by smallpoxgirl » Tue 28 Oct 2008, 20:03:44
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('davep', 'S')PG, MrBill, anyone? Can you explain how the volatility of crude options is calculated?
There are two different volatility numbers that have significance.
The price of an option contract is established by supply and demand. Wherever an equal number of people want to sell and buy the option contract, that's the current price. That price is composed of two pieces: intrinsic value, and time value. Intrinsic value is the amount by which the option is in the money. Out of the money options, by definition, have zero intrinsic value. People break the time value out into different pieces, and eventually end up calculating a number called implied volatility. Implied volatility reflects the fact that in volatile markets there is a greater chance of out-of-the-money options becoming in-the-money before expiration. Thus options are more expensive in volatile markets than calm markets. This is important because, say you're trying to swing trade call options. You buy a call option, the price goes up, you sell your option. If the implied volatility went down in the meantime, you're going to make less money or maybe even lose money, so you have to pay attention to changes in implied volatility.
The other important volatility number is historic volatility. Historic volatility is calculated from old price data. People compare historic volatility to implied volatility to try to decide if an option is a good deal at it's current price or not.
If you want to learn more about options pricing, the Chicago Board of Options Exchange has a free online class here:
link