PeakOil is You
THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merged) A
Re: IEA's World Energy Report 2008
by ReverseEngineer » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 05:59:42
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')sn't. Conservation and rationing could save millions of barrels. Big spanner in the works of course is the economic displacement that occurs when so much discretionary driving ends; example I use with people is the zitfarms selling corn dogs in a mall's food mart. Who's going to drive to malls anymore, much less spend excess money while they're there? Buses go to these places as well but the added time in using MT will deter those who have little time to spare owing to family obligations and the like. People will pull through but so much service economy employment will fizzle out; this recession is chewing that up already with oil at major lows.
Much more than the absolute DISAPPEARANCE of oil off the face of the earth, the BIGGER question we face is the Economic Dislocation resulting from the fact that Oil is not a CHEAP source of energy anymore. The banking system and monetary system depended on ever expanding debt that could be paid off wit growth off CHEAP oil, which no longer exists. Its this crash which threatesn us much more directly than an absolute disappearance of Oil from the face of the earth, which won't happen really for years, especialy taking into account demand destruction and die off.
Although a monetary system breakdown could in theory empty the supermarket shelves in a matter of weeks, the fact is the productive capacity and the actual food in storage lasts much longer than that for the society at large. Even assuming say a 10% one year reduction in the overall harvest, Americans probably consume 20% more food than they need, explaining of course the rampant obesity of the population. I honestly do not think it would be that hard to dump food production off the trade grid and run this particular portion of society socialistically through a food credits program. If the will is to do that, the productive capacity is there to do it, without any input from foreign sources of money.
The problem I see is a lack of consenssus and true understanding of the problems and the reasons for them; no true understanding i most people of the nature of banking and of the inherent greed and flaws in the capitalist system and market economy. That lack of understanding is rampant on the board here, it goes to the concepts of wealth and ownership which people here educated under these ideas simply cannot let go of. Unless we can GET them to understand the nature of their greed and the fundamental fallacy of living at the expense of another, then we cannot repair the system, though it is reperable in theory. Its the greedy who prevent that from happening, its those who believe that one person can and should live at the expense of another. That is FUNDAMENTAL EVIL, and it must be exterminated as a thought process. It is the though process of a corrupt and evil mind. Not that hard to do either, if you have the will as a community to do so. The poor always outnumber the rich by orders of magnitude. Just a matter of bringing them together to fight for the common good. Not an easy task, but always possible when things get bad enough and the rich are no longer rich enough to buy the soldiers and keep the slaves fed.
Reverse Engineer
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ReverseEngineer - Intermediate Crude
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IEA World Energy Outlook Released (we're so screwed)
by sirrom » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 06:49:02
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2008SUM.pdf
lets start the checking it over
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he prospect of accelerating declines in production at individual oilfields is adding to these uncertainties. The findings of an unprecedented field-by-field analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. “Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinant of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline”, Mr. Tanaka added.
lets start the checking it over
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he prospect of accelerating declines in production at individual oilfields is adding to these uncertainties. The findings of an unprecedented field-by-field analysis of the historical production trends of 800 oilfields indicate that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030. “Despite all the attention that is given to demand growth, decline rates are actually a far more important determinant of investment needs. Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of gross capacity – roughly four times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – would need to be built by 2030 just to offset the effect of oilfield decline”, Mr. Tanaka added.
check out page 7 and 8.
page 8 admits conventional crude oil production has peaked.
http://www.iea.org/weo/key_graphs_08/WE ... Graphs.pdf
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Reference Scenario projections call for cumulative investment of over
$26 trillion (in year-2007 dollars) in 2007-2030, over $4 trillion more than posited
in WEO-2007.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he projected increase in global oil output hinges on adequate and timely
investment. Some 64 mb/d of additional gross capacity — the equivalent of almost
six times that of Saudi Arabia today — needs to be brought on stream between
2007 and 2030.
This is if oil demand keeps rising.
And how much oil is remaining?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he world’s total endowment of oil is large enough to support the projected rise in
production beyond 2030 in the Reference Scenario. Estimates of remaining proven
reserves of oil and NGLs range from about 1.2 to 1.3 trillion barrels (including about
0.2 trillion barrels of non-conventional oil). They have almost doubled since 1980. This
is enough to supply the world with oil for over 40 years at current rates of consumption.
Though most of the increase in reserves has come from revisions made in the 1980s in
OPEC countries rather than from new discoveries,
Summary:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he energy future will be very different
For all the uncertainties highlighted in this report, we can be certain that the
energy world will look a lot different in 2030 than it does today. The world energy
system will be transformed, but not necessarily in the way we would like to see. We
can be confident of some of the trends highlighted in this report: the growing weight
of China, India, the Middle East and other non-OECD regions in energy markets and in
CO 2 emissions; the rapidly increasing dominance of national oil companies; and the
emergence of low-carbon energy technologies. And while market imbalances could
temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era
of cheap oil is over. But many of the key policy drivers (not to mention other, external
factors) remain in doubt. It is within the power of all governments, of producing and
consuming countries alike, acting alone or together, to steer the world towards a
cleaner, cleverer and more competitive energy system. Time is running out and the time
to act is now.
Last edited by sirrom on Wed 12 Nov 2008, 10:11:12, edited 6 times in total.
