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Oil War? Not too plausible.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Fri 24 Oct 2008, 00:41:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '
')The American efforts post 2003 are yet to run there course. Dont be too cock sure about the result yet.

Indeed. Geopolitical strategy a la "The Grand Chessboard" has a time horizon of decades, not merely a few years.
"Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby bodhinagami » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 19:36:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gandolf', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'G')oing back to the early days of peak oil and this forum, the doomers have consistently pushed the idea that nations will go to war for oil.


Most importantly: If the U.S. is going to wage war for oil, why are they going to select a highly reasonable, nice guy like Barack Obama as the president? Obama seems like a pretty unlikely choice if you're looking for a warmonger to fight over oil.


I am not sure if you have been reading the papers latley but America is already involved in oil wars..... It's called Iraq

And the only reason that Bush didnt invade Iran was that the dumb sh#t has finnaly worked out that america is bankrupt and cant afford it.


Indeed.
U$A will have the same fate as UR$$: division and a 1-way (no return) journey to irrelevance (on going process, UR$$ is still somewhat relevant).

I can say with certainty: the doomers are exagerating, but the cornucopian fanta$y is bull$hit. 2012 cult and peak oil cult are "eating lies". There will NOT be an "end of the world". However homo "sapiens sapiens" can still go extinct. I am looking forward to when this "humanity vrs nature" fal$e war will END.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby bodhinagami » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 19:41:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'A')t least for countries. It's been pretty positive for others. The majors are in one of the most oil rich areas of the globe for the first time in a few decades. I bet they're pretty happy about the investment in Dubbya.


And the majors are?
Another clich'ed conspiracy theory of "those in power"?

Power is not in the hands of those you think it is.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby bodhinagami » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 19:45:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Note that all the major "oil wars" of recent history have been futile. Japan fought for oil, and lost. Germany fought for oil, and lost. Sadam invaded Kuwait for oil, and lost. The U.S. invaded Iraq, and got financially bled to death. Fighting for oil doesn't seem to pay.


Those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.


There is also the question of options. Given the historical situation for the first two of three, what other option did they have? Germany and Japan faced the possibility of slowly bleeding to death in another fashion.

Nations (and people) often choose what seems like the least bad idea. People, in all times, have suffered from being overly optimistic. My classic example is Shakesperre's Brutus, who allows Marc Antony to speak at Caesar's funeral and, thus, sets into motion the events that leads to his own death.

Have wars for natural resources ever been successful? As long as there are examples of successful wars the power of positive thinking will unite with the "least bad" option and lead nations to act.

None of us can know what the future holds. We can only hope to know the kind of creature men are, the situation in which we find ourselves and make judgments.


Don't assume anything about all humanity.

Budas/Buddhas are considered part of another real of consciousness/mind/spirit than (common) humans.

It's payback time for Dharma,
karma my fellow posters ^_^_^
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby bodhinagami » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 19:48:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')nother data point...

Note that all the major "oil wars" of recent history have been futile. Japan fought for oil, and lost. Germany fought for oil, and lost. Sadam invaded Kuwait for oil, and lost. The U.S. invaded Iraq, and got financially bled to death. Fighting for oil doesn't seem to pay.


So you lead off ridiculing those who suggest the possibility of oil wars, then cite a series of historical examples of same? Duh...OK.

If you're counting on modern leaders to have learned the lessons of history, all I have to say is HAHAHAHAHAHA. :lol:
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:


Contemporary leaders are not sitting in chairs shuffling papers or saluting other desk shufflers. Presidents are not contemporary leaders.

Contemporary leaders are WORKING on changing the world. Contemporary leaders are shaping with their acts the shared reality.

Budas (spagnolo) are natural leaders; I chosed priorities wisely. First Nirvana, then everything else ^_^_^
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby bodhinagami » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 19:52:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'A')nother data point...

Note that all the major "oil wars" of recent history have been futile. Japan fought for oil, and lost. Germany fought for oil, and lost. Sadam invaded Kuwait for oil, and lost. The U.S. invaded Iraq, and got financially bled to death. Fighting for oil doesn't seem to pay.


It appears to have been a cripplingly expensive strategic blunder. One can only wonder how it might have gone down had Ike Eisenhower been Defense Secretary.

Back in 2003, it seemed reasonable to forecast a draft - as Ruppert and others had siad there would be. After all, if you are are going to invade a country and seize control of it, you had better overwhelm its people before they can organize resistance. How else are you going to subdue a large country like Iraq and force it to sue for peace quickly?

The US did not do militarily necessary things. In fact, it seemed to make a series of amateurish mistakes that ensured a festering quagmire. In some respects, America attempted to do everything on the cheap; in other respects it threw money at the war as if it were deliberately committing financial hari-kari.

I still don't believe all that nonsense about WMD - the weapons inspectors were pooh-poohing that whole bogus line of sh*t for months before the invasion. I still don't believe that people in the White House and Pentagon thought that a hated foreign invader could actually tame a piece of the Middle East and institute Democracy through force, converting it into a friendly client-state virtually overnight.

The whole thing has always been very puzzling. However, control over oil remains the best hypothesis for the war. If peak oil were foreseen by the Anglo-American powers-that-be, then their assuming control of the last immense cheap-oil province left on the planet can be understood as a way to assure American economic and strategic dominance well into the 21st century.

Yet, the war seems to be ending in a long, slow whimper. As hard as it is to believe, could it be that the war was just a colossal waste of money and lives? An adventure of pure stupidity?

How do YOU explain the Iraq War? How do you think future historians will explain it?


Wisely and well said =)

Iraq War = Vietnam 2.0

hippies are now junkies so they are out of the picture.

Communists hate others and invented a "war of classes".

So that basically leaves us: anarchists, pacifists and specially environmentalists. ^_^_^
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby DryGuy » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 20:28:01

You dismiss Iraq as a lost Oil war. Why? It's not the oil we got so far it's the oil we are GOING to get. The US and the "new Iraq" will be partnered for quite awile. We get plenty of cheap oil and they will get tech and intel. The top shelf US made arms will flow into Iraq ($) and they will be the US backed power in the region. My .02
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby Northern_Pike » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 21:38:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')Given how successful Japan has become since losing WWII, despite their paucity of natural resources, I'd say they had options.


Post WW2 Japan had an abundant wealth of resources to use to become an industrial powerhouse. However, all those resources were gleaned from the U.S. to the benefit of both nations. All things considered, I would say Japan came out fairing pretty well on the symbiotic relationship. They no longer felt the need to acquire raw materials via expansionist invasion. This allowed many a young Japanese male to grow old, rather than fight to the death upon a foreign soil.

Now the U.S. has an ally in the region that can be called upon to assist in steering some possible regional events in a U.S. favorable direction. I could think of no people that I would rather have as an ally then the Japanese. I would much rather fight along side them than fight against them. Their honor, tenacity, and valor is second to none. One only need read their WW2 history for countless examples.

For a long time, if nothing else, the U.S. had a staging area for any Asiatic military campaigns. Lately, Japan is growing into a substantial force in its own right. Also, postwar Japan has developed into a healthy trade partner, perhaps coming out on top of that deal as well.

Only seventy short years later, Japan is a full-grown adult nation, independent and mature. It has from its rebirth, through its adolescence, and into its maturation, the U.S. to thank for its growth, although few would give the U.S. any credit, perhaps least of all the Japanese.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DryGuy', 'Y')ou dismiss Iraq as a lost Oil war. Why? It's not the oil we got so far it's the oil we are GOING to get. The US and the "new Iraq" will be partnered for quite awile. We get plenty of cheap oil and they will get tech and intel. The top shelf US made arms will flow into Iraq ($) and they will be the US backed power in the region. My .02


+1
Well thought out, DryGuy. Who said the U.S. needs to get free oil to get any benefit from the Iraq War? Perhaps just having access to foreign oil at all, even at a price, will be a huge benefit in the future.

- Pike
Matthew 24:1- 24:51
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 03:22:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')There is also the question of options. Given the historical situation for the first two of three, what other option did they have?


Given how successful Japan has become since losing WWII, despite their paucity of natural resources, I'd say they had options.


Options which they could not see earlier. If we lack the cultural resources to "see" an option it is the same as if the option did not exist. Having your nation leveled sparks some creativity.

Also note the differences in the pre-war and post war economy. It is very possible that the post war options were not available in 1936.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 03:26:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bodhinagami', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')Note that all the major "oil wars" of recent history have been futile. Japan fought for oil, and lost. Germany fought for oil, and lost. Sadam invaded Kuwait for oil, and lost. The U.S. invaded Iraq, and got financially bled to death. Fighting for oil doesn't seem to pay.


Those who don't learn from the past are doomed to repeat it.


There is also the question of options. Given the historical situation for the first two of three, what other option did they have? Germany and Japan faced the possibility of slowly bleeding to death in another fashion.

Nations (and people) often choose what seems like the least bad idea. People, in all times, have suffered from being overly optimistic. My classic example is Shakesperre's Brutus, who allows Marc Antony to speak at Caesar's funeral and, thus, sets into motion the events that leads to his own death.

Have wars for natural resources ever been successful? As long as there are examples of successful wars the power of positive thinking will unite with the "least bad" option and lead nations to act.

None of us can know what the future holds. We can only hope to know the kind of creature men are, the situation in which we find ourselves and make judgments.


Don't assume anything about all humanity.

Budas/Buddhas are considered part of another real of consciousness/mind/spirit than (common) humans.

It's payback time for Dharma,
karma my fellow posters ^_^_^


Individuals may prove exceptional. The population as a whole proves itself typical.

I cannot really know any one man or woman. I can have a feeling for the type of animal humans are.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Thu 20 Nov 2008, 09:25:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'G')oing back to the early days of peak oil and this forum, the doomers have consistently pushed the idea that nations will go to war for oil.

This hasn't always gone well.


saying oil war is not too plausible, is like saying pro surfing is "not too plausible" - with the Triple Crown in Hawaii just starting up. (OK, not everybody listens to pro surfing.)

if Oil War is "not too plausible", please explain how the Iraq War is not an oil war.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby Snik » Thu 20 Nov 2008, 18:10:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'G')oing back to the early days of peak oil and this forum, the doomers have consistently pushed the idea that nations will go to war for oil.

This hasn't always gone well.


saying oil war is not too plausible, is like saying pro surfing is "not too plausible" - with the Triple Crown in Hawaii just starting up. (OK, not everybody listens to pro surfing.)

if Oil War is "not too plausible", please explain how the Iraq War is not an oil war.


If it is, we've done a damn poor job of it, especially since China swooped in and took some of the most lucrative oil contracts right out from under our noses after the Democrats in Congress nixed any American companies getting them.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/P ... 4iglgp.asp
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby HankScorpio » Thu 27 Nov 2008, 16:22:30

Resource wars are already starting. Why do you think N.K. is closing border to S.K. next week?

Peace doesnt look good with the situation in Georgia and the Russians. Looks like <somebody> influenced their government to make attacks on Russians. America is doing its part whether they know it or not. Pirates will continue to take ships and hold them ransom and get the money. Islam will attack anybody if they look like pirates. the first ship they shot down wasnt even pirates it was pure agression. CIA may be still working with them lol.

The world is always at war. Don't you like your shadow government and now shadow economy. Historically were fucked and theres no turning back now. That was about 2 months ago before the '700 billion' bailout plan. 60% of US gdp was injected into markets. this is a controlled depression just like the 20s.

im not a doomer im just making observations.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 10:28:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('HankScorpio', ' ')

im not a doomer im just making observations.


Thats what all the Doomers say, they are tricky that way.

"Its not ME predicting the end of the world, its that other really smart, creative, experienced and talented guy who once speculated that the sun would rise tomorrow, so he must be right!, and I'm just repeating what HE said!"
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby Alcassin » Tue 02 Dec 2008, 20:49:28

@Carlhole,

Good question: what does Iraq War mean, and how it can be explained. For me, as for you, oil plays a major factor in this war, but not to steal this oil... I don't think robbery was the cause. It's about control.

United States have many bases in almost all Gulf States, including KSA. Why? Most of the governments are very weak in this region - Saud familiy is unpopular, and I think for years to come Iraqi government will be weak and torned. Presence of foreign military is crucial for them to retain in power.
What we observe in case of KSA this kind of help is mutual interest - American government waging "war on terror" gives an explanation to fight the political oppostion there (especially when most of them are islamists) which, in case of victory, may shut the oil installation, and expel American contractors of Aramco.
Petrodollars then are recycled as a credit to American economy...

In case of Iraq, I don't think the US is going to return completely and abandon 14 permament bases. This would be stupid, as US military is a guarantee of protection (both military and politicallly) for American contractors. In my opinion Iraq War is much more corporate war, than nation state war.
I don't think the goal was however to privitize oil fields, but truly when you think who is profiteering from this war, and the first one to think about is Halliburton you find it quite puzzling.

Almost all of the corporations taking part in the rebuilding of Iraq are American and British companies. Poland, as one of invading countries, tried to take part in this, but Polish companies were never properly informed, never prepared, and so on. From some business circles leaked an opinion that most of the deals are in reality informally arranged; and there is no real transparency in the process.

There are political goals of the war, but I would never write off economic factors.

And clearly, I don't buy "WMD" argument and I don't buy "democracy and freedom" argument. The bottomline question is, how many lobbyists do you need to wage a war against a powerless country?
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Mon 15 Dec 2008, 22:16:39

Gee, JD...one would have thought that by now you would have a grasp of a fairly well-known trusim: scarcity breeds poverty and poverty breeds conflict.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby shortonsense » Mon 15 Dec 2008, 22:37:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'G')ee, JD...one would have thought that by now you would have a grasp of a fairly well-known trusim: scarcity breeds poverty and poverty breeds conflict.


Monte! Welcome back from your banning.. Now that peak oil is over, whats going to be the game now? Peak solar? :-D
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:19:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')Monte! Welcome back from your banning.. Now that peak oil is over, whats going to be the game now? Peak solar? :-D


Peak in the ability to grow the economy.
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 00:25:32

Monte, nice to see you around.

We've got about half of the regulars on walkabout right now, so it's nice to see you posting.
:)
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Re: Oil War? Not too plausible.

Unread postby shortonsense » Tue 16 Dec 2008, 01:07:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonsense', ' ')Monte! Welcome back from your banning.. Now that peak oil is over, whats going to be the game now? Peak solar? :-D


Peak in the ability to grow the economy.


Oh THAT old strawman? We solved it while you were away.

Got anything new, or is the next thing going to just be a run of the mill recession = depression routine?
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