[Sys1]

Graeme, we the so called "Peak oil believers" are in fact a group of communists morrons.
Since 2000, we as a whole manipulated Wall Street in order to put oil to 147$ : For that, we posted threads where we spoke about many hoaxes like peak oil, global warming, Jaevon paradox, Olduvai theory, exponential growth, depletion of minerals/water. After confusing main street medias, oil went up and we earned a lot of money.
I, for example, bought a castle in Spain as a reward.

Then we decided to let people like you, John Denver and Lorenzo tell the truth, meaning that peak oil, global warming blah blah is a communist joke. It's here that we the so called "peak oil believers" earn much more money, as we knew real estate market would collapse and we bet our money on that.

Now please stop posting new threads, Graeme. We the the so called "peak oil believers" are going to make oil going up again because we need more SUV in our McMansion houses.

[TheDude]

Anything that leads off with a growth-is-infinite remark from an economist can be safely chucked into the trash.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he charts, however, were telling another tale to anyone who cared to listen to their whisperings. Crude oil had all the characteristics of a bubble and it has imploded like one too. Looking at a long-term chart, you can see that it has easily sliced through the long-term uptrend line.

[Heineken]

What we get in a recession (or depression) is an involuntary powering down. It is dangerous or foolish or wrong to confuse the current condition with a return to the Wild West days of next-to-free energy or to start using it to scapegoat "peak oil believers."

We now actually have negative economic growth. Is it any surprise that oil barrels are piling up at the ports?

The same energy constraints that emerged during the recently departed economic boom are still there. Masked, but there. They will bare themselves again more terribly than before.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'A')nything that leads off with a growth-is-infinite remark from an economist can be safely chucked into the trash.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'H')ow dare you question our theory! ...

[Graeme]

Thanks Pops, I was bracing myself for yet more abuse but it didn't happen from you. The timing is partly the point of the thread.

The main point is the way that the Saudis (OPEC) are managing their reserves. You can see in the chart in the original post that in the past cuts in production did eventually affect the price of oil. And in my later post, Dr Saleri assures us that there are "plenty" of reserves in the ME (peak oil is "out of sight"). He says it is a question of investment and that investment has already been made.

I understand why peak oilers are anxious because they think that production decline is already rapid, and the cavalry is too far away. I share their concern and this is the reason I'm posting here. I'm looking for evidence of slower decline or steady production and good management (this thread). I'm also looking for evidence that alternative energy is beginning to developed worldwide (most of my other threads). Finally, it is.

[Tyler_JC]

Since when does "Peak Oil Theory" require constant upward movement in oil prices?

Oil prices fluctuate, we all know that. But if you look at the long term trends, all signs point towards higher prices.

The last time the global economy entered a serious recession, oil prices fell into the low $20s (inflation adjusted). Does anyone expect that to happen this time?

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'T')hanks Pops, I was bracing myself for yet more abuse but it didn't happen from you. The timing is partly the point of the thread.

The main point is the way that the Saudis (OPEC) are managing their reserves. You can see in the chart in the original post that in the past cuts in production did eventually affect the price of oil. And in my later post, Dr Saleri assures us that there are "plenty" of reserves in the ME (peak oil is "out of sight"). He says it is a question of investment and that investment has already been made.

I understand why peak oilers are anxious because they think that production decline is already rapid, and the cavalry is too far away. I share their concern and this is the reason I'm posting here. I'm looking for evidence of slower decline or steady production and good management (this thread). I'm also looking for evidence that alternative energy is beginning to developed worldwide (most of my other threads). Finally, it is.

[lper100km]

Economics is only the backdrop and pricing is only the response to panic or complacency. The irrefutable fact is that in boom times or depression, oil is still being sucked out of the ground, leading inexorably to effective depletion at some time. If the peak has already occurred, which many think is the case, then the present reduction in consumption will only flatten the depletion curve somewhat but not ever make it rise. The inevitable fall over the cliff will be delayed, but not by much.

The problem with economics is that the pricing structure makes people complacent again when there is a temporary oversupply. Investment and research into alternatives will slow and capital will be allocated elsewhere. Then, as the price again escalates, but more rapidly and higher due to rising demand and lowered production capability, we are into another crisis. This time we are even less prepared and have even less time and resources to respond. So it will go, a volatile ratcheting down the depletion curve, like some manic depressive in denial.

We’re probably at the first turn of the screw now.

[lowem]

The peakoilers have been cheering the current oil price drop all the way to the $60 level, and chanting "demand destruction, demand destruction!". We have been cheering it on all the way up, and vice versa all the way down, because in the real world there's not much to cheer about ...

[Graeme]

I just received a PM from HeckuvaJob about Thomas Friedman's new book - "Hot Flat and Crowed".

I'd like to share this with you.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lper100km', 'E')conomics is only the backdrop and pricing is only the response to panic or complacency. The irrefutable fact is that in boom times or depression, oil is still being sucked out of the ground, leading inexorably to effective depletion at some time. If the peak has already occurred, which many think is the case, then the present reduction in consumption will only flatten the depletion curve somewhat but not ever make it rise. The inevitable fall over the cliff will be delayed, but not by much.

The problem with economics is that the pricing structure makes people complacent again when there is a temporary oversupply. Investment and research into alternatives will slow and capital will be allocated elsewhere. Then, as the price again escalates, but more rapidly and higher due to rising demand and lowered production capability, we are into another crisis. This time we are even less prepared and have even less time and resources to respond. So it will go, a volatile ratcheting down the depletion curve, like some manic depressive in denial.

We’re probably at the first turn of the screw now.

[AgentR]

Peak oil is the same problem; regardless of whether the current spot price for a barrel of crude is $20 or $200.

Steady or decreasing availability of a consumable commodity.
Guaranteed long term increase in desired rate of consumption.

The above is not a problem for moments in time where the current availability exceeds reasonably priced desired consumption. It only becomes a problem when that rate of consumption hits the upper bound of availability; which unfortunately for us, it finally did.

As a result, we now have severe price volatility, destruction of demand, loss of jobs, uncertain financial markets, and politicians that are promising to throw bread to the mob to keep them cheering wildly, impotently, inside, in front of the Multimedia Shackle Device of their choosing.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'P')eak oil is the same problem; regardless of whether the current spot price for a barrel of crude is $20 or $200.

Steady or decreasing availability of a consumable commodity.
Guaranteed long term increase in desired rate of consumption.

[dohboi]

The price of oil and gas is becoming irrelevant to more and more people around the world. If you don't have a job and can't pay your bills, it doesn't matter what price oil or gas is, they can't afford it.

Peak oil was never at base about price, it was about extraction rates, and those continue to point to the peak being right about now, give or take a few years.

I must confess, I never thought I would see gasoline under $2/gal. again. But this just points out how wild the (predicted by many here) fluctuations are getting to be.

As I have said elsewhere, we have left the bumpy plateau and are entering the spiky plateau, and from there....?

It's what happens on the way to loosing control of your car going 90mph on an icy road--you feel yourself sliding one way so you steer the other way, then you go to far that way and you jerk the steering wheel back...pretty soon you are just spinning down the highway, everything in the car swirling around you, praying you hit a soft snow bank rather than something hard.

Graeme and others seem to think that, after the first turn of the steering wheel, we have corrected all problems.

We are just at the beginning of this process.

Wait.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]Where Have All the Peak Oil Believers Gone? Comments anyone?

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uaranteed long term increase in desired rate of consumption.

[Tyler_JC]

"Desire" to consume oil is called demand.

It drops in the long term if the price of a resource increases relative to its alternatives.



US meat demand changed over time as the price of beef increased relative to the price of chicken.

The same will happen to energy.

As oil prices increase relative to the price of other energy sources, consumers will shift their demand away from oil and towards ... something else.

The problem, and the reason for the existence of this forum, is that the "something else" won't be as good as oil. As a result, we will suffer a reduced standard of living and have to adjust our society accordingly.

I'm beginning to believe that people don't understand physics around here. You can't consume something that doesn't exist. Consumers can't increase demand for a resource they don't have access to. Demand forecasts for future oil consumption are CRASHING and have been for years.

Ever wonder why the Club of Rome was wrong?

They were wrong because they didn't understand that all important disclaimer, "Past Performance is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results."

Past trends in demand do not necessarily reflect future consumption patterns.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '"')Desire" to consume oil is called demand.

[AgentR]

To restate:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Agentr', 'T')he above is not a problem for moments in time where the current availability exceeds reasonably priced desired consumption. It only becomes a problem when that rate of consumption hits the upper bound of availability; which unfortunately for us, it finally did.