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Spreading World Food Abundance

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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby mattduke » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 08:51:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'I')'m sure the millions of people who'll go to bed hungry tonight will feel much better now that you've started this thread.

Indeed, they won't. Like I said: low food prices are bad for the poor. High food prices are good for the poor. This is so because 75% of the world's poor happen to be farmers.
The problem is that low food prices means that nasty governments in poor countries will import food from the EU and the US again, instead of stimulating their own farmers to grow more and grow out of poverty and hunger.
Thus the disaster of the past 30 years will continue. Low food prices have been a true catastrophy for the world's poor.
The only sensible thing we can do is turn most of that excess food into fuels. So prices remain high, which is beneficial to those who go to bed hungry tonight.

The theory of scarcity. See Bastiat's "economic sophisms", 1845. link
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 14 Oct 2008, 14:43:16

And what about this conflicting news story off the homepage? WTF??

Rising food prices
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sun 26 Oct 2008, 22:12:09

--> LINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]World wheat production is rebounding
21 oct 2008
World wheat stocks have been tight for some time and decreased production around the globe last year made them even tighter.
But many have said a rebound in world wheat production was needed this year and it looks like it is happening.

The Russian Agricultural Ministry has reported that wheat harvest and exports were significantly higher at this time than they were in 2007.
The Ukraine also reported excellent grain harvests of 70% more than a year ago.
While Rabobank cut the estimate of Australia's wheat harvest by a half million tonnes, their forecast of 20.5 million is still a significant increase over the past two year's harvests that were hit by severe drought.

A report out of Europe shows a 25% increase in forecasted wheat production over last year.
"What we are looking at now is an increase of world wheat production to the tune of nearly 70 million tonnes," says World Trade Outlook chairman Gerry Bange.
"That is a very, very sharp increase; over 11pc increase in one year." The US wheat production has also increased by 21pc over last year.[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 16:01:49

--> Bloomberg <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Wheat Falls to 2-Week Low as U.S. Boosts Inventory Forecasts By Tony C. Dreibus
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat prices fell to a two-week low after the government unexpectedly raised its estimate for U.S. stockpiles, because less of the harvested grain will be used to seed new crops after harvest delays for corn and soybeans.

About 603 million bushels will be in storage by May 31, 2009, almost double a 34-year low of 306 million a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report. Last month, the USDA forecast 601 million and analysts expected 589 million on average, a Bloomberg survey showed. Wheat prices are down 61 percent from a record in February as the farmers planted more. [...]

Wheat prices also may be declining after the government raised its global production estimate by 3.2 percent to a record 682.4 million metric tons. Russia will harvest 63 million tons, up from 61 million forecast last month, and 12 former Soviet republics will increase production by 2 million tons, the USDA said in today's report. [...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 17:10:29

This is good news?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ecause less of the harvested grain will be used to seed new crops after harvest delays for corn and soybeans.


Or maybe we should be just as short-sighted as the spot market?
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 21:46:45

^
With rising stockpiles caused by that lack of use of grain for seed, they might not need the extra crop acreage next year.

Not sure why this thread was moved, but whatever.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 22:07:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '^') With rising stockpiles caused by that lack of use of grain for seed, they might not need the extra crop acreage next year.

That makes absolutely no sense but, whatever.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 22:18:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '^') With rising stockpiles caused by that lack of use of grain for seed, they might not need the extra crop acreage next year.
That makes absolutely no sense but, whatever.

I'll try again . . .
- Less grain used for seed for next year's crop = more grain going into stockpiles.
- More grain going into stockpiles = more grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year.
- More grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year = less need of a big crop next year.
- Less need of a big crop next year = less need for seed grain.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 22:37:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '^') With rising stockpiles caused by that lack of use of grain for seed, they might not need the extra crop acreage next year.
That makes absolutely no sense but, whatever.

Grain gives a benefit of something like 30:1 (or more) for every one seed planted we get 30 back.

Farmers are not able to plant wheat this year because of the late bean and corn harvest. Short term gain in stockpiles but less is being planted. For every 1 you save now you loose 30 in the spring.

This is not a benefit, it is a loss. Unless you are dealing with the spot market in which case the price goes down now and up again in the spring.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Nefarious » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 22:59:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '^')
With rising stockpiles caused by that lack of use of grain for seed, they might not need the extra crop acreage next year.
That makes absolutely no sense but, whatever.

I'll try again . . .
- Less grain used for seed for next year's crop = more grain going into stockpiles.
- More grain going into stockpiles = more grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year.
- More grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year = less need of a big crop next year.
- Less need of a big crop next year = less need for seed grain.

I want to play also, but I can do better than that:
- 0 grain used for seed for next year's crop = all grain going into stockpiles.
- All grain going into stockpiles = All grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year.
- All grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year = No need for a crop next year.
- No need of a crop next year = No need for seed grain

YEAR AFTER YOU'RE FARKED!!!

You can't deplete your way to more.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 10 Nov 2008, 23:24:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nefarious', ' ')I want to play also, but I can do better than that:
- 0 grain used for seed for next year's crop = all grain going into stockpiles.
- All grain going into stockpiles = All grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year.
- All grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year = No need for a crop next year.
- No need of a crop next year = No need for seed grain
YEAR AFTER YOU'RE FARKED!!!
You can't deplete your way to more.

Otherwise known as reducio ad absurdum. Obviously they're still saving some grain for seed next year, just not as much as forecast. In fact, the article said:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Farmers will use 82 million bushels of wheat from storage to seed new crops, less than the 84 million forecast last month, increasing U.S. stockpiles by 2 million bushels from the October estimate, the USDA said.

With prices having tanked in the past several months, a large crop this year, and stockpiles increasing even sans the 2 million bushel addition, a 2.4% reduction in the amount of seed grain saved for cropping next year is a pretty rational decision.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'G')rain gives a benefit of something like 30:1 (or more) for every one seed planted we get 30 back.

Farmers are not able to plant wheat this year because of the late bean and corn harvest. Short term gain in stockpiles but less is being planted. For every 1 you save now you loose 30 in the spring.

This is not a benefit, it is a loss. Unless you are dealing with the spot market in which case the price goes down now and up again in the spring.

See reply to Nefarious above.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 00:04:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '^') With rising stockpiles caused by that lack of use of grain for seed, they might not need the extra crop acreage next year.
That makes absolutely no sense but, whatever.

I'll try again . . .
- Less grain used for seed for next year's crop = more grain going into stockpiles.
- More grain going into stockpiles = more grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year.
- More grain being stored/saved for regular consumption next year = less need of a big crop next year.
- Less need of a big crop next year = less need for seed grain.
So the less grain we save as seeds the more we have for food. That's great :) That's perpetual food. You've just disproved Jevons, Malthus, Catton, Hubbert, and Diamond in one lame comment. Thanks a heap :twisted: :) [smilie=55.gif]

You replied with the exact same reducio ad absurdum that Nefarious replied with. See response above.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Nefarious » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 00:20:45

You are twisting the information. You are trying to make it sound like they didn't need to plant the seed and so moved it to stocks.
The article clearly states that the ONLY reason it was moved to stocks was because farmers were UNABLE to plant the seeds.

Am I wrong?
'By the pricking of my thumbs,Something Wicked This Way Comes."
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 00:43:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nefarious', 'Y')ou are twisting the information. You are trying to make it sound like they didn't need to plant the seed and so moved it to stocks.
The article clearly states that the ONLY reason it was moved to stocks was because farmers were UNABLE to plant the seeds.

Am I wrong?

In response to this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ecause less of the harvested grain will be used to seed new crops after harvest delays for corn and soybeans.

w_c asked, "This is good news?"

The implication in questioning whether that was good news is that it is bad that farmers will be setting aside less grain seed for wheat planting next year. Even if this entirely unintentional, the fact that prices have crashed recently, stockpiles have doubled over last year, and we had a big crop this year means that, for farmers, this unintentional reduction in the amount of seed grain will make it difficult for farmers to over-produce next year, and thus make it difficult to raise stockpiles even more and crash the price even more. If that had happened, the year after that would see an even more radical curtailment of planting. So, this "accident" is good for farmers because, essentially, it will force them to temper their longer-term behavior and moderate the market.

Hope that made sense. In other words, if they over-produced this year (which is arguably true), then the (accidental) reduction in seed for next year will correct the situation.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby lorenzo » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 19:39:31

So why was this thread moved from its sibling thread ("spreading food crisis"), which is still located in the Current Events section?

Is this thread put under "Open Discussion" because it is not paranoid, peaky or crisis-ridden enough? :-D


The point is that the real current event is the global collapse of food prices, and a growing overproduction. Frankly, I don't care where you put this thread. You can even put the Truth in the garbage bin if you want to, it's still the Truth.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 22:42:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'S')o why was this thread moved from its sibling thread ("spreading food crisis"), which is still located in the Current Events section?

Is this thread put under "Open Discussion" because it is not paranoid, peaky or crisis-ridden enough? :-D


The point is that the real current event is the global collapse of food prices, and a growing overproduction. Frankly, I don't care where you put this thread. You can even put the Truth in the garbage bin if you want to, it's still the Truth.


I do not know who moved it but I would guess that it was moved in keeping with a general sense that, with the elections and all, there was a bit of mission creep away from our core topic, energy depletion and that some tighter organization was called for. I will happily move the scarcity into open, even if just to avoid the appearance of favoritism.

I still find it pretty darn ironic that someone would try to pass off that fewer acres being planted in wheat this year due to weather is a sign of abundance. There is more to an issue than spot price. But if it makes you feel good...
-----------------
edit: after a thread is moved there is often a "shadow" of the thread under the old heading. I checked the food scarcity thread and someone already moved it into open discussion.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby Ferretlover » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 00:15:32

Current Events Forum "is for posting and discussion of current events related to peak oil and hydrocarbon depletion. Please make sure your topic is at least tangentially related to energy in some way, otherwise please post it in Open Discussion."
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: Spreading World Food Abundance

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 08:48:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Nefarious', 'Y')ou are twisting the information. You are trying to make it sound like they didn't need to plant the seed and so moved it to stocks.
The article clearly states that the ONLY reason it was moved to stocks was because farmers were UNABLE to plant the seeds.

Am I wrong?


Yes.
Even though they could not plant some acreage they got a large crop and stockpiles are high. the high stockpile levels have dropped the price expected to be paid next harvest. At low prices some marginal land will not be planted as that land is only profitable at high prices and even though wheat farmers are some of the worlds biggest gamblers they do play the odds. Given average weather accross the wheat belt and some land left idle a smaller crop should result and stockpiles should decline and prices move back up when and if that happens.

The circular arguments above are hilarious. The guys at the grain elevator would laugh TAO to read them.
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