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PeakOil is You

Reverse Engineer's Explanation of Markets and Investing

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 06:31:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', ',') I know two of them who are fathers of children I teach,


Have a good school day.
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Re: Solutions to Global Monetary System Meltdown

Unread postby manu » Mon 22 Sep 2008, 06:42:47

Give everyone in the U.S. a billion $ because this is what they think will make them happy. After they find out that they are still not happy then they can think about living simple. The rat race changed into a lemming race. Now the lemmings are at the cliff and it doesn't look so good to them. The lemmings made their choices long ago and now they will reap what they have sown. The nightmare has just begun. So no need to change your life, just continue the same old same old untill Mother Nature comes stomping thru your city with her nuclear boots.
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Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 06:06:20

Discussion has been rampant around here regarding just WHER to invest your moneyou (assuming you have some). Gold, Guns, Bullets, just what the heck is going to hold value here, what will store well, what might you Trade with? I am going to present a few things I think you might Buy now at cheap prices which I think will go a lot further toward giving you some "currency" than a Kruggerrand will.

Guns and Bullets, while important for your personal protection probably are not a good thing to invest megabucks in. Decent chance such thigs get confiscated at some point here, and its almost impossible to buy either guns or bulets legally and not have it traceable to your ownership. Similarly, you couldn't buy that much gold even if you could find possesible gold for ownership without it being traceable to you.

Buying lots of food of course is good, but it does go bad over time, even the freeze dried Mountain House stuff does not last indefinitely. So WHAT should you invest in here?

#1 SHOES. In many sizes,you can buy childrens sneakers at Walmart right now for about $10 a pop. They all come from China, but not for long. Children grow and they always need new shoes. If you have a good supply, you will be able to sell them in markets for a good deal more relatively speaking than you pay for them now.

#2 Clothing- Socks, Underwear and Jeans. remember in the old days of the Soviet Union, you could fund an entire trip to Europe just wit a few extra pair of Jeans in your bag.

#3 Tools- Hand Tools are currently cheap, but they will be hard to come by and necessary for people trying to maintain a decaying house or car.

#4 Propane/Gas Cannisters Chances are some distribution system remains for Gas, but if you do not have the cannisters to store this tuff, you won't be able to buy it or store it. At about $50 a pop, portable propane tanks are a good trade item.

You can also Prep yourself to make a living by buying some important machines you might not own now. A Sewing Machine would be a good purchase. They are mostly electric, but can be adapted to mechanical power as the first ones were when Singer introduced them. Clothing won't be cheap and replaceable anymore, so fixing up people's clothing could put a morsel of bread in your mouth.

If you have a decent size basement, you could buy 1000 pair of socks at $1 a piece now at Walmart, and they will last forever basically. I 5 years, those socks will be worth more than GOLD.

If you have lots of storage room, buy maybe 10 Bicycles you can buy today at $100-$300 at Walmart. All made in China, not likely to be so available in a couple of years. Necessary transportation and one of those Bikes could get you a month or more of food in trade.

The BASICS of what people need are what you want to invest in. Products we take for granted now which won't be availble in the future. You can go out tomorrow and buy a few of these things and store them. I spend a few dollars of each paycheck buying such things. They are my Savings from the years of plenty. They will always have value. Underwear ALWAYS holds its value.

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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby MD » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 06:18:39

You are talking about hoarding real wealth here? I thought the wealthy deserved to be shot because they are holding wealth at the expense of others?

Or do you intend to share freely all of your hoarded goods when need arises?
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 06:25:39

I try and do a similar thing. I have tools and equipment with spares that mean I can carry out more or less any repair job (of a fashion). I'm also trying to build up a stock of spirit's which I think will be useful in future.

Even if you can't buy enough to store, I think its worth making sure you've got tools with spares that are of a good enough quality to last (including power tools). I've got decent battery powered tools that I charge from solar power which I'm hoping will be a boon in future.

If you live in a community where people stick together, lending equipment might provide a way of ensuring you've got food on the table. When I was a kid, my mate's dad was the only person in the neighbourhood with a power drill. I never saw him buy a drink.

I agree about clothes, but with short term deflation it might be worth holding back on purchasing yet.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 06:29:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'Y')ou are talking about hoarding real wealth here? I thought the wealthy deserved to be shot because they are holding wealth at the expense of others?

Or do you intend to share freely all of your hoarded goods when need arises?


Door Number 3 Monte! LOL.

I store all this stuff to be prepared to share it and help my friends. I'll give the socks and underwear awa to the children who I steward. I am not in it to make a profit off it, I am in it to Save As Many as I Can. I do not have all that much wealth, but I am trying to be smart about how I spend it and what I choose to buy to be of maximum help to my community.

You won't nail me here as being greedy. The intention is to share it, not to hoard it ;-)

Keep trying though. You might catch me out on a philosophical error at some point MD :-)

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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby MD » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 07:52:52

To get back on topic:

Healthy Soil and Clean Water.

There are your "real commodities".

Yes, I invest in both.

As for all the manufactured goods that you are calling commodities? I have sufficient supplies but I'm not stocking up. When the Chinese trade routes shut down we'll have to figure out how to make all that stuff ourselves again. An extra pair of $19 injection-molded sneakers (that won't hold up to even a single week of real hard work) isn't worth my attention right now.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 08:40:01

Agree, but getting through crisis times might need a broader approach.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'T')o get back on topic:

Healthy Soil and Clean Water.

There are your "real commodities".

Yes, I invest in both.

As for all the manufactured goods that you are calling commodities? I have sufficient supplies but I'm not stocking up. When the Chinese trade routes shut down we'll have to figure out how to make all that stuff ourselves again. An extra pair of $19 injection-molded sneakers (that won't hold up to even a single week of real hard work) isn't worth my attention right now.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby MD » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 09:02:27

Sure. Let's get back into grass-roots manufacturing through a low-energy paradigm. Local food and clothing production using local renewable resources while getting used to working much harder and having far fewer toys.

This is what Americans are faced with whether we like it or not. If we choose to move forward, we may experience less pain in the transition.

Pardon my cynicism but appears we're choosing the brick wall approach instead.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Quinny', 'A')gree, but getting through crisis times might need a broader approach.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'T')o get back on topic:

Healthy Soil and Clean Water.

There are your "real commodities".

Yes, I invest in both.

As for all the manufactured goods that you are calling commodities? I have sufficient supplies but I'm not stocking up. When the Chinese trade routes shut down we'll have to figure out how to make all that stuff ourselves again. An extra pair of $19 injection-molded sneakers (that won't hold up to even a single week of real hard work) isn't worth my attention right now.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby kpeavey » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 09:13:51

My general guideline in investing is to cover my arse first. What good is investing in gold or stocks when there is no food in the house? All too often I've seen tenants buy a new TV or fancy car, and then be late on the rent.

Stocking goods to a comfortable level needs to be first on a priority list. Members of a consumer economy have been taught to get what is needed for a week, with no worry about the future, even a future a couple of weeks away.

Increasing your comfort level from a weeks supply of goods to several weeks, to several months offers a fine return n your investment in terms of peace of mind. What are we talking, a few grand? With food, tools, clothing, and supplies on hand to carry you for a while, you can look at investing in from a different viewpoint.

This is not how most people think, as they have not experienced crisis. Food is as close as the nearest supermarket. Get a cold, head for the corner pharmacy. Leaky pipes is a phone call to a plumber. Flip a switch, the lights are on because you paid the bill, a couple days late, but its paid.

Leadership is nearsighted, focusing on the problems of the day. Today it's the economy and the election, nothing else is newsworthy.

Around here we tend towards farsightedness...what's coming down the road. Supermarkets with out of stock products, blackouts, fuel shortages, an economy in a shambles, global militarism, social collapse and dieoff.

If you think these problems do not need some preparations on your behalf for your own good, then by all means, invest in Chrysler, I hear the shares are low right now. If you think a few thousand bucks invested in supplies you use every day makes a sound investment, then good for you. You are moving in a direction that will help you maintain your lifestyle in a time of change. That small investment will ease your suffering.

How far you are willing to go is up to you. If an apartment with a weeks worth of food in the cupboards is comfortable, more power to you. If a couple of acres with chickens and an apple tree works, that's fine. If dozens of acres with fields, barns, woods, orchards, running streams, a pond, a root cellar and neighbors with every form of livestock available works for you, who am I to criticize.

Get your ducks in a row before you start investing your hard earned assets in something you don't know everything about. I understand potatoes, tomatoes, apples, and chickens. I know little about Mutual T Bill Interest Funds or Sub Par Derivative Call Contracts. Why would I invest in them?

If I have shoes to last me 5 years, the ability to grow enough food to last me all year, and a heat source that will get me through the winter, then maybe I'll take the time to study Paramutual Foreign Credit Stock Trades.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 11:25:21

Shit - I thought I was the only one who'd found the unbelievable returns available from PFCST!!:)
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 18:33:30

Sorry I forgot to say - I'm also investing in chocolate! :)
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 18:47:32

REngineer--Underwear is a great idea, because that's something nobody wants to wear second hand.

I listened to this show on recession proofing your life, yesterday. They mentioned sewing and alterations, and did an interview with a seamstress/tailor who said business was way up, in the alteration end. People aren't buying new, they're making do. So anyone looking for work who is handy should think about it. My husband still maintains that if we hit hard times, he plans to get an industrial sewing machines and learn how to make canvas covers and sails for boats.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby Loki » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 20:08:54

Sorry RE, but I think your first post was absolutely awful advice. Cheap Chinese shoes as an investment? No, no, no. Terrible advice.

As it happens, FerFAL just addressed this very subject on his blog. It's well worth reading. Mistakes Survivalists Make

Buying a few pair of good work boots that will last you a decade or more is a good investment (I personally like Red Wings---I've walked over 1000 miles in a pair I bought in 2002 and I still wear them every other day). Getting a good sewing machine and learning to make your own clothes is an excellent investment. Getting some land and quality tools to grow your own food is an excellent investment. Learning multiple work skills is an excellent investment. But a basement full of cheap Chinese shoes, underwear, and socks? Horrible investment.

As for guns and ammo being confiscated, there's an extremely low probability of that. I have much better things to worry about than some jackboot knocking on my door asking me about that case of Lake City .308 I bought 5 years ago. Ammo is an excellent investment. PMs go up and down in price, but ammo just goes up. Buy it cheap, stack it deep.

If you want to use your basement for a fool-proof post-apocalypse investment, set up a still or a grow operation. No one ever went broke selling liquor and pot.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 20:27:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'S')orry RE, but I think your first post was absolutely awful advice. Cheap Chinese shoes as an investment? No, no, no. Terrible advice.


For your OWN shoes, a high quality pair of good boots is an essential investment. I have several pairs of high quality Herman Survivors that will last well into the next millenium I am sure when I hand them off to my heirs.

Like mine however, YOUR feet do not GROW. Children go through shoes rapidly, and a well shod child is less likely to get cuts and infections on her feet that will limit her life span. Don't buy ADULT cheap shoes, buy CHILDRENS cheap shoes. Assuming you want the society to survive, who do you need to protect here? The children. Why do you think Imelda Marcos who grew up in poverty had such a shoe fetish? Protect the feet, you go a long way toward helping the human race survive.

I'm all for a good supply of Guns and Bullets though. Along with Crossbows, Compound Bows, Traps, Fishing Tackle and about anything else you can hunt with, fish with or protect yourself with. LOL.

I'm also all for the idea that the Pen is Mightier than the Sword. I got an ENDLESS supply here, more bullets here than I know what to do with. :-)

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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby Arsenal » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 20:37:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ReverseEngineer', '
')I'm also all for the idea that the Pen is Mightier than the Sword. I got an ENDLESS supply here, more bullets here than I know what to do with. :-)

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If you have more than you know what to do with then you aren't practicing enough. :twisted:
If the American people ever allow the banks to control issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers occupied. T Jefferson
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby Loki » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 20:42:33

I just reread FerFAL's post. It's like he was responding directly to the OP. Weird.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FerFAL', 'b')) The barter items thing is also pretty strange. I don’t see how it could possibly be a smart idea to buy goods to sell or trade after a crisis, surely not in the quantities suggested by some people. Beats me, are they going to set up a shop in their garages and sell everything? Would you buy food an other supplies from a guy that sells it with no possible way of verifying the conditions under which the food was kept? How much of a profit could you possibly make , comparing to having saved that same amount of money in gold, for example?
I don’t understand it and I don’t know of anyone that made a profit by doing this. Yet, people stock up on TP and many other cheap, easily obtainable items thinking that it will be “worth it’s weight in gold” after the crisis. Newsflash: if it’s cheap and easy to produce, it will keep being that way AFTER tshtf.
Some guys advice to “invest” in such goods, tools, food and supplies for after TSHTF. No, no , no. 200 or 500 bucks worth of tools rusting away in the shed is not an investment. Its’ 200 bucks worth of tools for which you don’t have any use. That’s not an investment.
An investment generates money, while products rotting away in some basement does nothing for you.
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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 20:49:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'I') just reread FerFAL's post. It's like he was responding directly to the OP. Weird.


Ferfal's Argentina actually still IS connected to the rest of the world, and the rest of the world still does send goods to Argentina. A local collapse of the monetary system is not the same thing as a systemic collapse.

Ferfal projects cheap goods will ALWAYS be available, and they still are in Argentina. I would argue that the same thing will not be true in a general systemic collapse.

When I drove the Big Rig, I pulled a LOT of Toilet Paper around. Paper Mills are highly energy intensive and the product is bulky to move as well.

Unless you like using leaves, toilet paper ALSO would be a good commodity to invest in.

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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 20:57:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Arsenal', '
')
If you have more than you know what to do with then you aren't practicing enough. :twisted:


The Bullets I am speaking of are the words I write Arsenal, and if you ask about anyone here I practice out on the Firing Range of Peak Oil far too much already. Diarreah of the Keyboard. LOL.

In any event, constant practice keeps my aim true :-)

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Re: Investing in REAL Commodities

Unread postby Loki » Sat 01 Nov 2008, 20:59:40

Well guess we'll just have to agree to disagree RE. I'm not a true believer when it comes to this "everything will collapse and we'll be back to the stone age" meme. Sorry, but I think it's Chicken Little stuff. Yes, there's an uncomfortably high probability that we'll be living in a grinding Greater Depression for many years (perhaps a generation or more). But TEOTWAWKI? The probability of that is exceptionally low, too low to devote my entire life to.

Besides, if the world as we know it ends so thoroughly, my preps in guns, ammo, and urban agriculture will still be good ones. I'll grow my own food to eat, I'll produce a product that everyone will still need, plus I'll be able to shoot the zombies who try to eat my kale. That's what zombies like to eat, right, kale?

As for wiping my ass....what, nobody wiped their ass prior to the invention of the toilet paper factories and 18 wheelers?
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