[heroineworshipper]

Yesterday's downgrade of Freddie Fannie caused a 5% rise. When social security goes, that's going to be a 1000% rise.

[TreebeardsUncle]

Said q2 09. Oil falls in the late summer and fall, and starts coming back in the winter. By next spring we should be on the next big ramp up which will lead to the price surpassing $200, in the summer of 010, after another drop off next late summer fall and early winter.

g

[Oil_be_alroit]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'M')y bet is that the tiny upticks we're going to see over the coming year, are going to be tiny bubbles fueled by geopolitical news. All these bubbles will be occuring on a grand downward trend to $70-80.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoghGoner', 'W')ith the airlines, car industry, truckers, governments going broke at 120-140 oil, I don't see it making it past the 160 mark until supply (world exports) fall quite a bit more -- I guess 2010 Q3 but it could come a year earlier or a two years later depending on how the geopolitical factors weigh in.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote(' ', '
')

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'C')onservation and efficiency will just lead to the use of more oil, not less. Ever hear of William Jevons and his paradox?

[lorenzo]

Sorry, just because we can. It seems like we haven't bottomed out anywhere yet.

As an example of the art of repeating onesself, here a new poll: when will oil prices drop below $40 per barrel?

Take into account a spreading recession and massive demand destruction, Iraq's recent revelation (bigger reserves than SA), Brazil's huge finds, and America's new investments in drill, drill, drill baby, drill.

Some of these have an effect today, some have an indirect effect but already influence the idea that we're going to face massive overproduction of oil for many years to come.


I know, I know, this is all very painful for the PO plebs.

[lorenzo]

Sorry, hadn't seen this poll: http://peakoil.com/fortopic47109.html

Which asks about $50pb.

Please close this poll. Thx.

[FireJack]

" Iraq's recent revelation (bigger reserves than SA), Brazil's huge finds"


I'm calling bullshit on that. I bet that if iraq's or SA's actual known reserves were generally known (and all of opec for that matter) oil would probably skyrocket up to $600 a barrel and cause a lot of concern. Actual production has not increased and I'm betting it never will.

IMO oil is dropping because investors are selling energy stocks to make up for losses elsewhere. If it got to the point where they had to sell it at a loss then they could say fuck you we ain't selling you oil till it goes up again.

[smallpoxgirl]

It's really all about the dollar. Deflation vs. Inflation and when. Hard to say. We are in a heavily deflationary period right now. I think that will probably reverse, but it's hard to say when.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', 'I')'m calling bullshit on that. I bet that if iraq's or SA's actual known reserves were generally known (and all of opec for that matter) oil would probably skyrocket up to $600 a barrel and cause a lot of concern. Actual production has not increased and I'm betting it never will.

[threadbear]

If deflation continues, $40.00 is possible before Christmas. It seems crazy, but if there is massive unemployment, very little circulating cash, 40.00 becomes a lot of money.

The oil producing nations are going to start getting desperate and begin to undercut each other, driving prices down further. If they do manage a coordinated effort to keep prices at the 70.00 U.S mark, in an atmosphere of economic collapse, they risk war. Because 70.00 today, could have a much more negative impact on the world, than 147.00 did, just a few months ago.

[Dont_Panic]

Also, OPEC are meeting tomorrow. I think that'll lead to a recovery short term, but it might start sliding again... or going up... I just don't know.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')f deflation continues, $40.00 is possible before Christmas. It seems crazy, but if there is massive unemployment, very little circulating cash, 40.00 becomes a lot of money.

[KevO]

I can say categorically that OPEC will NEVER let oil fall below $60 for more than a few days as most middle eastern countries budgets and Nigeria's are base on oil being at or nearabouts $65 and as those countries produce the oil that runs their budgets they hold the reins on the price. They'll simply keep cutting and cutting production.
I expect at least a 1mbpd cut this week if not 2

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'I') can say categorically that OPEC will NEVER let oil fall below $60 for more than a few days as most middle eastern countries budgets and Nigeria's are base on oil being at or nearabouts $65 and as those countries produce the oil that runs their budgets they hold the reins on the price. They'll simply keep cutting and cutting production.
I expect at least a 1mbpd cut this week if not 2

[lorenzo]

Okay, so maybe we should revive this thread?


My bet on $40 before the end of the year's still standing.

It's a bit easy now and boring, but hey, we got the server space, so why not use it?

[copious.abundance]

Only $8 more to go!

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', 'O')nly $8 more to go!

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I')f deflation continues, $40.00 is possible before Christmas. It seems crazy, but if there is massive unemployment, very little circulating cash, 40.00 becomes a lot of money.