by dorlomin » Sat 08 Nov 2008, 15:04:00
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'W')ith Putin waiting in the wings to step back into power (not that he is not still in power) Russia will become a lot more dangerous in the future. Europe will be in trouble.
Nothing helps business and a country rich in resources like a good war, puts people to work builds industry gets rid of unemployment.
The EU massively outnumbers Russia and this is especialy true in youth numbers. What is more in technology the EU utterly outclasses Russia. And then there are nuclear weapons. Its very hard to fight a war when everyone has thermonuclear weapons, or could obtain them in a matter of a 2 years or less.
In terms of game theory the cost vs risk of Russia going to war is appaling. Even if they seized say Poland, what would the benefit be? WW2 and Iraq provide a template for how to form a resistance to bleed an occupier. Its easy and cheap to do if your passing weapons to the occupied country. The Russians do not remotely have the manpower to occupy Germany and France let alone cross the channel.
Russias long term stratagy is survival. It will not survive by threatening the EU. They have coal, lots of it. They have access to Middle Eastern gas. If Russia is too initimdating the cost of developing paralel infrastructer to circumvent any future Russian blockade of gas is massively cheaper than the slow bleeding by over pricing. But Putin is no fool. He is just about the cleverst world leader around. He knows he has a symbiotic relationship with the EU. There economies need to grow too afford his gas and oil. His concerns and ambitions are totaly confined to his near abroad. The old USSR. Id bet his current goals are the splitting of Ukraine so that the ethnic Russian part comes back into the fold, Belaurs coming back then simply ensuring that Russia is the route for Kahzak and other central asian gas to pass through to European markets.
Putin has too big problems. A large domestic muslim population that is resltess and seeks independence in many cases and China sitting on his Eastern flank. I think you have too Occidentalist a world veiw. Russians dont suffer this blindness. Remember Stalins 40 best divisions faced the Japanese until November 1941.