THE Marburg Virus Thread

by **BabyPeanut** » Sat 26 Mar 2005, 10:24:14

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=614152
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')eath Toll From Ebola-Like Virus in Northern Angola Rises in 112, With Cases Now Reported in Lusaka

by **RIPSmithianEconomics** » Sat 26 Mar 2005, 13:57:19

Isn't Angola being groomed by the US right now?

by **RonMN** » Sat 26 Mar 2005, 14:02:43

Ebola...the bird flu (H5N1)...peak oil...Tsunami...next thing ya know is the yellowstone super-volcano will erupt. It's enough to make ya wanna pour a cocktail!

by **BabyPeanut** » Sun 27 Mar 2005, 12:37:14

112 -> 121 in one day.
http://www.bakutoday.net/afps/english/s ... vqiyt.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')arburg claims death in Angola, five more including Portuguese ill

March 27, 2005, 17:07 gmt

LUANDA (AFP) - Another person has died of the Marburg virus in Angola and five more people, including a Portuguese citizen, were hospitalised, bringing the toll from the Ebola-like disease to 121 deaths and 132 ill, officials said.

by **Petro** » Sun 27 Mar 2005, 12:49:12

Yeah suspect nature? Or, technology?

See also: http://www.cnn.com/2005/WORLD/asiapcf/0 ... index.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')bola...the bird flu (H5N1)...peak oil...Tsunami...next thing ya know is the yellowstone super-volcano will erupt. It's enough to make ya wanna pour a cocktail!

by **BabyPeanut** » Sun 27 Mar 2005, 16:35:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Petro', 'Y')eah suspect nature? Or, technology?

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Sun 27 Mar 2005, 16:48:13

The Hot Zone, a bestseller from a few years back describes the effects of ebola. Yikes! Can't imagine anything more horrible. Unfortunately (or fortunately) I don't have my copy of it anymore. This virus turns your insides into mush - a big bag viral juice. Then you go into these convulsions and spray the shit all around. Other grusome stuff best left unsaid. Anybody know if they ever found the natural vector?

by **BabyPeanut** » Tue 29 Mar 2005, 13:35:20

http://www.afrol.com/articles/15988
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')frol News, 29 March - Concerns are growing internationally as the outbreak of the Ebola-like Marburg virus is spreading in Angola. With 126 confirmed deaths, this is already the largest Marburg outbreak ever recorded. Infections are now also reported outside Angola's Uige province and among health workers.

...

As is the case with Ebola, scientists hold that the natural reservoir of the Marburg virus is in the region's ape population. It probably spreads to human as a result of ape hunting and preparation of bushmeat, under which there are close contacts with bodily fluids of the infected ape. During an outbreak, the disease is believed to spread by "close contact with bodily fluids of infected people," according to WHO.

by **BabyPeanut** » Fri 01 Apr 2005, 20:20:48

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/conten ... rburg.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The governor of Uige province in northern Angola, the center of the outbreak, said the province alone has had 150 cases, including 142 deaths, according to an Agence France-Presse (AFP) report today.

The largest previous Marburg outbreak, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, involved 149 cases with 123 deaths from 1998 to 2000.

In a statement today, the World Health Organization (WHO) put the size of the outbreak at 140 cases with 132 deaths as of yesterday. Just yesterday the WHO reported 132 cases with 127 deaths and said the case-patients included 12 healthcare workers.

by **BabyPeanut** » Tue 05 Apr 2005, 16:08:35

Herald Sun
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')THE deadly marburg virus in Angola has overtaken its more famous cousin, ebola, with a higher case-to-death ratio, the country's health minister said yesterday. The death toll climbed to 155 out of 175 cases, up five from earlier in the day.

"It's a very grave epidemic, because its mortality-to-case proportion is very high. Scientific studies about marburg shows a 32 per cent case-to-death ratio and here we have more than 90 per cent. It is higher than ebola," Sebastioa Veloso said.

by **ohanian** » Fri 08 Apr 2005, 01:59:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
t cases death
March 22 0 107 100 0.06335 42.9387 64.0613
March 23 1 a k c
March 24 2 n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
March 25 3
March 26 4 Predicted cases
March 27 5 123 115 123.0015086
March 28 6 126.8561785
March 29 7 130.9629424
March 30 8 135.3382873
March 31 9 140 139.9997784
April 1 10 144.9661293
April 2 11 150.257278
April 3 12 155.8944659
April 4 13 161.9003241
April 5 14 168.2989634
April 6 15 175.1160716
April 7 16 200 182.3790163
April 8 17 190.1169552
April 9 18 198.3609527
April 10 19 207.1441048
April 11 20 216.5016721
April 12 21 226.4712212
April 13 22 237.0927755
April 14 23 248.4089758
April 15 24 260.4652519
April 16 25 273.3100043
April 17 26 286.9947992
April 18 27 301.5745751
April 19 28 317.1078635
April 20 29 333.6570237
April 21 30 351.2884934
April 22 31 370.0730553
April 23 32 390.0861212
April 24 33 411.4080349
April 25 34 434.1243947
April 26 35 458.3263967
April 27 36 484.1112014
April 28 37 511.5823238
April 29 38 540.8500483
April 30 39 572.0318722

')

by **entropyfails** » Fri 08 Apr 2005, 07:47:46

Any year end upper and lower bound predictions that you can give?

It may have hit South Africa.

http://www.sabcnews.com/south_africa/he ... 51,00.html

We'll see how your predictions go this month. Thanks for the assessment.

---
EntropyFails
Visit the Peak Oil Wiki at http://www.peakoil.com/wiki and add content!

by **PhilBiker** » Fri 08 Apr 2005, 09:12:29

From reading the history of the virus from the Medical Dictionary, it appears that this may be the worst outbreak ever.

NPR Story

by **ohanian** » Fri 08 Apr 2005, 18:36:45

Wow! It seems that even my ghastly predictions were too conservative.

My predictions was 180 cases for 7th April
where as the reality is 205 cases.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '&')gt;> As of 7 April, 205 cases of Marburg haemorrhagic fever have been reported in Angola. Of these, 180 have died. Zaire Province has reported its first 6 cases, bringing the number of affected provinces to seven, all concentrated in the north-western part of the country......

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Fri 08 Apr 2005, 19:05:22

The virus has always been so hot that it burns itself out - in the past anyway. If it hits a big city and breaks out, look out; international mayhem.

by **skiwi** » Sat 09 Apr 2005, 21:44:03

Medics attacked as deadly virus spreads

THE World Health Organisation (WHO) has halted a campaign in western Angola against an outbreak of Marburg virus after residents attacked its teams in apparent fear they could be spreading the deadly infection...

by **ohanian** » Sun 10 Apr 2005, 10:30:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that the death toll from the epidemic of Marburg hemorrhagic fever has jumped to 184 from a total of 213 cases recorded in Angola until Saturday.

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Sun 10 Apr 2005, 11:43:45

For anyone who never read The Hot Zone (non-fiction), you should know what it was about. There was an outbreak of ebola in Reston, Virginia, not too far from Washington D.C. It occurred in a monkey wearhouse. It was a mutated form of the virus which could move through the air. It moved through the airducts and infected the monkeys throughout the building. They quarantined the building and later razed it to the ground. This particular strain of ebola turned out not to be dangerous to humans, but it gave a lot of people a scare. Later the movie Outbreak was based loosely on what happenend as described in the book.

by **ohanian** » Sun 10 Apr 2005, 22:31:57

Reformatted for easier viewing.
Added back dated cases and deaths.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', '
a= 0.06335
k= 42.9387
c= 64.0613
n(t)=k * exp(a * t) + c
t cases death predicted cases
22-March-2005 0 107 100 107
23-March-2005 1 110
24-March-2005 2 113
25-March-2005 3 116
26-March-2005 4 119
27-March-2005 5 123 115 123
28-March-2005 6 124 117 127
29-March-2005 7 131
30-March-2005 8 132 127 135
31-March-2005 9 140 132 140
01-April-2005 10 145
02-April-2005 11 163 150 150
03-April-2005 12 156
04-April-2005 13 162
05-April-2005 14 181 156 168
06-April-2005 15 175
07-April-2005 16 200 174 182
08-April-2005 17 205 180 190
09-April-2005 18 213 198
10-April-2005 19 207
11-April-2005 20 217
12-April-2005 21 226
13-April-2005 22 237
14-April-2005 23 248
15-April-2005 24 260
16-April-2005 25 273
17-April-2005 26 287
18-April-2005 27 302
19-April-2005 28 317
20-April-2005 29 334
21-April-2005 30 351
22-April-2005 31 370
23-April-2005 32 390
24-April-2005 33 411
25-April-2005 34 434
26-April-2005 35 458
27-April-2005 36 484
28-April-2005 37 512
29-April-2005 38 541
30-April-2005 39 572

')

by **PenultimateManStanding** » Sun 10 Apr 2005, 22:45:45

All previous outbreaks of ebola did burn out and presumably the Marburg filovirus will do the same. As of this weekend it looks as though they haven't got a handle on it yet. If this thing ever gets to 'critical mass' then the world isn't going to have to worry about peak oil. Not likely given that the virus does not spread through the air but only through bodily fluids. And its too hot to spread very far (let's hope so, anyway).

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