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Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your hand.

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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby cube » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 21:48:28

*raises hand*

I'm too much of a city slicker to go anywhere.
I'm not a fan of the "escape from the city" mentality that so many people on this board have.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby JJ » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 21:54:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Loki', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', 'w')ebbots (which seemed to predict this collapse pretty well) predict China sized earthquake Dec 10 for Pacific Northwest.

Umm, OK. Maybe you an enlighten me as to the empirical evidence that these 'webbots' are basing their conclusions. I've never seen a webbot collect field data.


haha point.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Jenab6 » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 22:54:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', 'W')e can make it...
Make what? Be the Omega Man? There won't any medals being passed out, you know.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6 (context restored)', 'M')y area (Pocahontas County) has farms, animal ranches (cows, sheep, horses, goats) and locally grown animal feed. And a low population density, mostly hard working White people. We can make it, I think, if the government doesn't mess with the local economy.

I was idiomatically referring to my opinion that Pocahontas County can feed itself, unless soldiers or other thieves come in and steal the food we produce. If there were some kind of magical force field that wouldn't let any people in or out of the county and blocked all communication into or out of the county, the result would not be the starvation of anyone here, provided that the land were correctly used and that the produce was widely distributed. No place in the county is more than a few miles from a farm or a ranch, and most likely several farms and ranches. Its area is 940 square miles, and the population is just shy of 10,000: about 10 people per square mile. We can eat what we grow, and grow what we eat, and raise animals too. That's what I meant by "making it."
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 12:10:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '.')..Pocahontas County can feed itself, unless soldiers or other thieves come in and steal the food we produce.
Let's assume for a moment this will not happen. Then what? You and your fellow countymen are the last living people in the US?
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby gampy » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 12:20:41

Wow, hard to judge when to head for the exits.

That's always a tough call. Some get it right, many get it wrong.

I would like to think I am savvy enough to avoid getting caught in a martial law type scenario, but I am sure there were many folks on trains to Auschwitz who thought the same.

I am always prepared to pick up and run if need be. I am not so attached to possesions, or my current life, that I could not turn on the news, and be out the door and on my way in 1 hour.
"Some people are like Slinky's. They don't serve a useful purpose, but they still bring a smile to your face when you push them down the stairs."
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby nobodypanic » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 12:28:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ben', ' ')
It's probably instinctual for us to react to a crisis like this with the idea of trying to run, or stock up years of food as if preparing for a long winter, but this in my view is pointless because there's nowhere to run and the winter is not going to end.

i think you've made some great points. but i also think that there's something to be said for the idea that you don't have to outlive the winter; you just have to outlive your neighbors. if you can do that, then the land could sustain the reduced numbers (including you). of course that notion presupposes a really terminal tailspin w/drastic die-offs, which isn't a foregone outcome.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 15:26:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '*')raises hand*

I'm too much of a city slicker to go anywhere.
I'm not a fan of the "escape from the city" mentality that so many people on this board have.
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Escape From New York.

Ahhh, that book and movie were among my earliest doomer influences.

I'm sure I'm not the only one.

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:)
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Pops » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 16:00:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'W')ow, hard to judge when to head for the exits.


I'm thinking if one really feels a dash for the exit will be needed at some point, then perhaps the best strategy is to stroll through now and avoid the rush.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 16:26:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'W')ow, hard to judge when to head for the exits.
I'm thinking if one really feels a dash for the exit will be needed at some point, then perhaps the best strategy is to stroll through now and avoid the rush.
Or wait for the crowd the stampede itself to death first, then stroll through.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 17:06:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'W')ow, hard to judge when to head for the exits.
I'm thinking if one really feels a dash for the exit will be needed at some point, then perhaps the best strategy is to stroll through now and avoid the rush.
Or wait for the crowd the stampede itself to death first, then stroll through.


That's the problem really for me, I started looking at the whole thing in seriousness back in early 2005, the problem was that I realized to really make something self sufficent you need really a small community with different skill sets, the problem being that those people are (in a way) hard to find. Then there is the question of how long it would take you to set things up and running and truly be self sufficent.

My estimation was that it would take at least three years for this group to iron out the kinks and really be able to "button up the hatches" and I also admit I did not expect things taking a turn to the ugly so quickly. I somewhat counted in my preparations on seeing the cracks in 2010 and having 5 years from there on out. Now it looks like the whole thing could be in full blown crisis mode by 2010.

As much as the instinct would be to "run to the hills" I really don't have that option, so I am just watching and wondering what all the people will do that have family with little kids, at least I only have to worry about myself.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 17:15:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'W')ow, hard to judge when to head for the exits.
I'm thinking if one really feels a dash for the exit will be needed at some point, then perhaps the best strategy is to stroll through now and avoid the rush.
Or wait for the crowd the stampede itself to death first, then stroll through.
I somewhat counted in my preparations on seeing the cracks in 2010 and having 5 years from there on out. Now it looks like the whole thing could be in full blown crisis mode by 2010.
Don't go by me, or worse, don't quote me around, but I don't see the a need to panic and run for the hills now in the middle of a stampede. I'm giving a few years before it gets to that point.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 17:18:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'W')ow, hard to judge when to head for the exits.
I'm thinking if one really feels a dash for the exit will be needed at some point, then perhaps the best strategy is to stroll through now and avoid the rush.
Or wait for the crowd the stampede itself to death first, then stroll through.
I somewhat counted in my preparations on seeing the cracks in 2010 and having 5 years from there on out. Now it looks like the whole thing could be in full blown crisis mode by 2010.
Don't go by me, or worse, don't quote me around, but I don't see the a need to panic and run for the hills now in the middle of a stampede. I'm giving a few years before it gets to that point.

Oh, I don't think you should run with the herd, either you're out before the herd starts moving or you better sit back and wait being in the middle of a panicked herd just gives you a good chance of being trampled.

But simply put: I'd rather be out BEFORE everybody else and that's now not an option. Ironically enough my job and lifelyhood may just be "safe" much more than I would have thought hanging sort of a bank here and regardless of what happens they will still be around in one form or another and as I haven't nailed myself to a lot of debt and really haven't been heavily into spending money I (don't) have I am looking a bit more relaxed into the future right now, but the bad feeling in the gut still remains.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 17:35:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gampy', 'W')ow, hard to judge when to head for the exits.
I'm thinking if one really feels a dash for the exit will be needed at some point, then perhaps the best strategy is to stroll through now and avoid the rush.
Or wait for the crowd the stampede itself to death first, then stroll through.
I somewhat counted in my preparations on seeing the cracks in 2010 and having 5 years from there on out. Now it looks like the whole thing could be in full blown crisis mode by 2010.
Don't go by me, or worse, don't quote me around, but I don't see the a need to panic and run for the hills now in the middle of a stampede. I'm giving a few years before it gets to that point.Oh, I don't think you should run with the herd, either you're out before the herd starts moving or you better sit back and wait being in the middle of a panicked herd just gives you a good chance of being trampled.This chat is making me visualize the herds crossing crocodile-infested rivers in Africa. They know they have to cross to find food. Then the panicky stampede. Some are attacked before they can swim 20 feet. Some just drown. Some reach the opposite bank but can't climb it, and are attacked too. Some calves are separated from their mothers and just die of hunger. Funny, some lucky bastards wait to see where the crocodiles are and aren't, where it's easier to climb the bank, wait for the crocodiles to be done attacking, etc. Key word being lucky. I'm counting on luck. I have no skills to survive the panicky stampede.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Auntie_Cipation » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 17:41:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '.')..Pocahontas County can feed itself, unless soldiers or other thieves come in and steal the food we produce.
Let's assume for a moment this will not happen. Then what? You and your fellow countymen are the last living people in the US?


Of course not -- his isn't the only community that can feed itself.

But isn't that more or less the point, after all? If we've gotten in over our heads by using cheap oil (and fiat currencies) to the point where we are, societally and globally speaking, living beyond our means, then what other solution is there but to return to living within our means? Community by community. Any place that isn't very close to sustainable will fail as a community. The individuals that make up that community will either die or migrate (and some, up to the sustainable population, might remain).

What else is there, given what's coming, but to become part of a sustainable community? And those of us who see what's happening, are the ones who can help prepare our communities now to become sustainable as quickly as we can.

Any other attempts at a solution that I've heard -- from techno-fixes, to intensive urban greenhouse-pods, to terraforming other planets, are only an extension of our temporary ability to live beyond our means. Not to mention mostly infeasible. So, what else is there?
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 17:43:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'F')unny, some lucky bastards wait to see where the crocodiles are and aren't, where it's easier to climb the bank, wait for the crocodiles to be done attacking, etc. Key word being lucky. I'm counting on luck. I have no skills to survive the panicky stampede.


I have essentially relied on myself most of my life (for a variety of reasons), ironically enough because of that I have been at times too helpful to people I shouldn't have because I sort of figured that not everybody should have to fight for themselves as I had to do quite a long time.

What I am getting at is: Don't sell yourself short. It's more about adaptability than anything else. The ones really screwed are people with "specialized skills", the true "hero" in this will in the end be the "Jack of of all Trades" because they tend to be easier to adapt to a changing environment. The ones drowning or eaten by the crocodiles are the "one trick wonders".
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 17:51:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Auntie_Cipation', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jenab6', '.')..Pocahontas County can feed itself, unless soldiers or other thieves come in and steal the food we produce.
Let's assume for a moment this will not happen. Then what? You and your fellow countymen are the last living people in the US?
So, what else is there?
Your argument is bullet-proof and I agree with it. Jenab6 wrote, in summary, I don't need to run for hills because I already live in one, my neighbors and I can take care of ourselves "unless soldiers or other thieves come in and steal the food we produce". I hope not, but think it's a self-fulling prophecy.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 17:55:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', 'T')he ones really screwed are people with "specialized skills", the true "hero" in this will in the end be the "Jack of of all Trades" because they tend to be easier to adapt to a changing environment. The ones drowning or eaten by the crocodiles are the "one trick wonders".
You're very kind, but I'm afraid I'm a one trick wonder, if that.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Auntie_Cipation » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 19:57:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', 'J')enab6 wrote, in summary, I don't need to run for hills because I already live in one, my neighbors and I can take care of ourselves "unless soldiers or other thieves come in and steal the food we produce". I hope not, but think it's a self-fulling prophecy.


I certainly agree that no self-sufficient community is likely to be just left in peace while there is trouble nearby.

But still, I'm left with "what else is there to do?"

I suppose then one can decide how one feels about defense, but IMO that's a separate issue than striving for sustainability.

You can get sustainable and then prepare to defend your resources, or you can get sustainable and then decide to rely on hope/luck/karma to keep you safe, or you can get sustainable and then strategize how to include or otherwise respond to those who would take your resources.

But all options start with "get sustainable"! [smilie=icon_flower.gif]

I'm in the same boat as jenab -- my community has definite potential to be sustainable, given our climate, soil, and current/historical (low) population. Of course, we can never say with certainty that we'll be ok, only that we have the *potential* to be -- we have less people than our local resources can support. If a million people decide to bug-out here, that changes our resource balance considerably. Same with the soldiers/thieves.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Pops » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 20:11:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '.')..self sufficent you need really a small community with different skill sets, the problem being that those people are (in a way) hard to find. Then there is the question of how long it would take you to set things up and running and truly be self sufficent.

My estimation was that it would take at least three years for this group to iron out the kinks and really be able to "button up the hatches" and I also admit I did not expect things taking a turn to the ugly so quickly.

Good points Snow.

The deal is there are still communities (they used to be called towns) all around with generations of experience to share with someone willing to learn.

I moved to an established community and after 4 years I'm only now getting somewhat set up - even with the help of folks who have lived here 60 years - none of them nor I are self-sufficient; just a little less dependent.

Yea, things are looking ugly but we ain't seen nothing yet, I'm only 50 but have seen worse.

Still time for people to make a change, search PO for 5 rules....
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Everyone who is NOT heading for the hills, raise your ha

Unread postby Snowrunner » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 22:01:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') moved to an established community and after 4 years I'm only now getting somewhat set up - even with the help of folks who have lived here 60 years - none of them nor I are self-sufficient; just a little less dependent.


The three years were a minimum depending on "how far" you wanted to push it. I started reading quite a few books about agriculture etc. at the turn of the last century, before mass industrialization and tried to map out what exactly would be needed to make this work. The map grew 'effing big very quickly, mainly in the amount of different skills you need. Also looking at just how much food people really need with hard labor is just mind boggeling at times and you are getting in this really nasty "sea-sawing" when you realize you need another person with skill X but that person needs to eat too which increases your food requirement by Y etc.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ea, things are looking ugly but we ain't seen nothing yet, I'm only 50 but have seen worse.

Still time for people to make a change, search PO for 5 rules....


Nothing has happened yet. I think the people posting on here, looking ahead see way further out than the average person. There is a lot of not understanding on what is going on (and that's just towards the financial aspect of it). Most people around me are looking at this and see "something" happen and are under the blissfull impression that things will be gone. People do not grasp the enormity of the problem we are facing alone in the financial system and I think lots and lots will be hit straight in the face.

Having said this, I am still not sure if it will hurt any less if you see the wall coming and put your arms out ahead of you.

I do admit I gave into my "doomer mood" over the weekend and added roughly another two weeks worth of non-perishable food (from one week I had on hand), but I am really questioning if the worst case scenario does happen, will it really make a difference?
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