[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOilDebunked', 'I')t's official. Peak oil is a loser. It blew a tire on the curve, and lost the TEOTWAWKI 500 to the ongoing US financial meltdown. Valiant efforts are being made at the peak oil sites to maintain interest and somehow blame the collapse on oil, or at least find some flimsy connection... to no avail. The PO community is looking increasingly like the village idiot who warned everybody about the tornado, just before the big flood hit.

Now that most of Wall Street has been vaporized, peak oil isn't going to be the hot cottage industry it once was. The groupies will now shift to the real rockstars of the global collapse blogosphere -- the finance doomers. Pity the poor peak oil sites... viewers melting away like the Greenland icesheet, page views slumping like WaMu stock...
Amidst the carnage, we can single out one man for some well-deserved kudos. That would be Mike Lynch, who called oil "the mother of all bubbles" on April 21.

[RSFB]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eak Oil: Who Cares?

[seahorse2]

1. World oil production essentially peaked/plateaued at about 85mbpd. Do you think that plateau was geologic limit?

2. World oil production essentially peaked/plateaued in 2005 at about 85mbpd while world GDP was growing (increasing demand for energy). Do you think that plateau in oil production was a cause of the high oil/energy prices or do you think it was just speculation?

3. There are questions on this forum about the effect of lower oil prices on oil production. As you know, existing fields are in decline. Those declines have to be offset by new production, unless of course, world oil demand drops faster than declines in existing fields. Do you think world oil demand will drop faster than declines in existing fields?

4. I personally wonder whether lower oil prices will exacerbate the oil production limits we seemed to be reaching. My own beliefs were that a geologic peak in oil production would not occur until about 2012 - 2014, assuming demand increased at the predicted rates. The problem with dropping demand and dropping oil prices seems to be that necessary investment in new oil production in offshore fields and harder to reach develop places will not occur, and thus, oil production will in fact decline bc existing fields will decline. It seems plausible to me we could get a feedback loop where demand for oil and declines in existing fields "race for the bottom" causing serious economic harm.

5. You assume that the recession or developing depression is not related to energy prices and a plateau in oil production. Assuming this is true, you then draw the conclusion that the "doomer fantasies" have been avoided. How is that? The classic doomer arguments always argued that a drop in world oil production would cause a depression. A depression is a depression is it not? How is a recession or a depression ever a good thing?

[VMarcHart]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakOilDebunked', 'T')he PO community is looking increasingly like the village idiot who warned everybody about the tornado, just before the big flood hit.

[ROCKMAN]

I can imagine this sort of conversation going on for many years to come. PO is a geological reality. Its validity isn’t based upon oil price at any point in time. If global consumption were to drop 50% and hold there indefinitely PO would still exist. Its impact, on the other hand, would be delayed decades. Two different animals: PO and the price of oil. PO determines the maximum deliverability of oil. Pricing will be controlled by above ground factors. The demand destruction caused by the price spike and the current economic downturn will determine the price of oil. Maximum production rate will always be there below the surface. But the above ground factors, IMO, will always determine oil pricing. But PO will affect some of those above ground factors to a degree. Just as the oil price spike of the late 70’s didn’t prove the validity of PO, the current price of oil doesn’t disprove PO.

The next above ground factor which has a huge potential to effect oil prices is OPEC’s current efforts to finally establish itself as a true cartel. Are we facing a potential increase in oil prices as the world slips deeper into recession? OPEC discipline will determine this scenario. But that won’t be the end of the story: what will be the global political/military response to such a successful move by OPEC. IMHO there are many credible scenarios that be constructed now. But believe anyone can predict which will play out still seems a fool’s game.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', '1'). World oil production essentially peaked/plateaued at about 85mbpd. Do you think that plateau was geologic limit?
2. World oil production essentially peaked/plateaued in 2005 at about 85mbpd while world GDP was growing (increasing demand for energy). Do you think that plateau in oil production was a cause of the high oil/energy prices or do you think it was just speculation?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Carlhole', 'A')nd I have been anxious for the nation at large to get serious about alternative energy. The Doom crowd doesn't appear to believe that human beings are capable of making adaptations at all.

[Leanan]

What is happening is exactly what many peak oilers predicted. "The Second Great Depression," "The Grand Depression," etc. Deffeyes has been warning about this for years.

I am more pessimistic than ever. Without credit, how will alternate energy be developed, or new infrastructure built?

[galacticsurfer]

Like if we had the Depletion Protocol and threw out the total free market spot prices and say had intergovernmental fixed contracts over years plus rationing schemes then everything would appear smooth on the surface. Prices are no indication of geological realities.

In other words if PO was a govt. given and not just ignored as the system is based totally on growth all would be different. They keep trying to grow the system so it busts down regularly in a climbing sawtooth pattern(economy up then oil prices climb then economy crashes and oil price crashes, repeat). Peak energy per capita was in 1970s or 1980 or something and since then it has been downhill. So debt has substituted for real growth(plus East Asian manpower and Chinese coal to make absolute global GDP larger over time) and we have pollyanna creep in all economic indicators to hide the real shrinking economy. Since growth is a fiction based on fake numbers the bubble keeps bursting as real resources don't keep up wtih printing presses(or fractional lending in this case). USA exurbia was a bridge too far for oil prices and Chinese 10% growth for coal and copper and aluminium prices.

When or if a depleton protocol with rationing will be worked into a global system we cannot tell. As long as Mammon is God and growth is highest doctrinal purity then we cannot deal with shortages except through military conflict. This realization breeds, particularly among the male of the species, a juvenile fantasy of herosim and slaughter. Commonsense management of a gradual declin in population does not seem to sink in well with A Type personalities who tend to float up to the top of the heap in our government and corporate structures. It seems therefore that juvenile hormone directed fantasies will be played out when shortages become real in the West, just as currently is the case in Pakistan and elsehwere in terms of electricity and food shortages.

[forbin]

a biased report from the group that wants tax cuts

I heard again today on the news, tax cut will get us all saved

big government is the problem

no sorry , its not , tax cuts are the problem , that lot have had their way in the past decade or more . tax cuts go us into this mess and peak oil will not be solved by tax cuts ( ok we'll get a little more oil if taxes are cut on exploration , if there's much to find)

but NOT more tax cust for the rich !

oh don't cry for poor old peak oil , these people are the same shamsters that come out of the woodwork every time theoil price dips

I seriosly doubt that can spell geology

so no panic peak oil has happend for texas , north sea and cantarell

Forbin.

[ROCKMAN]

So no PO at Cantarell, eh Forbin? Congratulations: you definitely etched your credibility in granite now.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')As part of the Doom crowd, I'm waiting anxiously to see the nation at large get serious about alternative energy before I believe they are capable of making that particular adaptation.

Still waiting....

Still waiting....

Now that gas prices are much lower I expect to be waiting even longer....

[galacticsurfer]

US and Western 70s stagflation was due to West Texas PO ca. 1970. This total economic meltdown is result of Global PO.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('galacticsurfer', 'U')S and Western 70s stagflation was due to West Texas PO ca. 1970. This total economic meltdown is result of Global PO.

[Carlhole]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'W')hat is happening is exactly what many peak oilers predicted. "The Second Great Depression," "The Grand Depression," etc. Deffeyes has been warning about this for years.

I am more pessimistic than ever. Without credit, how will alternate energy be developed, or new infrastructure built?

[ROCKMAN]

mos,

I hope your optimism is rewarded. I've long since given up much hope for the White House (regardless of which party wins) to have any real effect on our daily lives (other than commiting us to war, of course). I'm not even sure the Congress can collectively produce significant change in our long term planning. The two-party system has effectively eliminated much ability to generate a systemic correction. I can only see them jointly continue to manipulate the public with the blame game rather than admit culpability and address the critical issues honestly.

[TheDude]

Thanks for the article, Carl.

I'm concerned about the geopolitical fallout when the supply begins to drop year after year as well. Read Yergin's account of the jockeying that went down in '73 and '79, it was quite a mess even with short term supply shocks. Now imagine that going on year after year.

[Carlhole]

Was It Deliberate?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ken Deffeyes', 'I')n a fascinating piece in the October 16, 2008 Denver Post, W. Jackson Davis points out that peak oil probably triggered the present crisis, but he says that economists were blindsided as if "a 'secret signal' sent out in 2007 slammed the economy with soaring energy and food costs, and the free-fall of housing prices." Could it have been an actual signal message?...

[SuperTico]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'A')s part of the Doom crowd, I'm waiting anxiously to see the nation at large get serious about alternative energy before I believe they are capable of making that particular adaptation. Still waiting.... Still waiting.... Now that gas prices are much lower I expect to be waiting even longer....

[aswerfawf]

i think the explaination for some doomers is that they secretly want this culture, this society, this civilization to be destroyed. peak oil, like the other crisis cults of the past (i'm talking about christianity and zorastrianism) have capitalized on this intense desire to destroy societies which hold us captive. unfortunately, they also have the tendency to replace concrete action with faith and put all their energy into preparing for the fire of god. however, hoping for the collapse won't hasten it any more than building a root celler will.