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Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT bad?

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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 21:46:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pedalling_faster', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')hings have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse.


get worse ? the disintegration of a system that supports 750+ military bases around the world, is not necessarily bad, or worse.

the slowing down of a system built largely on American technologies, which pollute the F*ck out of the place we need to live, is not bad either.

if there is a Gaia, or a God, he/she/they might consider the changes we're witnessing a genuine cause for celebration.

an an example of the American technologies that pollute,
#1 the citizens of Sunnyvale had their drinking water polluted by AMD. a big class action suit in the '80's or early '90's. now that pollution has merely been exported.
#2 the surfboard industry.

it is such a farce to hear web announcers talk about their surfing events being green, considering the way surfboards are manufactured. polyurethane foam, TDI (where "I" stands for isocyanate) - 2 things you don't want in your biosphere, 2 things that have been exported with the closure of Clark Foam (they made the millions of foam blanks used by the surfboard industry, and were located in Irvine, CA).

i would be just as happy with slower silicon built using organic circuit boards, spectating surf contests surfed on wood boards, instead of epoxy or polyurethane.

but less-polluting electronics, an American foreign policy that practices the peace it preaches, and wood surfboards, i guess, are less profitable.


I agree with the essence of your post.

Unfortunately, the massive coming disruptions in civilization could, and I believe will, lead to even greater environmental despoliation. We will wreck most of it and then we will die off.

More and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration. That is where history is inevitably leading. For some reason, many POers discount this possibility. A huge oversight IMO.

Probably life will pick up the pieces and evolution will resume, but it's gonna take millions of years for the earth to resemble anything like the way we found it.

Let's put it this way: For the rest of our lives and well beyond, things will continue to get worse. ALL things.
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"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Woodenpaddler » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 22:39:29

I would have said slow decline due to peak oil until I became aware recently of the fragility of our leveraged world economies. There aren't enough buyers out there for all the treasury bills our government will have to sell, even if every other country still keeps faith in the US. If I wasn't fully aware of the economic risks, what is out there that we still aren't expecting or are aware of that will be even worse?

There's a small possibilty things won't be that bad if we all put every bit of our personal energy and creativity to solving the enormous challenges ahead. But the chances of that happening are even smaller; frankly, of all the friends and family I've tried to explain what the risks are to NOT ONE has got it yet.
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Polemic » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 22:56:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
Unfortunately, the massive coming disruptions in civilization could, and I believe will, lead to even greater environmental despoliation. We will wreck most of it and then we will die off.


Absolutely. I often contemplate how many more wild animals will be decimated and go extinct. How many more forests chopped down. It pains me. Even the demise of the domestic pet population saddens me.

And all for nothing. It didn't have to be this way. But people are stupid.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')More and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration. That is where history is inevitably leading. For some reason, many POers discount this possibility. A huge oversight IMO.


I agree.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Probably life will pick up the pieces and evolution will resume, but it's gonna take millions of years for the earth to resemble anything like the way we found it.

Let's put it this way: For the rest of our lives and well beyond, things will continue to get worse. ALL things.


It might not be that bad. A lot of people outside of blast zones would survive -- albeit with an unhealthy exposure to radiation.

Got Potassium Iodide?
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby seazar » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 23:14:17

I have mine - got it from nukepills.com
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Heineken » Sun 16 Nov 2008, 23:20:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Polemic', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
Unfortunately, the massive coming disruptions in civilization could, and I believe will, lead to even greater environmental despoliation. We will wreck most of it and then we will die off.


Absolutely. I often contemplate how many more wild animals will be decimated and go extinct. How many more forests chopped down. It pains me. Even the demise of the domestic pet population saddens me.

And all for nothing. It didn't have to be this way. But people are stupid.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')More and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration. That is where history is inevitably leading. For some reason, many POers discount this possibility. A huge oversight IMO.


I agree.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Probably life will pick up the pieces and evolution will resume, but it's gonna take millions of years for the earth to resemble anything like the way we found it.

Let's put it this way: For the rest of our lives and well beyond, things will continue to get worse. ALL things.


It might not be that bad. A lot of people outside of blast zones would survive -- albeit with an unhealthy exposure to radiation.

Got Potassium Iodide?


Polemic, have you read "The Road"? (By Cormac McCarthy.) Just fiction, of course.

I have trouble buying the now prevalent theory that a major nuclear exchange would be survivable by humans. I don't think the Chernobyl experience is a good test at all.

The theory that we can survive a major nuclear war seems suspiciously similar to the theory that the risk of such a war is and will remain minimal.
"Actually, humans died out long ago."
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"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Polemic » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 00:03:57

No I haven't read it; but I've read about it, on this site and probably others.

It seems to me that full-blown nuclear Armageddon isn't in anyone's best interest, and if the nukes are going to fly, it will just be a few of them, and not all of them. But who knows? Maybe we're dealing with total psychopaths who think they can ride out the worst of it underground for 5 years or something.
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Pops » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 00:36:19

The funny thing about the replies to this thread and so many others here is it is all about the Other.

Whether the Other is the economy, the banker, the government, the Terrorist, the neighbor with a different opinion or just Things.

Things are in your hands, people.

Either take your life in your hands, do something with it and then tell us about it, or sit there with your hand out and silently wait.


Sorry, a little harsh....
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 00:55:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he funny thing about the replies to this thread and so many others here is it is all about the Other.

Whether the Other is the economy, the banker, the government, the Terrorist, the neighbor with a different opinion or just Things.

Things are in your hands, people.

Either take your life in your hands, do something with it and then tell us about it, or sit there with your hand out and silently wait.


My main beef is with OTHER people who think that life is in their hands and that there is anything that is within their power to do that would turn the tidal wave of human history.

Therefore, I will take into my own hands the responsibility of telling OTHER people that Canning Vegetables might give you a few extra sunrises to enjoy, but its about as inneffectual a plan as chatting with friends about what the nature of the causes of the disaster are.

I get just a little tired of being told from the moral highground of Prepperville that unless you are currently splitting wood and milking the cows that discussing the fundamental nature of the social collapse is a meaningless pursuit. For many people here, the discussions held about permaculture are quite meaningless to them. How DARE anyone have such hubris as to be so dismissive of the concerns of others by persistently belittling this pursuit as not worthwhile?

Its NOT all in your hands, it never was and never will be. It is worthwhile to comtemplate the underlying nature of things even if they are not in your hands however.

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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Pops » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 01:33:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', 'H')ow DARE anyone have such hubris as to be so dismissive of the concerns of others by persistently belittling this pursuit as not worthwhile?

Of which pursuit?

Contemplating the fundamental nature of the social collapse?

You are just jerking my chain, right?

You really think "discussing the fundamental nature of the social collapse" makes you more giving and humble than others?

That a rhetorical emphasis on what we can't do is better than encouraging what we can do as individuals and citizens?

That "discussing the fundamental nature of the social collapse" is a greater pursuit than discussing the fundamental nature of social cohesion?


Don't give me any how dare yous, hubris bs RE, it just makes people laugh.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 01:54:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')Don't give me any how dare yous, hubris bs RE, it just makes people laugh.


I enjoy making people laugh Pops :-)

In any event, I think BOTH pursuits have their value and that a person should Mutitask. I'm not raining on the Prepper Parade, why do you find it necessary to rain on the parade of the theoretical Doomers all the time? Every time a good Doom discussion comes up, you have to come in and tell everyone to STOP discussing Doom and start Canning Vegetables? What if you have all the Mountain House food you can FIT in your cabin? You have to do SOMETHING with your Sunday Evening! I suppose I could go outside and split some wood, but its pretty cold out there tonight and if the heat goes out I have enough propane for my camping heater to make it through next month, so I'll split the wood when I need it.

To get back to the point of the OP, it IS of course possible that things won't get "that" bad, as in the close to Worst Case Scenario General Green posted in another thread. What you can personally DO to stop them from getting that bad is something of a rhetorical question. Will taking part in Demonstrations prevent things from getting that bad? Will bombarding your Congressman and Senators with email prevent them from getting that bad?Will electing Obama prevent them from getting that bad? Will Canning Veggies from getting that bad? If its a Cascade that cannot be stopped or slowed, NOTHING will prevent it from getting that bad. However, you won't have a clue as to what MIGHT be effective if you don't analyze the problem in detail, and that is what Doom threads DO. So you ARE doing something when you contribute to these threads. Is it as effective as Canning Veggies? Who knows? Its interesting reading though, think of how dull the PO board would be without the great Doom of the past written by such notables as MonteQuest and Roccman!

There should be a place for everyone on the PO board, Doomer and Preppers alike, to write in freedom without having their respective Parades rained on. That is all I am saying here.

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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby bromius » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 02:49:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')More and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration. That is where history is inevitably leading. For some reason, many POers discount this possibility. A huge oversight IMO.

Probably life will pick up the pieces and evolution will resume, but it's gonna take millions of years for the earth to resemble anything like the way we found it.

Let's put it this way: For the rest of our lives and well beyond, things will continue to get worse. ALL things.


I don't worry about the nuclear scenario. If it happens, its one possibility I have a simple, concrete plan for. The day that news comes down is the day many of my worries cease.
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby careinke » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 03:12:22

I think I'm a Doomer AND a Prepper. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 03:44:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')More and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration. That is where history is inevitably leading. For some reason, many POers discount this possibility. A huge oversight IMO.

I like to remind that subject from time to time but it is not being followed by others.

It seems to me that part of members hope that PTB would be frightened to set of full blown exchange.

Other part believe that it is not worth to discuss how world after exchange would look like because it would be so hopelessly miserable that there are no merits to discuss it in detail.

I also believe that massive nuclear confrontation is a high probability scenario within coming decade.

I think, in all probabilities there will be many survivors and at current levels of arsenals extinction of humanity would not result.
On the other hand extinction of technological civilization certainly would result.

So I have some sodium iodide, cysteine and glutathione just in case.
They cost next to nothing and properly stored are indefinitely stable for all practical purposes.
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Zardoz » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 03:51:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')ore and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration.

Why do believe that ?

Why would we nuke the Russians, only to be nuked ourselves? Why would we nuke anybody, knowing full well that eventually, one way or another, we would be nuked in retaliation?

And what would be gained by using our nuclear weapons, anyway? What would be the point? What benefit would we see from it?

The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction works. It works perfectly. It always has, and it always will.
"Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby idiom » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 04:18:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')ore and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration.

Why do believe that ?

Why would we nuke the Russians, only to be nuked ourselves? Why would we nuke anybody, knowing full well that eventually, one way or another, we would be nuked in retaliation?

And what would be gained by using our nuclear weapons, anyway? What would be the point? What benefit would we see from it?


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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 04:23:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('careinke', 'I') think I'm a Doomer AND a Prepper. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Cliff (Start a rEVOLution, grow a garden)


+1
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby canuckinczech » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 04:33:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RdSnt', 'I') regard that current attempts to cover over the financial disaster we are in as the WCOTC "Willy Coyote Over The Cliff" moment. You know that moment when he is suspended in mid-air, just before he looks down and then plummets.




Doesn't the roadrunner always getaway happy and unhurt....

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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby canuckinczech » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 04:43:57

A good friend of mine is a jack-of-all trades and as he says...,"What should I be worried about, this is my time, in the world that lays before us...the survivalists will be king!".
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 09:30:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'T')he funny thing about the replies to this thread and so many others here is it is all about the Other.

Whether the Other is the economy, the banker, the government, the Terrorist, the neighbor with a different opinion or just Things.

Things are in your hands, people.

Either take your life in your hands, do something with it and then tell us about it, or sit there with your hand out and silently wait.


Sorry, a little harsh....


"I have the power to stop the nukes from flying. I shall sweep my arms about, so, and stop them dead in flight. I am EMPOWERED, gawddangit."

Thanks Pops. I feel empowered now.
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"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
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Re: Do you think there's a possibility things won't be THAT

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 17 Nov 2008, 09:34:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')ore and more, I believe we're headed for nuclear conflagration.

Why do believe that ?

Why would we nuke the Russians, only to be nuked ourselves? Why would we nuke anybody, knowing full well that eventually, one way or another, we would be nuked in retaliation?

And what would be gained by using our nuclear weapons, anyway? What would be the point? What benefit would we see from it?

The concept of Mutually Assured Destruction works. It works perfectly. It always has, and it always will.


You are asking rational questions that, alas, do not reliably apply to an irrational species, Zardoz.

More and more nations (and groups, even) will have access to these weapons. Political and environmental conditions will trend toward greater and greater destabilization (e.g., resource wars). Now, connect the dots.
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