[lorenzo]

This thread will show how we are going to swim in huge seas of grains, tubers, oilseeds, vegetables, and fertilizers again. We're going to have to throw away so much food. There's simply too much of it. Record harvests everywhere. Fertilizer prices collapsing. Oil prices down 50% or more. Seas of food, I tell you. Even in countries that used to be miserable begging bowls.

Let's start with this:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Seeking Africa's green revolution October 2008 - Weekly Update - BBC
From the begging bowl to the bread basket: in just two years, Malawi has gone from famine to food surplus - a minor agricultural miracle. [...]
The facts are these. During the last decade, Malawi suffered six successive years of food shortage, culminating in 2005. One third of the population - 4.5million people - went hungry.
Step forward two years, and Malawi is exporting more than one million metric tonnes of maize, its staple crop. link

[Loki]

I'm sure the millions of people who'll go to bed hungry tonight will feel much better now that you've started this thread.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', 'I')'m sure the millions of people who'll go to bed hungry tonight will feel much better now that you've started this thread.

[Loki]

Don't necessarily disagree with your last post. Not sure that purposefully manipulating the price of food is the answer, rather a dismantling of the globalist trade system and the reinstitution of those evil evil "trade barriers" that protect domestic industries, including agriculture.

As for biofuels, they don't seem to be the answer for the Third World given their difficulty feeding their current (over)populations, but I think it's just fine for the US as long as we produce the feedstock domestically and don't import it like Europe does. We can do whatever we damn well please with our own agricultural products, and as you've pointed out, our goal to "feed the world" is not good for anyone but a small cadre of corporate "farmers." That's why I have such low tolerance for the hysterical gnashing of teeth that goes on here at PO.com when it comes to biofuels and those poor poor Mexicans having to deal with rising corn prices, etc.

[mos6507]

Why do you say the price of fertilizer is collapsing when I've read countless articles about it going through the roof?

[lorenzo]

I'd agree with you on that point: biofuels have had the worldchanging effect that, for the first time in decades, agriculture has been back on the agenda of donor communities, development workers, aid institutions and third world governments.

Agriculture took up less than 2% of the World Bank budget -- can you imagine? with a world full of poor farmers --, until the "food crisis" broke out. Now it's n°1 priority again.

Agriculture took up less than 5% of the investments of many governments in third world countries, before the "food crisis" broke out. In these countries, where up to 85% of the population makes a living from farming. Can you imagine?

Biofuels have been the biggest blessing to humanity since the invention of the Haber-Bosch process, because they have made agriculture a priority again, after 30 disastrous years of inaction.

The developing world can easily -- and I mean, easily -- feed its own population and replace all oil produced by OPEC (there is no debate about this theoretical potential). But bad policies, both local and international, have created crazy conditions which have kept billions of farmers in poverty.

Now, at last, this is changing.

In any case, if food prices keep collapsing, the EU and the US should convene a summit and declare measures to prop up prices. Mass conversion of food into fuel may be one of the techniques. Another would be throwing away millions of tonnes, but that's something we've been doing so much in the past that it's become obscene. So, instead of throwing away millions of tonnes of food, like we usually do, we better convert that into energy. Biogas or what have you.

[kpeavey]

Oh Boy! Cheap food for storage! This is a good sign. Take advantage of it while it lasts.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'I')'d agree with you on that point: biofuels have had the worldchanging effect that, for the first time in decades, agriculture has been back on the agenda of donor communities, development workers, aid institutions and third world governments.

Agriculture took up less than 2% of the World Bank budget -- can you imagine? with a world full of poor farmers --, until the "food crisis" broke out. Now it's n°1 priority again.

Agriculture took up less than 5% of the investments of many governments in third world countries, before the "food crisis" broke out. In these countries, where up to 85% of the population makes a living from farming. Can you imagine?

Biofuels have been the biggest blessing to humanity since the invention of the Haber-Bosch process, because they have made agriculture a priority again, after 30 disastrous years of inaction.

The developing world can easily -- and I mean, easily -- feed its own population and replace all oil produced by OPEC (there is no debate about this theoretical potential). But bad policies, both local and international, have created crazy conditions which have kept billions of farmers in poverty.

Now, at last, this is changing.

In any case, if food prices keep collapsing, the EU and the US should convene a summit and declare measures to prop up prices. Mass conversion of food into fuel may be one of the techniques. Another would be throwing away millions of tonnes, but that's something we've been doing so much in the past that it's become obscene. So, instead of throwing away millions of tonnes of food, like we usually do, we better convert that into energy. Biogas or what have you.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')hy do you say the price of fertilizer is collapsing when I've read countless articles about it going through the roof?

[copious.abundance]

They're mostly done harvesting this year's corn crop, and the verdict is . . .

--> LINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]U.S. corn crop expected to be 12.2 billion bushels
Friday, October 10, 2008, 10:47 AM
by John Perkins

The United States Department of Agriculture's corn and soybean production estimates came out bigger than expected. If realized, it'd be the second largest corn crop ever and the fourth biggest soybean crop in U.S. history.

Corn's seen at 12.2 billion bushels, potentially the second largest in history and up 1% from last month's 12.072 billion, but down 7% from last year's record crop of 13.074 billion bushels. The average trade guess was 12.076 billion bushels, in a range of 11.841 billion to 12.250 billion bushels. The average yield is pegged at 154.0 bushels per acre, compared to September's 152.3 bushels per acre and the 2007 average of 151.1 bushels per acre. If realized, that would be the second highest yield ever, behind 2004. Estimates ranged from 149.3 to 155.0 bushels, with an average guess of 152.3 bushels per acre. For the month to month increase, the Ag Department cited rain in September improving conditions in the central Cornbelt, central Great Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley. However, lower yields were reported in a number of areas, with dry conditions in the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and Eastern Cornbelt pressuring yields in those areas, and damage to the crop from hurricane related heavy rain and high winds in the Delta and Missouri. Harvested area for 2008 came out at 79.197 million acres, compared to 2007's 86.542 million acres.

Soybeans were reported at 2.983 billion bushels, 2% more than September's projection of 2.934 billion bushels and 11% larger than 2007's total of 2.676 billion bushels. 2008's crop could the fourth largest in U.S. history. Prior to the report, estimates ranged from 2.847 billion to 3.001 billion bushels, with an average expectation of 2.920 billion bushels. The average yield is projected at 39.5 bushels per acre, compared to 40.0 a month ago and 41.7 a year ago. Analysts had been expecting yield to be around 39.9 bushels per acre, in a range of 38.9 to 40.9 bushels per acre. According to the Ag Department, the lower average yield projection for soybeans was on basically the same weather factors as corn. Specifically, the USDA points to steady to lower yields for most of the Cornbelt and Great Plains, Illinois and Kansas were the exceptions. Yields for the mid-Atlantic, Southeastern U.S., and lower Mississippi River Valley were steady to higher. 2008's harvested area for soybeans is seen at 75.479 million acres, compared to 2007's 64.141 million acres.

[...]

[Narz]

Yeah, glad I didn't take Roccland's brilliant advice & got into more debt in order to stock up on food.

[eastbay]

I wouldn't get too comfy with that corn crop data because the US will be burning a quarter to a third of it.

And that portion will be transfered directly into the atmosphere so people can drive lousy mileage cars and trucks. That's the way most Americans want it, so that's how it will be.

[copious.abundance]

--> LINK <--
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Domestic corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks above estimates
Friday, October 10, 2008, 12:38 PM
by John Perkins

The United States Department of Agriculture estimates of corn, soybean and wheat ending stocks came out larger than originally expected.

2008/09 U.S. wheat ending stocks were reported at 601 million bushels, compared to September's estimate of 574 million bushels and the 2007/08 total of 306 million bushels. Prior to the report, the average guess was 552 million bushels. The month to month increase is reflected by a few changes to the balance sheet. The production estimate is now 2.5 billion bushels, up 38 million from September, bringing the total supply to 2.905 billion bushels when factoring in beginning stocks and imports. Food and seed use estimates were left unchanged, while feed and residual use was raised 10 million to 260 million bushels, pushing the domestic use estimate to 1.304 billion bushels. Export held steady at 1.0 billion bushels. With the domestic use adjustment, total use is now seen at 2.304 billion bushels. The 2008/09 average farm price is estimated at $6.60 to $7.40, compared to $6.70 to $7.80 a month ago and $6.48 a year ago.

[...]

[IndigoMoon]

Just thinking out loud...
We did not know for how long that TPTB were playing with funny money. How are we to know that any report on crop harvests are correct?

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('IndigoMoon', 'J')ust thinking out loud...
We did not know for how long that TPTB were playing with funny money. How are we to know that any report on crop harvests are correct?

[eXpat]

That´s excellent!, thank you for sharing the good news!, there will be plenty of food at the queues for the soup .

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndia Gets Near-Normal Rain, Boosting Crop Prospects
By Subramaniam Sharma

Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- India received near-normal monsoon rains this season, improving prospects for record harvests of crops including rice, cotton and soybean.

[posiguy]

That is great, I was worried the stores wouldn't have enough food when the trucks stop running.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('OilFinder2', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')hy do you say the price of fertilizer is collapsing when I've read countless articles about it going through the roof?

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', 'W')hat about peak phosphorous?