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Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collapses?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby gampy » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 18:00:57

There is certainly a lot of hysteria going on here lately.

I honestly don't know if it's as bad as some make it out to be. I am certainly concerned for my parents' mutual funds, and retirement savings plan (they would suffer for it more than I), but I don't think the world will grind to halt come next Friday. Might slow down a little, and a few cogs might break, but those cogs need to be replaced anyways. Just as well we are experiencing this in a relative time of peace.

Inflation (or stagflation) will certainly occur, but I am doubtful that we will see a Weimar-type collapse.

I am thinking along the lines of 1970's New York City (only nation-wide.) Poverty and crime increases, and infrastructure gets ignored for a decade.

The US decides to re-arrange it's priorities. The military is reduced.
Entitlements are reduced.

But life will go on.

Just a bump on the gentle downslope of the bell curve, methinks.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 18:22:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Snowrunner', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gebari', 'E')conomic booms in Europe? About as unlikely as me being Lord Lucan. Parts of Europe are being harder hit by this mess even than the US - look at Iceland and Ireland. My country is also being seriously affected. We live in a global ecomomy now and if the US goes down it will bring the rest of the world with it. Nobody will escape.


Sure, the question is to what extend though.

I think Iceland, Ireland and Britain are horrible examples of Europe as a whole though.

First of all they are all "islands" (more or less) and they based their economies around the thing that could move the easiest: Services and Money. Both of which can as quicly disappear as they can be attracted.

Secondly, Europe as a whole still proves an interesting alternative to the United States now with a common currency, land connections to Russia and China, both of which I think will play a new role, simply due to the size of their resources or population.

Of course, if we do see another mass migration Europe may just end up being overrun, but that's something time will tell.

Overall, I don't think ANYBODY here right now can acurately predict how this will play out, we're only at the beginning. Or to put it in Rumsfeldish: "There are man unknown unknowns."


The likelihood of an Economic boom in Europe is about as good as a resurgence of the port of New Orleans. The ONLY reason Europe got rebuilt after the 2nd World War was because of Oil and the basically Free Food it produced in the farm belt of the US. This economic model is history now, and I am hard pressed to see where Europe will get its food to support the current population, particularly with LoC frozen up and ships and goods stacking up at the docks.

The only trade I see possible right now would be direct Barter, Food for Oil. If you are in a region that has a supply of Oil, you can trade it for food. However, any ships carrying either food or oil would be subject to Piracy, and so all such movement of goods this way has to be in Convoys with Battleships protecting the container ships. Obviously also, your submarines become very important in this situation, just like the U-Boats of WWII, except the subs the US has these days area quite a bit better.

Given that the absolute number of military convoys possible is much smaller than the daily movement of individual ships, you are going to see a major slowdown in international shipping until it is organized up under military rule. Instead of one Super Tanker leaving a port somewhere, 10 of them will be filled and accompanied by a battle group including Aircraft Carriers, Battleships and Attack Submarines. Whether such a convoy can withstand an attack from Cruise Missiles and unpiloted remote aircraft remains to be seen.

the Chinese are of course the Big Wild Card here, as they have built a large production apparatus over the years, but neither can they insure the necessary importation of oil with their own Ocean Armada. So the Chinese at least in the short term are beholden to the superior military force that DOES control the High Seas at the moment, the US Military. In both cases of the Chinese and the US though, the simple fact they will have so many internal problems to resolve makes it hard for either the production facilities of China or the Military Hardware of the US to keep funtioning all that well. Its simply the next card to go down in the Cascade Failure.

In all likelihood, the Big Weapons and Big Boats will all go down in a major battle which lasts a few years, assuming we don't suffocate from methane first. Strategic resources will be protected, but governments will topple and it will gradually devolve into chaos in individual locations. If somebody doesn't push the button on a Nuke here in this scenario it would be a Miracle. However, the survival instinct is strong, and so MAD may keep the nukes from flying for a while as the conventional war and economic battle is waged downward. War makes for strange bedfellows, and you will see shifting alliances as countries and populations try to position themselves for survival regardless of ideology.

The economic game of Dog Eat Dog on Wall Street is in its Death Throes. Now will be the time of War Lords rather than Bankers. The first shots have already been fired, just I think people don't grasp yet that some US Helicopters being shot at in Pakistan is the equivalent of Archduke Ferdinand being shot in Austria-Hungary. In the history that probably never will be written, this is the Shot Heard Round the World. The bullets will be flying in earnest here soon, no doubt.

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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby StuckInPhilly » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 18:28:23

Whether it is a soft or hard crash, I do think we will break into separate countries. The US is way too big now and will be too tough to try and maintain once things crumble.
It seems that in times of stress people tend to want to eliminate others that are "different".
My guess is that we'll end up with four or five different areas.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 19:42:41

Around here people would suck it up and go on, unless the government did something really stupid like try to take away people's guns. Then there might be civil war, between the people and the government. I guess they'd call that an insurrection.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby mrobert » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 19:51:32

@starsky: You are typical american retard. Do you know that?

I live in Romania. What do you think it looks like? Let me tell you.
I just watched a great movie on my home setup, living in a brand new condo on top of the city, with everything fully automated (garage door, lights, etc). I have electronically controled heating in the house. Warmer at night, slightly lower during the day.

I drive a turbocharged sports car. Just been to McDonalds with my girlfriend for some double cheeseburgers at 1:00 AM.

My cellphone, blackberry and internet services are of great quality and come dirt-cheap. ($15 broadband internet with TV and land line telephone included).

Friends enjoy free wireless internet at my place.

Basically ... you name it, and we got it.
Paid for, with hard cold cash, not "fixed rate home equity credits".

Get your sh*t together. America is not the center of the universe, and if you vanish, we can't care less, honestly. As said above, we will be fine.

Please visit my town if you want to see virtually any kind of exotic car you can think of ... paid for in cash, parked somewhere.

Today I saw an SLR McLaren limited edition, yesterday an Aston Martin DBS, and virtually any exotic that exists.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby ushoys » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 20:04:11

Home movies, a garage opener, central heating, a cell phone, internet AND McDonald's Mrobert? I'm sure everyone here is very jealous of your fabulous lifestyle.

But please check back with us in a year or so to tell us how you're doing then.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby JustaGirl » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 23:11:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '[')b]@starsky: You are typical american retard. Do you know that?

I live in Romania. What do you think it looks like? Let me tell you.
I just watched a great movie on my home setup, living in a brand new condo on top of the city, with everything fully automated (garage door, lights, etc). I have electronically controled heating in the house. Warmer at night, slightly lower during the day.

I drive a turbocharged sports car. Just been to McDonalds with my girlfriend for some double cheeseburgers at 1:00 AM.

My cellphone, blackberry and internet services are of great quality and come dirt-cheap. ($15 broadband internet with TV and land line telephone included).

Friends enjoy free wireless internet at my place.

Basically ... you name it, and we got it.
Paid for, with hard cold cash, not "fixed rate home equity credits".

Get your sh*t together. America is not the center of the universe, and if you vanish, we can't care less, honestly. As said above, we will be fine.

Please visit my town if you want to see virtually any kind of exotic car you can think of ... paid for in cash, parked somewhere.

Today I saw an SLR McLaren limited edition, yesterday an Aston Martin DBS, and virtually any exotic that exists.


And you just described an 'American retard' to a T! Is that what you're striving to be, because you are right on track :lol:
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby Revi » Sat 11 Oct 2008, 23:24:21

I think it's going to be really really unfun for a while. No more taking out a hundo from the ATM, getting gas, going out to dinner and the movies.

And it may even get worse than that!
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby mrobert » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 05:29:31

@JustaGirl:

What makes you think I 'strive' to become one? Not by far honestly.
Do you think it's wrong to benefit from whatever life has to offer? I don't think so.

As long as I am completely aware of the world around me, and don't live in a way that is not sustainable or unafodable, I don't see anything wrong.

Looking at a person who drives a car and eats a BigMac, as a cause of the problem ... that's plain stupid.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby gampy » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 07:40:54

People in North America look at Romania, and automatically see gypsies, communists, or vampires.
Americans are very parochial, even the educated ones.

Mind you, there certainly is the stereotype of the ignorant, gun-totin', and cheeseburger eating American that pervades Europe as well. People everywhere are predjudiced, and ignorant.

America doesn't have the patent on that. Yet.

But I understand your frustration. This board is made up mostly of Americans, and there sure are a few of the stereotypical variety here.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby mrobert » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 08:09:04

I am not frustrated.
I am trying to point out that assumptions like:

"My country is the best thing on the planet, everybody else lives in the forest, and regardless of what we do, you will have to put up with us, because without us you are lost" ... won't take you anywhere else but in the wrong direction.

I never used a stereotype to define any nation/race/etc.

I know a lot of fine folks personally, which are american or black or gypsies or germans or english or canadians or whatever else.

I grew up without having any kind of access to information, yet I don't make "assumptions" ... but when I see an american who spent his entire life having the freedom and means to gain any kind of information, make such statements ... there is really nothing more I can say, other than he/she is a retard.

Have you ever bothered to look at a free map on the internet and see what Romania is about?
20 million people, living in a country that has EVERYTHING.

There is a river crossing every city for supplying water, we have oil, gas, huge forests, a lot of great agricultural land.
We have nuclear, he have a GIANT capacity of hidroelectric power.
We have coal.
We have huge desposits of salt, or minerals.
Name one thing, and we have it. In large quantities.

Trust me. If the US of A goes to hell, we will still have gas in our tanks, natural gas on our homes, wood, plenty of electricity (we are a net exporting country).

We have a huge railroad infrastructure (ok, not in an amazing shape, but all it's needed is some refurbishing).

We have airports all over the country and so on.

We have access to the sea and the Danube (for cheap transportation on water).

You can get all the organic food in the world, for a few cents if that's what you want.

----
Do your homework before making assumptions that we will die.
We won't ... and we will party for a very long time to come.

Oh yeah ... and do consider invading us with an army. Next time I might post some history lessons on how hard it has been in the past 1000 years, for everyone from the otomans to the nazis, to screw us over :)
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 11:35:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('StuckInPhilly', 'W')hether it is a soft or hard crash, I do think we will break into separate countries.
Is this your final answer, or would you like to make a phone call?
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby gampy » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 11:50:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'I') am not frustrated.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '
')Oh yeah ... and do consider invading us with an army. Next time I might post some history lessons on how hard it has been in the past 1000 years, for everyone from the otomans to the nazis, to screw us over :)


Lol, my friend, we all have chips on our shoulders when it comes to Americans. It's human nature. Just as it is their nature to feel smug.

Nothing inherently evil about that. They have a rich, militarily superior country. Their products, and culture (for lack of a better term) are dominant, and ubiquitous in the world. If I was American, I would probably feel a little smug, too.

Canadians have always had a love/hate, passive /aggressive relationship with the US.

Take solace, and pride in that Romania probably would do much better in a TEOTWAWKI scenario.

Also remember that nationalism, and too much pride in a farking border, or piece of coloured cloth on a pole is just silly.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 11:54:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '[')b]@starsky: You are typical american retard. Do you know that?
I'm sure he does.

You're right, it's very insulting, ignorant and arrogant to believe and insinuate Romania is stuck in the Count Dracula days and God forbids we live like Romanians. J6P doesn't travel or follow international news, and anyone offended is probably not average. (Last night we had a neighbor for supper and he asked "they speak other languages in Brazil?")

However, I'm sure you'll agree the Romanian life-style changed a lot since Ceauşescu's death on Christmas 1989. I was living nearby, and remember what Romania looked like in the 80's.

That said, I read your report with saddness in my heart. To think that people who know hardship like nobody's business are aspiring and living like us here in the US, it's not the Romania I had pictured in mind. It's sad to hear America's #1 export, frivolous life-style, doing so well abroad.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 12:01:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'A')s long as I am completely aware of the world around me...
Which you aren't. Nobody is.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '.')..and don't live in a way that is not sustainable or unaffordable...
Which you do. The very fact you use a computer shows that.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', '.')..I don't see anything wrong.
Who's judging who now?
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 12:12:36

MRobert, it is precisely your realization that, yes, the rest of the world can make do without America, that will bring on America's end. No the end won't be because of this current economic crisis. The lack of money is the reason why we won't shoot back, not the reason why we go down in the first place.

Incidentally, speaking of dark things out there, most of them just north of you, what are you seeing? Is there word on the street about what is happening vis a vis the Russians and the old Soviet bloc countries? Do you hear anything about the intent behind the invasion of Georgia? Where has Romania's wealth come from (energy, industry, etc) and what sort of financial structure does it consist of? Will you escape notice when the bear stirs or will his paw swipe you as he wakes from his slumber?
When it comes down to it, the people will always shout, "Free Barabbas." They love Barabbas. He's one of them. He has the same dreams. He does what they wish they could do. That other guy is more removed, more inscrutable. He makes them think. "Crucify him."
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby mrobert » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 13:59:31

@gampy: I was never a patriot of any kind. I personally find the concept to be silly. I was just trying to point out the fact that we don't live in the forests in small huts.

@VMarcHart: Until '89, Romania looked pretty wad. But we did however inherit a giant industrial infrastructure (Some 4-5 refineries, a lot of hydro power, railroads, etc).
We are not aspiring to live like americans. We aspire for a better life. How come that when americans can't afford something, all of a sudden that thing is 'BAD'? Keep in mind that we pay with *cash* if we ever go to McDonalds or buy gas. And if and when we can't afford that, we will just stop doing that. No foreclosures coming, nothing. We do have our fair share of local J6P's, but not that many.

Personally, I work in the software industry, live in a big city and so on. But my plan for the future is to build a nice house (actually just getting started with that), near my hometown, in a village, on a piece of land my parents own. I am going to have a small farm there also. And a lot of people here do that. We are making money to make a future in which we don't depend on cars, imported food, etc.

I am talented software developer, but take me to a farm and I can help you out with everything you want. Animals, gardening, building and fixing things, etc.

It's in our culture not to depend on anyone or anything.

@evilgenius: The world won't end. There is no 'crisis'. It's just the markets regulating people who live above their means.

There are no worries here about Russia. We never really messed with them, or they with us (in terms of doing something bad). Russian are very interesting people.
I have a large business partner from Russia ... and our work is highly lucrative. Here is a funny thing. I just woke up one morning that I work in the software industry, and 20% of my company's revenue comes from Russia. Funny thing ... don't you think?

Our wealth comes mainly from agriculture, livestock, and industry.
We don't depend that much on tourism, services, etc. There is a lot of wood furniture being made here and exported. It's pretty sustainable :) And as for food, we have the ability to export a lot of it.

As a funny thing, we have giant amounts of mineraly sparkling water. Without being patriotic, it's the best I have tried in the world (and I have tried plenty).
And in some places, it just flows for free near the road, down the drain. It costs 15 cents a bottle to buy it. It has an awesome taste.
We also have several types of sulfuric, iron and other high mineral content waters, proven to be very healthy.

And, we have GIGANTIC salt deposits. You might laugh, but the rest of the world pays more then us, for the salt (we pay 30 cents for 1 Kg) ... or even 5 cents, if I buy in bulk.

What else? A huge production of organic honey of all kinds.

As for finance, it's still a heavily cash and savings based society.
Just dare to say something good about 'credits' in mom's house, and you will hear her raise her voice. I was raised and thought to save money and live within my means. And turn of the damn lights if I don't need them.

And some of the best dirt-cheap wines can be found here. They are selling "premium wines" in Europe which would be considered crap here. And premium wines cost from $5 a bottle here.

Pretty much this is our wealth. Not services, not depletable resources, but things that can be made and sold for hundreds of years to come.

Don't worry about the russians. They have a better interest in waiting for the huge trains to come with food from us, than to nuke us :)
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 14:11:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '
')Anyway, USA won't allow the world to go on while they collapse, that's why I see world war 3 and Olduvai. Our story will end as it began, in caverns.
yep, pretty much sums it up. The US is not Zimbabwe. In 1960 the US was God. That is ingrained in the psyches of all the power brokers. If the US is going down, the World is coming with us.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 16:24:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'U')ntil '89, Romania looked pretty wad. But we did however inherit a giant industrial infrastructure (Some 4-5 refineries, a lot of hydro power, railroads, etc).
We are not aspiring to live like americans. We aspire for a better life. How come that when americans can't afford something, all of a sudden that thing is 'BAD'? Keep in mind that we pay with *cash* if we ever go to McDonalds or buy gas. And if and when we can't afford that, we will just stop doing that. No foreclosures coming, nothing. We do have our fair share of local J6P's, but not that many.

Personally, I work in the software industry, live in a big city and so on. But my plan for the future is to build a nice house (actually just getting started with that), near my hometown, in a village, on a piece of land my parents own. I am going to have a small farm there also. And a lot of people here do that. We are making money to make a future in which we don't depend on cars, imported food, etc.

I am talented software developer, but take me to a farm and I can help you out with everything you want. Animals, gardening, building and fixing things, etc.

It's in our culture not to depend on anyone or anything.
Until now I thought your feelings were hurt, duly so, because a numbskull assumed your country is all about horse and buggy. Now you're making a fool of yourself, and of your country.
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Your Opinion: What will happen if the US economy collaps

Unread postby Quinny » Sun 12 Oct 2008, 16:29:29

What's foolish about what he said?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('VMarcHart', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mrobert', 'U')ntil '89, Romania looked pretty wad. But we did however inherit a giant industrial infrastructure (Some 4-5 refineries, a lot of hydro power, railroads, etc).
We are not aspiring to live like americans. We aspire for a better life. How come that when americans can't afford something, all of a sudden that thing is 'BAD'? Keep in mind that we pay with *cash* if we ever go to McDonalds or buy gas. And if and when we can't afford that, we will just stop doing that. No foreclosures coming, nothing. We do have our fair share of local J6P's, but not that many.

Personally, I work in the software industry, live in a big city and so on. But my plan for the future is to build a nice house (actually just getting started with that), near my hometown, in a village, on a piece of land my parents own. I am going to have a small farm there also. And a lot of people here do that. We are making money to make a future in which we don't depend on cars, imported food, etc.

I am talented software developer, but take me to a farm and I can help you out with everything you want. Animals, gardening, building and fixing things, etc.

It's in our culture not to depend on anyone or anything.
Until now I thought your feelings were hurt, duly so, because a numbskull assumed your country is all about horse and buggy. Now you're making a fool of yourself, and of your country.
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