[evilgenius]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '
')
1) What have I forgotten? (Wish there was a master checklist!)
2) Where to put our savings. (No debt , small business, age 62)

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')Credit is starting to loosen. The stock markets are stabilizing. Oil and other commodity prices are far lower. The drop in housing sales (if not prices) appears to have bottomed. The dollar has strengthened.

Right now the world is drowning in energy surpluses. This is a huge plus for the System that we of all people should not overlook.

We may end up having no more than a mild and brief recession. I don't see a boom ahead either, though. After recovery sets in, sort of steady-as-you-go for a while.

[sicophiliac]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y devil's advocate hackles are up.

I'm increasingly dubious that "this is it." I feel that the System still has the capacity for a few more whirls on the merry-go-round.

Credit is starting to loosen. The stock markets are stabilizing. Oil and other commodity prices are far lower. The drop in housing sales (if not prices) appears to have bottomed. The dollar has strengthened.

Right now the world is drowning in energy surpluses. This is a huge plus for the System that we of all people should not overlook.

We may end up having no more than a mild and brief recession. I don't see a boom ahead either, though. After recovery sets in, sort of steady-as-you-go for a while.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '
')
I didn't hack into his account. I burrowed into his brainstem using a nanotech controller cleverly hidden in a Burrito Supreme he ate at Taco Bell. Right now I've got him in his basement, gnawing glassy-eyed through his food stash. When he's done there, he'll be spending all the cash he's squirreled away on stock in Sun Microsystems and Chrysler. As the weeks go by, I'll be targeting other sub-patriotic members of this forum. It's all part of an offensive by the hush-hush government agency I work for.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y devil's advocate hackles are up.

I'm increasingly dubious that "this is it." I feel that the System still has the capacity for a few more whirls on the merry-go-round.

Credit is starting to loosen. The stock markets are stabilizing. Oil and other commodity prices are far lower. The drop in housing sales (if not prices) appears to have bottomed. The dollar has strengthened.

Right now the world is drowning in energy surpluses. This is a huge plus for the System that we of all people should not overlook.

We may end up having no more than a mild and brief recession. I don't see a boom ahead either, though. After recovery sets in, sort of steady-as-you-go for a while.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'M')y devil's advocate hackles are up.

I'm increasingly dubious that "this is it." I feel that the System still has the capacity for a few more whirls on the merry-go-round.

Credit is starting to loosen. The stock markets are stabilizing. Oil and other commodity prices are far lower. The drop in housing sales (if not prices) appears to have bottomed. The dollar has strengthened.

Right now the world is drowning in energy surpluses. This is a huge plus for the System that we of all people should not overlook.

We may end up having no more than a mild and brief recession. I don't see a boom ahead either, though. After recovery sets in, sort of steady-as-you-go for a while.

[CarlosFerreira]

I was in Blanchflower's conference yesterday, at the University of Kent. He's pessimistic, but his model is that we'll get through this and recover on the other side - late 2009, early 2010. You can read his speech here and the slides are here.

He actually acknowledges (quoting someone else) along his speech that every 90% of all UK's recessions after WW2 were preceded by an oil event; that means he's not out of it as some people might say.

Arguably, his worry is that people will start getting fired in a hurry. He predicts 2 million unemployed people in the UK by X-Mas - lots of Little Helper for Santa. He also predicted inflation would next year go below 2%, maybe even below 1% or negative.

We're seeing a lot of deflation is commodity prices, but those were probably artificially high anyway, because of the oil spike and all the easy money we had before. He ended the speech on a bright note, that we'd get out of the pinch soon. My 2 cents is that if we get another oil spike any time soon, we might get a more prolonged recession, with strong deflation.

I'm begining to believe one of the greatest problems with PO might be deflation.

[patience]

Thanks for all the replies! Some good stuff there, too.

KevO, We have pulled out everything except the one govt retirement savings that is in Treasuries. Just got the new password today to pull that one, thinking that the govt is diluting T's with some of their shenanigans (some nonsense about the Fed buying T's and keeping them, and still issuing FRN's), which could make them drop. All other monies are in cash, or already spent on preps and property improvements. We will use that last savings (T's) to buy the kids' mortgage, and have about 20K left. Have that much more in liquid assets (very liquid). We can live on next to nothing, and do, so even without my wife's job, we can live, by skimping, on my shop income if need be. Like you said, the house and lot is worth improving. This year we terraced another garden, added a 3,000 gallon tank to irrigate it, a shed to protect the tank (plastic), added onto the yard barn to store more stuff (40 bu. wheat, 30 bu. corn, gas cans, extra nails, fencing, garden tractors, and parts for them), got a new gas stove and 400 gallons of LP, a new fridge to cut electric usage for PV power, a second bicycle, lots of tools, a corn sheller, a grass/wheat scythe, and some extras for the blacksmith shop.

Some of what money is left will go to a set of horse harness for the kids, and a shop to move the blacksmith outfit to their place (10 miles). Maybe a horse shed and corn crib there. We share resources.

Spanktron9, Speed of collapse? I'm just reading what they are saying on Tickerforum and in the GEAB/LEAP 2020 prediction. I hope they are wrong too! Yeah, some more meds would be good. Have a lot of vet supplies. Could use some extra winter clothing, so we'll hit the Goodwill (I'm too tight to pay retail). Foodstuffs we have, and all the garden supplies to grow more. I may get some canned seeds, though. Trade goods are a fine idea. I accumulate farm stuff, and have a market for it, so I could expand that into more general things.

evilgenius, Fire? Well, we have a plethora (been waiting for aplace to use that word) of fire extinguishers, outside freezeless faucets on city water with hoses, new smoke alarms, and an irrigation tank I could tap. But there are more things I could do there. Our welding shop has a woodstove and electricity, and is a very tight new building, but limited room for use as shelter. We could go to my daughter's, though, only 10 miles away.

I expect a serious devaluation, (or "new dollar") of USD before this goes too much farther, which is my only objection to cash. So, I'll keep some cash for a while yet. I'm trying to figure out where to go from there for a backup plan in case we something like Argentina's 3 to 1 currnecy devaluation, like overnight. If I hadn't spent it by then, that would really tick me off!

Thanks again for the ideas everyone. Jerry

PS Where the dickens do you get lidocaine?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'W')hat have I forgotten?

[patience]

I doubt that Pops! I'm not sure if I've ever had a really good idea of my OWN, but what I HAVE done is take the best ideas there are from the best people around. A lot of those people are here.

[deMolay]

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid ... 0582&hl=en

[patience]

Thanks, deMolay. Sobering video.

[Commanding_Heights]

Thanks for this. One I haven't seen.

[evilgenius]

Now that was excellent. It was a story about the reasons for something rather than just the fear of it.

[eastbay]

Thanks deMolay.

That was a very interesting video. Saw the whole thing just now.

Saved it. Strange about the ship sailing from Europe filled with wealthy and depositing them in NY poor.

[Eli]

Great Video the parallels to today are shocking. The only thing different between now and the 30's is this time it is happening faster.

The illusion of easy money is gone.

[Armageddon]

The great depression was orchestrated by the international bankers. The created the boom, then the bust , then bought up everything for pennies on the dollar. The same thing is happening today. This is why Jefferson and many others warned against having a centralized bank.

Amschel Rothschild, " give me control over a countries money supply, and I care not who writes the laws "

He did just that.

[TWilliam]

Great video deMolay, thanks.

Anybody have any idea if anyone's done something more recent that compares the events leading to the '29 Crash and it's aftermath, with the events that have been unfolding the last year or so, and the parallels?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Armageddon', 'T')he great depression was orchestrated by the international bankers. The created the boom, then the bust , then bought up everything for pennies on the dollar. The same thing is happening today. This is why Jefferson and many others warned against having a centralized bank.