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Mexico collapse watch thread

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 28 Aug 2008, 12:18:08

Britain, Germany and Switzerland officially warn citizens about the dangers of travel in Mexico

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')osted: 27 Aug 2008 04:07 PM CDT
El Informador (Guadalajara, Jal.), El Universal (Mex. City), Frontera (Tijuana. B.C.) 8/27/08
Various European governments are now warning their citizens that when visiting Mexico they must protect themselves as much from the police as from the criminals because there are links between the police officers and criminal groups.

The German Chancery recommended its citizens not to resist if they are victims of some crime because the law breakers use their weapons immediately. Further it emphasizes that police forces are implicated in illicit activities.

Likewise, officials in Great Britain issued alerts to tourists due to the complaints of complicity between police and kidnappers. In its internet site, it points out that “express kidnappings” occur especially in Mexico City.

And the Swiss Dep’t. of Foreign Relations uses a section to explain criminality in Mexico and mentions that there’ve been known cases of police collusion in criminal activity.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 02 Sep 2008, 01:25:34

UPDATE 1- Mexico migrant remittances fall in July

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')EXICO CITY, Sept 1 (Reuters) - The amount of money sent home by Mexicans living abroad fell 6.93 percent in July from the same month in 2007, the biggest fall in more than a decade, the central bank said on Monday.

Remittances, one of Mexico's biggest sources of foreign currency, were $2.02 billion in July. During the first seven months of the year they totaled $13.6 billion, down 2.9 percent compared with the same period last year.

Remittances fell more in July than in any time since the central bank started keeping track in 1995.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Cynus » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 22:30:54

Organized crime takes control in parts of Mexico

MORELIA, Mexico — As helicopters circled overhead, trucks carrying Mexican army troops lurched through the colonial streets of this provincial capital to a central plaza, where a grenade had been discovered near the cathedral.

Law-enforcement agents cordoned off the plaza and removed the grenade. But the latest attempt at intimidation in Michoacan , the state where Mexican President Felipe Calderon first dispatched the military to confront the Mexican drug cartels, appears to have succeeded.

Fear of the drug gangs pervades this city about 200 miles west of Mexico City .

"Don't go to Aguililla or to Tepalcatepec or to Coalcoman!'' is the warning Victor Serrato , president of the State Commission on Human Rights in Morelia gives visitors. There is a risk of abduction, mistreatment or worse, he said.

...

The chilling reality of Mexico is the mounting evidence that organized crime has become the de facto power in parts of the country, and local authorities can no longer protect citizens and impart justice.
" Michoacan is one of the states where you feel most the breakdown of the social fabric because of this criminal activity," Serrato said.
"These cartels, which previously were dedicated to the narcotics business, have now turned to control a whole other series of activities," he said. "They are demanding payoffs not only from owners of illicit businesses, but what is more serious, they are demanding them from people who sell clothing in markets or the owners of small restaurants."

...

Paredes echoed Guillermo Valdes , the head of the government's intelligence organization CISEN, who framed the issue as a threat to democracy. Drug traffickers are attempting to take control of the government, he told foreign reporters recently.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 14 Sep 2008, 23:22:11

If I haven't already, here's a plug for the M3 Report, compiled by members of The National Association of Former Border Patrol Officers (NAFBPO). All the latest in corruption, beheadings, kidnappings, etc. :cry:

I heard a while back about a lawless zone in Los Angeles (which some would say is part of Mexico already...), which the cops/EMTs have simply written off - pay no attention to 911 calls, don't bother patrolling, etc. Started off as a block or two, and is expanding as time goes by. Maybe in the 84th/San Pedro area?

Getting Away With Murder in South L.A.'s Killing Zone

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ne intersection. Seven unsolved homicides.

That’s the tally for the cross streets of San Pedro and 84th dating to the late 1980s. The spot is typical of many in South and Central Los Angeles where extraordinary numbers of people are murdered and the killers are never caught.

Unsolved homicides – killings for which no suspect is ever arrested – are stacked up block by block, mile by mile, in this part of Los Angeles.

From San Pedro and 84th streets, they stretch east, west and south – two on one street, six on another, a massive number of killings which, taken together, create a chilling map of violent lawlessness.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 10:06:41

SeekingAlpha, Sept 7th: Mexico: Running Out of Oil and Options »

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il exports will certainly have dried up on that timeframe. The balance of resources between the government and criminal groups will deteriorate rapidly in coming years, and the US may face a de facto criminalized narco-state as a neighbor with violence spilling across its Southern borders. Other implications would include a massive surge in illegal immigration from the current estimated 450,000 a year as impoverished Mexicans flee both declining living standards and rampant lawlessness, and the US losing energy security by becoming even more dependent on oil shipped huge distances from the Persian Gulf and West Africa.

Ironically, the success of US policies to support the Colombian government now threaten to undermine the strategically far more important Mexican one, a classic case of the law of unintended consequences in action. It will take more than that fancy new border fence or oil drilling in Alaska to address the looming crisis that will almost inevitably explode by the end of the new President's first term.

I have been bearish of emerging markets in general in recent months, and Mexico is one of the most vulnerable to capital flight as the combination of falling oil prices and production creates a fiscal crisis in 2009.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 06 Oct 2008, 04:23:56

NYTimes: The right thing to wear on the wrong end of a gun


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut tucked on a leafy side street in the Polanco neighborhood is a shop unlike the others, one whose bustling business says much about the dire state of security in this country. At Miguel Caballero, named after its Colombian owner, all the garments are bulletproof.

There are bulletproof leather jackets and bulletproof polo shirts. Armored guayabera shirts hang next to protective windbreakers, parkas and even white ruffled tuxedo shirts. Every member of the sales staff has had to take a turn being shot while wearing one of the products, which range from a few hundred dollars to as much as $7,000, so they can attest to the efficacy of the secret fabric.

“If feels like a punch,” a salesman said of the shot to the stomach he received.

Just who is willing to fork over thousands of dollars for these chic shields? Customers include Presidents Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Alvaro Uribe of Colombia, not to mention assorted royalty, movie stars and other V.I.P.’s.

As Mexico grapples with an increase in drug-related violence, sales are steadily on the rise, the company said, though it declined to provide precise figures.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 20 Oct 2008, 04:51:04

Drug Killings impact youth

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')exico’s explosion of drug-related violence has caught the attention of the country’s children. Experts say the atrocities that young people are hearing about, and all too frequently witnessing, are hardening them, traumatizing them, filling their heads with images that are hard to shake.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xchanging gruesome stories is nothing new for schoolchildren, who have a way of overstating their brushes with danger. But the 12 tortured, tongueless bodies that were the talk of the playground recently were no exaggeration. In the early hours of Sept. 29, the bodies of 11 men and one woman, bound and partly dressed, were found in an abandoned lot opposite the school.

The headmaster, Miguel Angel Gonzalez Tovar, canceled classes soon after the bodies were discovered, but that did not stop some students from getting a glimpse of them and many others from hearing about them.

“There’s no doubt these images affect the children,” said Mr. Gonzalez, who recently met with government psychologists to plan counseling sessions with the students. “Some of them are very quiet now. Some are asking us, ‘Why did they die?’ ”


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the bodies dumped outside the school are only one of several macabre displays, forcing teachers to compete with the killers for the attention of Mexico’s youth.

Indeed, it is hard to find a student here who does not know some of the gruesome details of recent killings, like the several vats of acid that were found outside a seafood restaurant, containing what the authorities said they believed were human remains. Or the two bodies wrapped in what resembled cellophane that were found near a road sign that said, “Thank you for visiting Tijuana.”

Mr. Gonzalez’s biggest fear is that the awful scenes playing out across much of Mexico are so common that they will eventually lose their shock value among the young, making killing an expected, even acceptable, part of life.

“They may grow up with this sort of thing being normal,” he said.


And when something is "normal" it is then natural to partake in such activities or believe that this is the way that world works.

Sleep well those along the southern border.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby mos6507 » Mon 20 Oct 2008, 11:24:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '
')And when something is "normal" it is then natural to partake in such activities or believe that this is the way that world works.

Sleep well those along the southern border.


But, but, but, we need open borders so we don't risk being called racist.

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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Wed 05 Nov 2008, 03:26:46

Sometimes a plane crash is just a plane crash but this smells funny.


Mexican Interior Minister Killed in Plane Crash

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')EXICO CITY — Mexico’s interior minister and seven others onboard a government jet died Tuesday night when it crashed into a tony business district here during rush hour, igniting cars and sending dozens of people to local hospitals.

The minister, Juan Camilo Mourino, 37, had been one of President Felipe Calderon’s closest advisers and a rising star in the National Action Party. He headed the government’s security apparatus and was the president’s point man in the increasingly bloody drug war.

Mr. Calderon, in an emotional news conference, said Mr. Mourino’s children ought to know that he had worked “until his last moment to leave them with a better country.”

The Lear jet, carrying three crew members, Mr. Mourino and four of his aides, came down on busy Reforma Avenue about 6:45 p.m., scattering wreckage over a vast area.

“It fell on top of all the traffic, which you know is completely stopped,” said Arturo Sanchez Rios, a food vendor. “I saw 10 to 15 cars explode in a manner of seconds.”
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby natts » Wed 05 Nov 2008, 13:54:47

Too bad, the crash doesn't seem so accidental.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 05 Nov 2008, 18:16:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('natts', 'T')oo bad, the crash doesn't seem so accidental.


Nothing seems so accidental to peakoilers.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby natts » Wed 05 Nov 2008, 18:36:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')Nothing seems so accidental to peakoilers.


The thing is, are we right? are we peakoilers more aware of things? or we feel that every dog is going to bite?
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 05 Nov 2008, 18:48:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('natts', 'T')oo bad, the crash doesn't seem so accidental.


Nothing seems so accidental to peakoilers.


You need to read the M3 Report and learn what is actually going on in Mexico before casually dismissing this as an accident.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')l Universal (Mexico City) 11/4/08
- According to records kept by El Universal since 2005, the 24 hours of Monday (yesterday) were the most violent for the year in the country, with 58 murders linked to organized crime. This figure surpasses the record set on Sept 12 when 41 murders occurred within a 24-hour period. Among those murdered yesterday were seven police commanders and officers. One police officer was wounded and the severed head of a private security guard was left in a gasoline station restroom.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Cynus » Tue 11 Nov 2008, 10:29:48

Drug Wars ongoing problem for Mexico

Terror and a grim warning about future instability struck our NAFTA partner, Mexico, on the day Barack Obama became Presidentelect of the United States.

There was no press attention in Canada, and hardly any in the United States, about the crash during rush hour in downtown Mexico City of a Lear jet carrying the second-highest official in the Mexican government, Interior Secretary Juan Camilo Mourino, along with key drug interdiction officials. Thirteen people died in the plane and on the ground, and 40 were injured.

Another passenger was former assistant attorney-general Jose Luis Santiago Vasconcelos, who had a multi-million-dollar price put on his head by the cartels because of his work against the drug trade during the administration of Vicente Fox.

It appears to be a message that the drug cartels will stop at nothing as they continue to corrupt and ruin the country as they did in Colombia.

In the past year, Mexico's drug-related murder rate became four times' higher than the casualty rate in Iraq among Americans. Some 4,000 people have been killed and the all-out war waged by Sr. Mourino, 37, resulted in assassinations of police chiefs, mayors and soldiers.

Clearly, this has grave implications for all NAFTA partners, notably the United States, which will see increased drug trafficking and illegal immigration as Mexico starts a possible descent into a kleptocracy.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby bratticus » Wed 12 Nov 2008, 00:17:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]Juan Camilo Mourino benefited from Pemex
Mexico City-The documents last Sunday Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador delivered to the coordinators of the parliamentary Progressive Broad Front (FAP)-PRD, Convergencia and PT-containing a series of agreements to provide transportation service that Pemex Refining held with the Ivancar Specialized Transportation Company, which appears today the signing of Interior Minister Juan Camilo Mourino.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]Juan Camilo Mourino, Secretario de Gobernacion, killed
Politically, resistance to the Administration’s proposed PEMEX reforms -- pushed by Mourino -- will mean the Calderon Administration will be in even more difficulty and resistance from the opposition parties to other domestic programs is likely to increase

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]Juan Camilo Mourino (RIP) and Energy Reform in Mexico Mr. Mourino's energy legacy is mixed: The energy reforms of 2008 are likely to benefit those service companies that, already, have lucrative contracts with Pemex. The reform of Article 33 of the Federal Administration Law provides that the Energy Ministry will submit to the Foreign Ministry (SRE) proposals for agreements and treaties for cross-border oilfields.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')u]The Battle for Pemex: a Mexican Oil Worker Explains Energy Reform

Posted by Kristin Bricker - November 4, 2008 at 6:25 pm: Mexican Congress approves light reforms for the state oil company; legislators vow to continue the campaign to privatize Pemex
... Narco News: How do you respond to politicians’ statements in the media that Mexico is running out of petroleum, so Pemex needs to be privatized before this happens?
Gomezcana Morales: Peak oil is a reality. Peak oil is petroleum’s downfall. This year we’ve hit peak oil at a global level--we’ve reached the zenith, and now comes the drop in petroleum reserves. We’re seeing this in Mexico. Mexico will stop producing petroleum. We’re not finding new oilfields. We’re already experiencing a strong decrease in petroleum reserves globally.
The problem is that there aren’t alternative projects. The few projects that exist that are searching for alternative energy sources are redundant. Foreigners are carrying out these projects. It’s written into Plan Puebla Panama that in the case of Mexico's wind power, instead of the [state-owned] electric company[4] having the responsibility to invest in wind power projects, they grant the right to install windmills in this zone to foreign private companies like Spain’s Repsol. It’s our wind, even though that sounds a little abstract. The profits won’t be for Mexico. The profits are for the foreign companies. Repsol doesn’t even have the infrastructure to carry out these types of projects. Repsol subcontracts the work to other foreign companies, just like Halliburton does. And they keep granting these projects to Repsol and Halliburton because the neoliberal governments--like Mexico’s--allow it.

Something else very important is going on in Mexico. No other country would permit the conflict of interests that exists in the Mexican Ministry of the Interior (Segob in its Spanish initials). Felipe Calderon’s little pet Juan Camilo Mourino [the current Secretary of the Interior] has a conflict of interest in our country’s energy sector.[5] He’s Spanish. So he’s promoting Spanish investment in our country. They have vested interests here. To sum it up, there are two completely different projects here: the Global South’s project and the North’s project. Those of us from below, and the powerful. Those of us who defend all of our resources--one of them being petroleum--from projects like Plan Puebla Panama, and those who want what’s ours. ...

[4] Electricity is also nationalized in Mexico under the government’s Federal Electricity Commission (CFE in its Spanish initials).

[5] In 2002 and 20003, while working as an aid to then-Secretary of Energy Felipe Calderon, Mourino signed at least three energy contracts as an official representative of his father’s Mexican transportation company Transportes Especializados Ivancar. The contracts were for services provided to Pemex. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who presented the contracts to the media, said, “He obtained million-peso contracts by directly awarding them in order to benefit his family business.”
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 04:17:04

Mexico Hedges All Oil Exports in '09 at $70

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')exico said it has hedged all of its oil exports for next year against a price of oil below $70 a barrel, in a sign of how some resource-rich nations are trying to protect themselves against slumping commodity prices amid a global economic slowdown.

Mexico's Finance Ministry said Thursday that it bought $1.5 billion of put options that guarantee Mexico will get at least $70 a barrel for some 330 million barrels.

If the price is above $70, then Mexico can choose not to exercise the option and sell for the market price.

Mexico has been hedging against the price of oil for years, but normally the country covers only a fraction of total exports. But the steep fall in the price of oil from last year's highs alarmed Mexican officials. The price corresponds to Mexico's expectations of oil income for next year's budget.

"We started this back in July, doing it very slowly to avoid affecting the market," said Rodrigo Brand, a Finance Ministry spokesman.

With oil at Wednesday's closing price, Mexico would have made $9.55 billion on the hedges, the Finance Ministry said.


Campeche Hold 'Em!
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 15 Nov 2008, 04:50:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', 'S')ometimes a plane crash is just a plane crash but this smells funny.


Mexican Interior Minister Killed in Plane Crash



And sometimes something smells funny and it turns out to be amazingly... pedestrian.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')EXICO CITY — The pilot of a small government jet that crashed last week, killing Mexico’s interior minister, flew too close to a jumbo jet that it was following and lost control of the plane in the turbulence created by the larger plane, the authorities said Friday.


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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby Cynus » Fri 21 Nov 2008, 11:20:20

Mexico's Drug War Spills into the US

SAN DIEGO - The drug violence that has left about 4,000 people dead this year in Mexico is spreading deep into the United States, leaving a trail of slayings, kidnappings, and other crimes in at least 195 cities as far afield as Atlanta, Boston, Seattle, and Honolulu, according to federal authorities.

Residents of a quiet subdivision in Lilburn, Ga., an Atlanta suburb, awoke to the transborder crime wave in July, when a brigade of well-armored federal and state police officers surrounded a two-story colonial home, ordered neighbors to lock their doors, and flushed out three men described as members of a Mexican drug cartel. One was captured after he tried to slip down a storm drain. Another was caught in the ivy in Pete Bogerd's backyard.

A short while later, police hauled out a 31-year-old from the Dominican Republic who for nearly a week had been chained and tortured inside the basement, allegedly for not paying a $300,000 drug debt.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby galacticsurfer » Fri 21 Nov 2008, 11:32:04

Italian and other Mafia slayings occur in germany for example. Theunderground economy is maybe 10% of global gDP and grwoing a lot faster as it pays no taxes. Once legitimate economy goes under I wonder what willhappen wtih criminal synidcates. For example in a GDII will mafias of all types go groke as nobody can afford drugs (luxury article)? And will mafias get swept away by authoritarian regimes of right or left? Perhaps the mafia is just a sing of destabilizing in the country and will go underground in a Mexican civil war that breaks out when oil is gone in 2-3 years.
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Re: Mexico collapse watch thread

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 22 Dec 2008, 09:56:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')exican police discovered the heads of nine men in plastic bags yesterday, seven of them belonging to soldiers who had taken part in a military crackdown on the drug cartels.

Their tortured bodies were found a few hours later at the side of a motorway an hour north of Acapulco in the southern state of Guerrero.

More than 5,300 people have been murdered across Mexico this year in a wave of drug-related attacks, despite a government clampdown on cartels involving the deployment of 36,000 troops across the country.

Residents of the town of Chilpancingo found the heads before dawn, local police said in a statement.
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