ones, are merely blips in the history of humanity.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby joewp » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 15:55:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')oneSnark has an interesting concept there. Jailing people for refusing to help people in need, I like it.

How is an ancient common law interesting? "willful or depraved indifference to human life" is manslaughter, a lesser form of felony murder, punishments vary from state to state.

If you find someone in the middle of the desert proclaiming that they are dying of thirst, and you drive away, and they die, you will be charged with murder. This concept has existed in english common law for many centuries. That you are just now hearing about it seems disingenuous.


Sorry, I guess the sarcasm didn't come through. I note that our current economic system causes people to die rather than helps them, as long as a profit can be made.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 16:14:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'E')qually distributing the resources/wealth forcibly is communism.

Unless you can convince the better half to work harder in order to subsidize the lesser half...I don't think it's going to work.

It's fine for a small village of engaged citizens to attempt Communism. But it doesn't work very well on the larger scale. Human corruption gets in the way.


I thought this was peakoil.com and we were supposed to realize that relocalizing was the way the future had to be. Large scale institutions of all kinds, but especially economic ones, are merely blips in the history of humanity.


So the question becomes, were small medieval villages communist?

What about the homesteaders/farmers of rural America in the 1800s?

People are willing to help out their neighbors, but not sacrifice for the sake of people who refuse to work.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby SteinarN » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 16:35:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'E')qually distributing the resources/wealth forcibly is communism.

Unless you can convince the better half to work harder in order to subsidize the lesser half...I don't think it's going to work.

It's fine for a small village of engaged citizens to attempt Communism. But it doesn't work very well on the larger scale. Human corruption gets in the way.


Think about it. Is it really the better half which is subsidizing the lesser half? Or could it be opposite? What if all the "lesser half" people suddenly disapeared. Who should then produce all the goods and services the better half consumes? If, on the other hand, all the better half people suddenly disapeared, then the lesser half people would have a lot more goods and services to consume as the better half people most likely stood for some lets say 80-90% of the total consumtion. I know the better half also produce something, some important engineering and some other important services in companies. But the overall consequence would be that the lesser half had a lot more available to consume if the better half suddenly disapeared.

In my opinion it is actually the lesser half which is, by their low wages, subsidizing the better half with their high wages. This is my opinion as long as the difference in wages is so large as it is in the US.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby joewp » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 16:53:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'j')oewp wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, fix the money system so money isn't created by debt (I seem to recall you're not convinced of this, but it remains a fact), that would help to remove the impetus to constant growth (which is impossible in a finite environment).


Actually Joe, it is the need to meet our basic needs - food, shelter, heat, cothing, etc. - that drives economic growth. Not money. As soon as we stop growing - or producing our daily bread - we die.


That's so not true. Many societies now and in the past have flourished without growth while supplying those basic needs quite well with less labor than we now must subject ourselves to. Today, growth is required by the fractional reserve banking system, because without it, the financial system (and the wealth of those running it) will collapse. The impetus for growth is actually to facilitate the concentration of wealth at the top.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Then equalize the field by taxing only those who can afford to be taxed, the rich, through their income and accumulated wealth.


In other words remove any incentive to work except for what you personally need to survive. I guess the old, infirm, mentally slow and physically challenged are in for a nasty surprise then when surplus production and wealth creation disappears!


Why? They were cared for in the past by their families and neighbors, why should that change in the future? It seems to me the capitalist economy that we now practice is the very thing that's giving them the nasty surprise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')In our current system the rich do pay most the taxes. In the UK, for example, the top one percent of earners pay 22% of the taxes. According to Tyler_JC a while ago the bottom quartile hardly pay any taxes in America. Low-income wage earners actually get tax credits and social assistance. Figuritively negative taxes.


You're talking about income taxes only. I'm talking about all taxes, from sales to tolls. If you add them all up, you'll find the poor and middle class pay most of the cost of government, and get few benefits at all.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Then remove all other taxes, like tolls, sales taxes, payroll taxes, property taxes, user fees, excise taxes on necessary goods and services like heat and food, etc, etc.

In other words remove the pricing that limits demand? So if supply is limited or finite, and you remove the pricing mechanism, you would create more demand. Demand would be in excess of available supply. You have not solved anything.


Pricing? Who said anything about pricing? I'm talking about all the so-called "nuisance taxes" that add up to a large percentage of people's incomes.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Redistribute the wealth to those in need, without creating debt. Giving each human on the planet his "share" of global oil production would result in about 1/2 a gallon of product each, quite enough to warm the coldest night.

Well, contrary to popular belief, natural resources may be 'free for the taking', but it costs time & money - land, labor, capital, know-how, technology and energy - to explore, drill, extract, transport, refine and distribute resources like energy, so you cannot give them away for 'free'. Ditto for clean drinking water and access to sanitation. They may be a basic human right, but they cannot be both free and freely available.


Funny thing is, the Native Americans didn't have to pay anybody for their water or sanitation or their energy. All the costs you list above are the result of overpopulation. Much of that overpopulation has been encouraged and sometimes even demanded by the so-called "leaders" of societies.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')If resources were distributed equally rather than being mostly hoarded by the few, most of the problems of humanity would be solved. Rather than having a world where some are freezing in the dark while others are wasting energy by snowmobiling or "off-roading", a better model would allocate by need first.


No goat herder in the sub-Sahara ever discovered oil under a mile of water off the coast of Africa and figured out how to extract it. Why would he have a claim on that energy? Or the profits from its exploitation?

But the fact is that host governments do take most of the value from oil and the extraction of natural resources in the form of royalty payments. It is then incumbant on those governments to use those royalties to help pay for local infrastructure and social programs.

It is not the responsibility of consumers in another country with their own governments to both pay for that energy or those resources AND pay for those social programs in that oil producing or resource exporting nation.

I think we can all be grateful that the average man in the street is not making offical policy and deciding how the world should be run! ; - )

Sorry, I'm not impressed by the system that the so-called "leaders" of the world have set up. It's completely unsustainable and is bound to crash hard, and probably sooner than later. The so-called "leaders" are running the world into the ground. The growth machine only benefits them, by stealing from future generations. We'll all pay for that.
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Re: US trade deficit declines in 2007, despite oil price jum

Unread postby joewp » Fri 22 Feb 2008, 19:25:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'E')qually distributing the resources/wealth forcibly is communism.

Unless you can convince the better half to work harder in order to subsidize the lesser half...I don't think it's going to work.

It's fine for a small village of engaged citizens to attempt Communism. But it doesn't work very well on the larger scale. Human corruption gets in the way.


I thought this was peakoil.com and we were supposed to realize that relocalizing was the way the future had to be. Large scale institutions of all kinds, but especially economic ones, are merely blips in the history of humanity.


So the question becomes, were small medieval villages communist?

What about the homesteaders/farmers of rural America in the 1800s?

People are willing to help out their neighbors, but not sacrifice for the sake of people who refuse to work.


To a point both were "communist" in a way. Although people didn't have that concept then, they called it "cooperation" and "helping each other". I don't know where you find people who "refuse to work". I think by far most people will work, given a chance and assured of adequate compensation. Even slaves at least got food, shelter and rudimentary health care for their labor. Many people hardly get that now from many jobs, hence the saying "The jobs Americans won't do (at that puny wage)".

And for people who can't work, I think then the golden rule comes into play. How would you like to be treated when old and/or infirm?
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Trade Deficits

Unread postby Stratovarius » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 15:34:33

I'm looking for a better understanding of how trade deficits effect a country, particularly the U.S.

I'm reading Mindful Economics (best book I've read in a while...) and in the chapter America's Umbilical Cord (aka the international economy), he writes:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he U.S. has essentially two choices when it incurs trade deficits: it can pay the deficit amount by depleting its foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank, the Federal Reserve System, or borrow from abroad. ... This is the preferred option [selling govt. bonds], although it can hold a financial crisis at a distance; it has long-term cumulative effects. Each year the U.S. experiences trade deficits, it goes deeper into debt, and it becomes more financially dependent on foreign countries.


This didn't make sense because it sounds like we're using debt to finance debt. I know bonds are common investments, but this sounds like a bad option considering how fast trade deficits are rising. A business will borrow if it wants to expand and thus the benefits will be greater, but it sounds like using debt to finance a rapidly growing deficit is just off-setting an inevitable demise.
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Re: Trade Deficits

Unread postby misterno » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 17:08:16

As long as China buys all US Treasury Bonds like they have been doing for the last 20 years, we are fine.
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Re: Trade Deficits

Unread postby Stratovarius » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 17:11:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'A')s long as China buys all US Treasury Bonds like they have been doing for the last 20 years, we are fine.


Haven't they been looking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from US bonds?

So maybe we're not fine.
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Re: Trade Deficits

Unread postby mattduke » Wed 19 Nov 2008, 17:30:17

As gold flows out of a country in deficit, there is less and less money in that country, and prices begin to fall there, until local prices are competitive with foreign prices, and trade becomes balanced again. But what if a country had an endless supply of gold to export? It could begin to import everything it wanted, and convert it's factories into golf courses. And then one day the trading partners realize that the unlimited amount of dollars actually makes them worthless, and the stop wanting them. And then they stop exporting to that country. And then the country finds itself with plenty of golf courses, but no means to produce shoes, nor means to pay to have shoes imported.
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Re: Trade Deficits

Unread postby misterno » Thu 20 Nov 2008, 23:58:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stratovarius', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'A')s long as China buys all US Treasury Bonds like they have been doing for the last 20 years, we are fine.


Haven't they been looking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from US bonds?

So maybe we're not fine.


If what you saying was true, USD would fall big time.

But the exactly opposite is happening. Please get your facts straight
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Re: Trade Deficits

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Fri 21 Nov 2008, 00:31:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stratovarius', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'A')s long as China buys all US Treasury Bonds like they have been doing for the last 20 years, we are fine.


Haven't they been looking to diversify their foreign exchange reserves away from US bonds?

So maybe we're not fine.


If what you saying was true, USD would fall big time.

But the exactly opposite is happening. Please get your facts straight


Not exactly...

The US dollar is strengthening because the rest of the world (not necessarily China) is buying US Treasury bonds in order to reduce their investment risk.

Think about it. You are a hedge fund manager and you notice that growth in the Mumbai housing market or the crude oil futures market or the FTSE or whatever is declining. It's not just declining, it's crashing! Emerging markets are falling at 10%/month. It's time to move your money (or what's left of it) elsewhere.

Where do you go?

Buying dollars is a flight to quality.

In the short term, the dollar strengthens.

In the longer term, risk will subside and investors will begin looking for higher returns. They will move their money out of the United States...and that will sink the dollar.
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Trade deficit rises unexpectedly

Unread postby errorist » Thu 11 Dec 2008, 14:56:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')On Wednesday, the Bush administration criticized China for slowing the pace at which its currency was rising in value against the dollar, but announced that it had decided not to cite China as a currency manipulator. A citation would have triggered negotiations between the two nations.



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US has larger trade deficit than all other nations combined

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 13 Dec 2008, 08:07:13

The CIA World Factbook has an interesting list entitled "Rank Order - Current account balance." The list ranks 188 nations by their balance of payments. These balance of payments amount to an aggregate of trade surplus / debt for goods and services.

The nations at the top of the list are creditor nations, those lower down are debtor nations.

As you might guess, China is the richest nation on Earth as far as current account balance: $371.8 billion. Here's the other top four:

2 Germany $ 254,500,000,000
3 Japan $ 210,500,000,000
4 Saudi Arabia $ 86,620,000,000
5 Russia $ 78,310,000,000

In the 188-long list of nations, the debtor nations begin at #68 (Guinea-Bissau, -6 million trade deficit). The second largest debtor nation in the world is Spain, at $145.3 billion deficit. The US is at the bottom of the rank order, coming in at $731.2 billion. Interestingly, this figure is slightly greater than all other debtor nation deficits *combined*.

Who knows for certain what the future holds for creditor and debtors, exporters and importers. But looking at this list, one has to realize nations like Germany have done something right post WWII -- a whopping $254 bil surplus, compared to our $731.2 deficit. They've somehow managed that *and* universal health care and social safety nets.

Even France is 4 times better off than the UK, a similar sized population.

What do you guys think? These rankings mean anything in the big scheme of things?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 7rank.html
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Re: US has larger trade deficit than all other nations combi

Unread postby CarlosFerreira » Sat 13 Dec 2008, 08:18:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sixstrings', 'T')he CIA World Factbook has an interesting list entitled "Rank Order - Current account balance." The list ranks 188 nations by their balance of payments. These balance of payments amount to an aggregate of trade surplus / debt for goods and services.

The nations at the top of the list are creditor nations, those lower down are debtor nations.

As you might guess, China is the richest nation on Earth as far as current account balance: $371.8 billion. Here's the other top four:

2 Germany $ 254,500,000,000
3 Japan $ 210,500,000,000
4 Saudi Arabia $ 86,620,000,000
5 Russia $ 78,310,000,000

In the 188-long list of nations, the debtor nations begin at #68 (Guinea-Bissau, -6 million trade deficit). The second largest debtor nation in the world is Spain, at $145.3 billion deficit. The US is at the bottom of the rank order, coming in at $731.2 billion. Interestingly, this figure is slightly greater than all other debtor nation deficits *combined*.

Who knows for certain what the future holds for creditor and debtors, exporters and importers. But looking at this list, one has to realize nations like Germany have done something right post WWII -- a whopping $254 bil surplus, compared to our $731.2 deficit. They've somehow managed that *and* universal health care and social safety nets.

Even France is 4 times better off than the UK, a similar sized population.

What do you guys think? These rankings mean anything in the big scheme of things?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 7rank.html


Thanks for the link, it was really informative.

Just a note on Germany; they are also the largest contributor to the EU. They've been giving money away to other countries in the Union. Of course, they export stuff to those countries, but still that deserves pointing out.

Fiscal prudence does help, after all! :wink:
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